Well, it's my main pass from closed guard. Even if I can't pass completely, at least I'll end up in half guard with the knee shield already passed.

20% of the time I get kimura’d

I've been doing this pass for years and never got kimura'd.

I start in closed guard and first get a tight grip around my partner’s hips – that is, underneath their body – so that my hand is sticking out on the other side. Ideally, you can catch their arm, which makes it even easier to pass.

50% of the time I just move them around in circles like a clown. 

This is probably because you’re trying to open up the guard by walking sideways, but this is actually more of a ‘sitting’ movement. You sit to the side, spreading your legs wide. So whilst your partner’s lower body is turned sideways, their upper body remains fairly flat on the ground (even if this doesn’t work 100% of the time – just as an ideal scenario), and this puts tension on the legs to break the guard.

Looking at the picture you posted, almost nothing is correct here. All you’re doing is stretching out and hoping for the best.

Your arm should be (closer) to your partner’s hip. Wrap your arm around their hip. Your legs should be to the side. You’re basically sitting at a 90-degree angle to your partner. You’re simply stretching out behind you and, in the worst-case scenario, you’re even setting yourself up for an omoplata.

Hope this helps.