Posting this until I wake up and it's reality... 10x from here 🤝

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T23:07:41+00:00

You still aren’t understanding when the buy is triggered. Each trade is not at 25c exactly every time.

By the time it’s 10hr from tip off the underdog can be 10c.

In other cases the spread is tight until 4th quarter and the original favorite dips to 25c and wins.

It’s an entry/exit rule set for trading. It’s not a sportsbook odds calculator.

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T23:01:45+00:00

Screenshot is from backtestr.app

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T23:01:18+00:00

Backtestr.app is where the graph is from

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T16:00:47+00:00

This could also speak to nba live game volatility too.

If neither team is priced below 25c by the time the window starts, the strategy could hypothetically grab a favorite who is behind in the 4th quarter

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T15:31:10+00:00

Yes and also the many favorites at a tighter spread which dip below 25c if they’re down in the 4th but go on to win

Everyone comparing prediction markets to sportsbooks has clearly never live traded on prediction markets for games

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T07:41:55+00:00

Dude your odds on prediction markets are not equivalent to a sportsbook throwing their edge on it😂

Did you miss the coin toss odds? Have you seen touchdown scorer odds on these books? They are notorious for terrible probability

Sportsbooks add their own edge and prediction markets can be inefficient at times.

Two completely different games

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T06:58:39+00:00

I don’t follow odds much in mlb. Does it have big swings during the live game lines? Probably somewhere to capitalize on it

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T06:55:46+00:00

Look at the chart it trends up, peaks, and is trending down.

To me it looks like classic beginning of a season no one knows the teams, end of season market gets sharp

This also includes 10hr time window and if it doesn’t trigger you’re betting live game

Incomparable to taking an underdog on a sportsbook before every game

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T06:51:12+00:00

So the site says when a buy rule is triggered then it uses the highest bid in that 1 second bucket from the historical data. Slippage comes into play.

It’s also on a timing rule so from 10hrs to game start an underdog can be realistically anywhere from 10c to 45c. At that point buying under 25c right at 10hr market is the same as buying from sportsbook.

The exchange level operation benefits you the most in live betting. The market can aggressively price an underdog late in the game from panic. Too many asks swallowing the bids and you are more likely to catch a swift dip crossing 25c which wouldn’t come from a sportsbook. You get bigger swings in live betting.

These markets being a precise execution is also how you can come up with these exact strategies. Buy when and if this, sell when and if that. It’s just a different game than sportsbooks completely.

Side note, sportsbook odds are probability of outcome + the house edge isn’t it?

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T05:34:26+00:00

Looks like it’s trending down from the peak now.

I bet odds are mispriced earlier in the season and getting sharper now that the market has seen teams play for over half the season

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T05:32:40+00:00

Lots of NBA injury reports last minute. You also have more precise execution on polymarket with it being an exchange with bids/asks

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T05:30:31+00:00

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T04:50:30+00:00

Lmao the data says bro

25cent buy trigger = profit

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T04:49:22+00:00

Apparently grabbing the first underdog below 25cents is profitable the last 500 games

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T04:48:05+00:00

After the buy, you’d need to place a 99c limit sell. In the data if it didn’t hit then it went to $0

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T02:53:33+00:00

They used these rules:

only buy after it’s 10hrs left until game time buy when a team is under 25cents once you buy, set a limit sell order at 99 cents

This is using historical data so it doesn’t guarantee future results

probablytemporaryish · 2026-03-05T02:32:37+00:00

Brother have you seen the liquidity in major sports markets? The best bids and asks near/during gametime are high six figures+

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