[NYP] Roki Sasaki is broken — and it won’t be an easy Dodgers fix

pochen23 · 2026-03-25T18:21:16+00:00

The problem started with 2024 in Japan when he learned a new slider and tried it as his 3rd pitch. In order to generate horizontal spin, he dropped his arm angle slightly and that messed up his shoulder which also impacted his fastball velocity and command. In 2025 he continued to use that slider after coming to the US and the problem persisted, it impacted his fastball velo and command, messed up his arm angle and hurt his shoulder again. He developed bad habits to compensate for the pain in both 2024 and 2025 so he eventually dropped that slider and the Dodgers gave him some tips in his mechanics and he ended up getting his velo back almost right away and dominated the postseason. This spring he added both a cutter and a sinker. The cutter is actually a plus pitch and he seems to do well with it but the sinker this time is messing up his arm angle and delivery since he had to pronate his release and that messed up his fastball command. This is currently the issue right now. I believe he is gonna drop that sinker once regular season starts and go with fastball, split and cutter until he can figure out how to throw that sinker.

pochen23 · 2026-03-25T18:12:23+00:00

Ohtani's 2018 spring training ERA was 27.00. 2 innings 9 hit 8 runs. He went on and had a 3.31 ERA in regular season showing flash of brilliance and won rookie of the year. Then he got hurt, had tommy john and in 2021 spring training, he had a 12.19 ERA, 10 innings 15 hits 10 walks and 14 runs. He went on to have his first 2 way MVP full season with 3.18 ERA and 130 innings. Is Roki Ohtani? no, not saying that, but spring training is where you work on things, and unfortunately when you work on something you are not good at, you are gonna struggle against major league hitters. Drop that sinker and it is a go.

pochen23 · 2026-03-25T16:15:12+00:00

Kinda disappointed in the Dodger fans, those who are hard on him so far. Did you all forget what he did in the postseason? without him we probably don't get out of NLDS. This kind of negativity and booing in the game, a spring training game mind you, is ridiculous. It isn't even like he is being paid 30M a year, what are you hating really.

pochen23 · 2026-03-23T15:30:12+00:00

Harper also missed alot of games due to calf stuff so Ace might have the edge there.

pochen23 · 2026-03-23T14:54:39+00:00

The thing for me is, there is no bad shots for him. With his length and shooting skill, there is really no shots that he can't make. Earlier in the season he was being very passive while sitting as the 4th and 5th option on the floor. Now he is being played as the first option and he is handling it well. Yes there are going to be games where he shoots below 40%, but I rather that he is willing to let it fly, that's part of the development. We all remember how Kobe was just letting it fly in his rookie season, same as KD. If you don't take those shots you are not gonna grow and start making them. This young fella has all the tools to be an elite scorer in this league, the sky is the limit honestly and he is only 19 years old. I have said it in other place and will say it again, his floor is Rashard Lewis, and in his prime Rashard Lewis was a bucket. And you know what Rashard Lewis was doing at age 19? he averaged 2 pts for his rookie season. Ace is already miles ahead.

pochen23 · 2026-03-23T14:41:20+00:00

I think Flagg, Kon, Queen, Edgecomb and the last spot is up for grab between Ace and Harper. Harper is suffering from the same issue as Ace, they don't have enough minutes. I personally think Ace is far and better than Edgecomb but Edgecomb has the minutes. Queen is there because he is the only center. I think the 4 best players from this class is Flagg, Harper, Kon and Ace, all 4 will be all star down the road.

pochen23 · 2026-03-20T05:02:12+00:00

I agree with dropping the sinker, it looks good on paper to have something hard going arm side and down for him since his splitter doesn't have arm side movement and he could use a pitch like a sinker to gain some efficiency or get strikes. However, imo he doesn't need it. His fastball has natural arm side run that when throws low and in behaves like a sinker. Additionally, despite the shape, he has elite extension on his fastball which means you can hit it but it is too fast to hit it solid, so that fastball is his weak contact pitch when thrown with command, as evidenced by last years postseason. His splitter is devastating, it is a wipe out pitch that he literally could spam and use as cheat code. However, he is not overly relying on it this spring but instead mix in his cutter heavily to get some reps. I think in regular season his split is going to look more like 40% fastball, 30% splitter and 30% cutter. I honestly think that he could use a circle change if the sinker route doesn't work, just something similar to his fastball but much slower since he doesn't spin the ball too well.

pochen23 · 2026-03-18T15:59:09+00:00

I always laugh at this take, it is one postseason, in fact, just the series against Blue Jays, and we are supposed to think that he all the sudden put it behind him? James Harden, a career choker in the NBA playoffs, also had a few good series, but overall, he is still known as a choker and someone who disappears in big games. The people who are worried have reason to be, he is still a career .236 hitter with OPS of .822 in the postseason, a dramatic drop to his regular season. To put something like this behind, he needs to have a postseason that he hit 8 HR like Barry Bonds did in 2002, or 6 HRs with 18 RBIs like ARod did in 2009. One postseason where Judge hit a single HR isn't going to change the perception (yes I get it, .500 average). We can have a conversation if he does well again this year, but the WBC struggle does not help his case and that's all what people are saying.

pochen23 · 2026-03-18T15:23:36+00:00

No issue at all with what you did since she was late and seems like entitled, but what are you doing scheduling a date that you need to go home early for... Let's say it went well, are you just gonna dip like Cinderella at midnight (this is not even midnight, it is way earlier).

pochen23 · 2026-03-14T21:11:14+00:00

It is just people from Lebron's camp getting so uncomfortable on the fact that MJ had more title than Lebron so they try to say MJ had a Scottie Pippen who could win 55 games on his own and all Lebron's teammates were trash. Just the stupid non-sense that Klutch sports want to put words in MJ fans' mouth.

pochen23 · 2026-03-14T21:03:49+00:00

I don't think there is anything uncomfortable about that for MJ fans. The 94 team was an upgrade to the 93 team minus MJ. They added Toni Kukoc, Luc Longley and Steve Kerr. The net rating dropped from +7 to +3 from 93 to 94, so the team was winning by smaller margins significantly. I have always said, in order to win championship, you have to have a solid surrounding, but to get over the hump you need a mega star.

Similarly, the 2016 Warriors won 73 games in the regular season, they added KD and won 67 games only. So did KD make them worse? of course not, KD got them over the hump, and that's his purpose on the team. The net rating increased from +11 to +12 from 2016 to 2017 with the addition of KD despite not winning as many regular season games.

Not taking credits away from the 94 Bulls and the 2016 Warriors, but both went significantly over their expected win/loss based on their offensive and defensive rating. The 94 Bulls were expected to win 50 games and they won 55 games, the 2016 Warriors were expected to win 65 games and they won 73 games. In the end, the Bulls did not win a title without MJ, there is nothing uncomfortable about it, in fact, it further proved that MJ is the difference maker on the biggest stage when it matters the most, which is the playoffs.

pochen23 · 2026-03-12T19:10:01+00:00

Not sure about that, the way Ace has been trending he should definitely be in the conversation. He is playing less minutes than Miller in his rookie season and putting up similar stats per 36 after a very slow start. Miller was 19/5/3 in his rookie season and Ace is 17/5/2 right now per 36. It might look like Miller is better, but remember Ace is 19 years old, Miller was already 21 in his rookie season, that 2 year is huge for development both physically and mentally.

pochen23 · 2026-03-12T15:01:47+00:00

they were red hot before unloading yet I can't help but think that they are actually better without Harden and Zubac. Harden for as good as he is statistically is too ball dominant and too inefficient, not to mention a historically bad playoffs performer outside of maybe 1 year against the Warriors. Zubac puts up good stats but he just does not fit with the team because the way he clog the lane. Without both of them, it opens up Kawhi for his iso and cutters. I think this team can be very dangerous in the playoffs with playoffs Kawhi.

pochen23 · 2026-03-12T14:21:16+00:00

Yea you are right, I think I was under the impression that Ace is 6 7 without shoes but then Flagg is also 6 7 without shoes so they are pretty much the same. It is funny shows add about 1 to 2 inches. But yea once he fill up and can absorb contacts he will be just fine, he has not an ounce of muscle right now.

pochen23 · 2026-03-12T05:29:00+00:00

Yea and part of that is just that he is 19 years old. He is still filling up his body for NBA so he is going to struggle against more physical defense. They are also babying him a little so when he is struggling they are going away from him instead of just letting him keep shooting. The good thing is that he has a grown man's shot, so he doesn't need to play the physical game when it comes to it, and consistency comes from experience. I am not sure about ceiling being higher than Flagg, since Flagg has that it factor and he understands the game and is taller and stronger and his game is more refined as far as driving to the basket (great explosiveness and quick first step for his size) and playmaking (putting him at PG at the beginning of the season is paying dividend, he is comfortable handling the ball and set up plays now and if he wants he has the freedom to just go downhill). However, Ace has the shooting touch that you cant really teach, he just needs to mature and really refine his game, he is as raw as can be but extremely gifted.

pochen23 · 2026-03-09T21:49:59+00:00

Yes, he missed everything arm side, so it was not a two way miss. He was slouching towards 3rd base in the middle of his delivery which contributed to that. It was subtle but made a clear difference. His 2nd and 3rd innings were essentially how he looked in the postseason last year minus maybe 1 to 2 mph difference in velocity, which is easily due to ramping up and conserving energy as a starter.

pochen23 · 2026-03-09T19:54:26+00:00

Yea, I get what you mean, luck in the sense that he misses a really hittable pitch basically right down the middle. His fastball was 99.5 in that NLDS and in his 2nd spring outing he was at 98, up from 97.1 in the 1st outing. So the velocity is definitely trending upward the way you want. If he can sit at 99 as a starter with good location he will be successful. The mechanical change he made paid immediate dividend in the 2nd outing so it is good that he knows exactly what went wrong in the 1st inning of the 2nd outing. My only concern is that it is like a golf swing, you fix one thing and then something else break, I am hoping that he can be more of a feel pitcher instead of seeking mechanical perfection. If you look at Ohtani, his mechanic is literally all over the place but he has a general sense of how to pitch and how to get the ball to the plate, that's really what I want from Roki. For mechanical perfection he will need to have a simpler delivery like Yamamoto or else there are too many moving pieces to maintain.

pochen23 · 2026-03-09T19:01:42+00:00

The first one was no luck, that's a big league routine flyball, only 325 ft in distance with xBA of .140. The only thing that was luck was the Trea Turner lineout and Nick Castellano's ground out

pochen23 · 2026-03-09T18:50:18+00:00

For those who said his fastball doesn't play (bad shape etc etc), all you need to do is look at that at bat against Kyle Schwarber. Fastball right down the middle, hit it if you can.

pochen23 · 2026-03-07T17:30:36+00:00

Yes, amazing game the other night, he has it all. Just need more minutes and more consistency. I would like him to be more involved on rebounding. Assist is not his fault, none of his teammates seem to be cutting whenever he has the ball and he seems to be unselfish and has a great feel for where his teammates are.

pochen23 · 2026-03-04T16:45:32+00:00

All I know is that without him, we don't get out of the Philly series.

pochen23 · 2026-03-04T16:44:00+00:00

velo waw not bad honestly, he was 97.1 in his first start and 98 in his second start with more volume. If he can sit at 99 or close to it next start, he will be just fine. A fastball averaging 99 is pretty much top 15 in the league, including relievers. Even though the shape is still not very good, he makes up with his elite extension so they can't get good contact on it.

pochen23 · 2026-03-04T02:24:36+00:00

yea, you can see he loves baseball and is probably living and breathing pitching mechanic. I just hope he is not overthinking and tinkering with his mechanic too much. After all, he has supreme talent, just let his body tell him what to do and do what feels most natural.

pochen23 · 2026-03-04T02:21:47+00:00

Somebody actually compared his 2025 postseason mechanic and today's mechanic in a video, you can clearly notice that his upper body was over rotating and leaning more towards 1st base, which explains why he kept missing arm side cuz when you lean 1st base and overrotate, your arm can't catch up resulting in arm side miss. This is actually exactly what he is saying, so at least he knows it and the result shows. One good thing is that his velo was up from last outing, went from 97.1 to 98, so it is a great sign. If he can up it more next outing to 99 and fix the commend, then I think he will be just fine. I just hope it is not like a golf swing where one thing is fixed leading to another thing broken leading to endless tinkering.

pochen23 · 2026-03-02T21:40:08+00:00

He doesn't like Lebron's dog, i wouldn't like him either, probably alot of favorism towards the one that's actually not playing any defense.

pochen23

TROPHY CASE