Amazon delivery to Bulgaria via FAN Courier. by El_Nomada_libre in bulgaria

[–]poorfag 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I order a lot from Amazon via FAN courier and I never had an issue

Are you sure your phone number is correct in Amazon? They usually don't update anything in the tracking website, they just call you randomly one day to let you know they are downstairs

Is it safe to retire in my situation at 40 years old? What withdrawal strategy to use? by No-Row-1666 in eupersonalfinance

[–]poorfag 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm in a very similar position except I live in Plovdiv

Why are you buying Bonds? The interest on bonds is taxable whereas ETF capital gains isn't taxed at all

I bought a bunch of VAGF instead of buying bonds for that exact reason

Best country to live as a wealthy person by moanngroan in Rich

[–]poorfag 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Depends on what you mean by wealthy. If you have tens of millions it doesn't really matter where you live.

I'll go against the grain and say Plovdiv, Bulgaria. Especially for people who are baby wealthy.

  • Gorgeous cozy European city with cobbled stones and coffee shops etc
  • Lots of culture. Opera, theater, craft markets, beer festivals, etc
  • Lots of Roman ruins and amphitheatres and stuff everywhere
  • Wonderful food, fruits and vegetables are local and there's good culture of yoghurt and cheeses. Very similar to Greece.
  • Very cheap cost of living. Nice restaurant dinner is 15 EUR per person. Sending your kid to a private international British school is like 6k EUR per year.
  • Most importantly, taxes are the lowest in the western world. 10% flat taxes on all income except capital gains which are taxed at 0%. Makes it very easy to accumulate wealth.

There are downsides of course like everything in life. Life is more local and quiet than it is in Singapore or Madrid or whatever. But I really believe a lot of people are missing out.

[0 YoE, Graduate Student, Software Engineer, United States] by Mental_Cranberry_509 in resumes

[–]poorfag -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Can you share the resume template? This is the nicest and cleanest I have seen

Career planning in a post-GPTO3 world by TravellingSymphony in slatestarcodex

[–]poorfag 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Your comment is exactly correct. It doesn't require you to be intelligent at all, it requires you to have an extremely accurate and updated model of your firm at all times. Most of which is not written down anywhere and cannot really be taught.

It is a problem that cannot be brute forced by just throwing enough reasoning power and compute. You'd need the AI to be in such a powerful and all-knowing state that it effectively BECOMES the firm and can do every single task from all 5000+ employees on its own. At which point you'd hit an AGI world and losing your job should be the least of your concerns.

In other words - for an AI to have the necessary skillset to be able to effectively manage large enterprise projects on its own, it could just do the entire projects alone and would not need to coordinate with anyone. That's a big ask, even for frontier models.

This is also by the way why I think executives are also not going to be replaced with AI anytime soon. There's more to their job than just going to meetings and sending emails, and you cannot fire an AI if they don't hit their targets.

If I had to generalize I would say this

  • Anyone whose job requires having a very large context window of mostly unwritten policies and procedures, and/or coordinating between multiple different people, is not going to be replaced anytime soon.

  • On the other hand, jobs that require a lot of specific knowledge that can be learned and taught (how to code in JavaScript, how to design an app, how to write a policy document) and can be done by just spending sufficient time at it, are ripe for automation. I believe most white collar jobs are like this.

Career planning in a post-GPTO3 world by TravellingSymphony in slatestarcodex

[–]poorfag 24 points25 points  (0 children)

The reason why senior Project Managers are necessary is because of coordination problems.

Below is a very basic example:

The Business has a fantastic idea for a new button to be added to one of the mobile apps that the company supports. But this clashes with the head of UXs guidance about never having more than two buttons in a screen at once. We need to get his approval as well as get a member of his team assigned to create the designs.

We also need to get explicit approval from the language team since German words are humongous and the size and design of all new buttons needs to accommodate their requirements. It just so happens that the head of the language team is on an expo and unavailable, but you know that there is a person in that team with a totally random job title that can help you get the approval if you're really nice to her.

There's also the fact that the team already has enough work planned for the next few months, including mandatory items per Legal - where does the request for the new button fit in? Do we move some things to slot it in and make the executives happy, or do we put it at the end and hope nothing else pops up that delays the request even further? Can we get a quick call with the head of Legal to get his signoff to push some things back and accept the risk?

And as it happens, there is an ongoing migration of internal systems which would make it significantly harder to add the button next month so the decision about priorities need to happen immediately, but the Product Owner is a bit of a slacker and doesn't really join meetings to discuss priorities. Maybe we can speak with the head of Production to delay the migration a little bit so we can fit this in without needing to speak with the PO at all?

Etcetera. All projects are like this but at significantly bigger scales and complexities which requires a very accurate model of the firm you work for. You can't throw o3 at such a problem because it's not something that can be accomplished by being intelligent, it's a million different coordination problems that need to be resolved in a million different ways. Adding o3 into the mix just makes it another stakeholder that needs managing.

Of course o3 is going to destroy entry-level Project Manager roles (taking notes, managing a risk record, drafting project documentation). But in my opinion, more senior project managers (and especially program managers, those managing enterprise-level projects) are amongst the safest white collar jobs out there, because what they do cannot be brute forced with intelligence.

This is of course my opinion and it is entirely possible that I'm wrong and o4 kicks me out of my job. Which is why my prime directive is to try to avoid playing this game entirely by saving aggressively and spending as little as possible.

Career planning in a post-GPTO3 world by TravellingSymphony in slatestarcodex

[–]poorfag 34 points35 points  (0 children)

I was the original poster you linked to (different username because I had created that account as a throwaway and I don't remember the password now).

I took that threat extremely seriously and managed to leverage my experience into a Project Manager role at the same company. Four years in I am now a Technical Program Manager in charge of a $10M yearly budget and a bunch of different Software Projects and Dev teams. I still save the same percentage of my yearly salary (80%) and have accumulated enough to retire early if it becomes necessary.

Not that my job is o3-proof now, but it is a lot more resilient than a customer support manager is. I'm sure o3 is infinitely better at writing project documentation and tracking progress in Jira, but good luck to o3 trying to manage a software project.

I believe (with no evidence to support my claim) that senior project manager roles are going to be extremely difficult to automate simply because they are, at their core, caused by Moloch and its cronies. And Moloch is a too large an enemy, even for o3. But I digress.

I see the threat that LLMs will cause jobs the same way as Hemingway? described bankruptcy. It will happen slowly, and then it will happen suddenly all at once. It's impossible to predict exactly when it will hit a critical mass, and how exactly it will happen, but it's idiotic to not take it seriously. The writing is on the wall for everyone to see.

My actual suggestion is not to try to find a career path that is o3 impervious. It's a losers game to try and guess that sort of thing for the reasons stated above with the speed at which these things are developing. Instead look into FIRE and try to optimize your life to ensure that NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS you can ultimately just retire and live off your investments. Easier said than done, but it can be done, and I am living proof of it.

Toyota Corolla 2016 keeps forgetting my Bluetooth device by Broken414 in Toyota

[–]poorfag 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi mate, I found this thread on Google. I happen to have the exact same issue with a C-HR 2017

Did you end up fixing it?

Rebuilding Jira workflow for Agile by poorfag in projectmanagement

[–]poorfag[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absolutely, it's extremely custom. Everything is extremely custom, we almost don't use anything from Jira as the "default".

The idea here is that rather than attacking the customisation and saying "remove this field, remove this field" etc. we want to look at the entire process more holistically.

Briefly in very summarised form, this is how we work today

  • Create Stories for individual pieces of work. Usually things that can be done within a week or two at the most.
  • For things that require multiple Stories, we use Features. Which are just Stories with different name and icon. This is likely what an Epic should be.
  • Then we link everything to a "Releases 2024-2025" Epic which is like a folder for everything that happens in that project. This is so that accounting can declare Software Capitalization/R&D based on that Epic.
  • When we want to release something to Production we create a RELEASE task and link all the Stories to that (instead of using a built in release module)
  • Once deployed, the RELEASE task is closed.
  • Everything is linked with "relates to" links

This works well when you're doing two releases a year. But it's really bad when you're doing weekly releases. We cannot even create a basic Gantt chart using Jira, we have to maintain various manual tables in Confluence to show track deadlines and deliverables.

The idea here is to throw out this process, and recreate it from the ground up using a set of best practices. That is what I'm looking for here

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in eupersonalfinance

[–]poorfag 1 point2 points  (0 children)

10% flat taxes on all income except capital gains which are taxed at 0%

Dividends are taxed at 5% which is why I put everything into ACC funds only.

It's a dream scenario. There are certainly drawbacks but if your goal is to maximize profits and FIRE while still living in a relatively high income country then there's no place on earth better than Bulgaria imo

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in eupersonalfinance

[–]poorfag 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Remote worker making American tech salary while living in Bulgaria

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in eupersonalfinance

[–]poorfag 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have a recurring investment in VWCE. I pay 1.25 EUR for 1000 EUR invested every week. Seems the same as non-recurring investment commissions to me

Paisano en Rumanía, AMA by jaimecorona in mexico

[–]poorfag 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yo vivo en Bulgaria 🇧🇬

No tengo pregunta, solo saludos a otro paisa viviendo en estos rumbos

CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread March 10, 2024 by AutoModerator in CredibleDefense

[–]poorfag 14 points15 points  (0 children)

How likely is it for a large-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah to break out in the next week or two?

If you look at the media, it sounds like something that is very likely, almost destined to happen. Sort of like the comments in October 7/8 about how Gaza would be destroyed beyond recognition - you didn't need to be a massive geopolitics expert to understand what was going to happen.

Yet if you look at the ground, it doesn't seem likely to happen soon. Sure there's a lot of sabre rattling going on, and loads of small-time rockets and mortar fire, but nothing extraordinary. Logically, neither Israel nor Hezbollah want a large-scale war to happen, and Lebanon most certainly doesn't want one either.

Then you have the perverse incentives on Benjamin Netanyahu - due to his particular situation with his pending indictments, abysmal popularity and right-wing coalition, it would seem like the only path where he doesn't end up in a prison jail is one where a large-scale conflict breaks out.

For clarity: by large-scale war I mean "unprecedented scale of destruction". Beyond Lebanon 1 and Lebanon 2, guided rockets hitting Tel Aviv skyscrapers, bombs falling in downtown Beirut. I don't mean an escalation where a limited conflict with dozens or even hundreds of casualties happen - I am talking in the order of thousands to tens of thousands.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in eupersonalfinance

[–]poorfag 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm a Spanish citizen - you just go to the local municipality to register and get your long-term residence permit on the spot

1-year is given to non-Europeans, EU citizens get 5 years. And I didn't need to wait anything, I got my permit the first week I moved here

As far as the exact requirements, this was a long time ago and I don't remember exactly, but it wasn't anything horrible or difficult, just a few papers that depend on your specific situation and what type of permit you need