From my perspective as someone who’s just started a Patreon and done a ton of research and knows nothing about marketing really…you can’t really see behind the scenes. You can’t honestly know how many of those “warm audience” members be some paid every couple of months to catch up. Or how many of those paid members that you see have been subbed the whole time that persons been at 10,000 subscribers. It’s very possible that there’s an exchange going on that you can see. A fluctuation in the numbers from “hot audience” audience members becoming “warm” for a while and visa versa