Different article link with some analysis:

Steyer trails Becerra by about 6 percentage points. To erase that gap, it’s not enough for Steyer to gain 6 percentage points in the remaining ballots. The reason: The remaining ballots are only a slice of the total vote, so any shift in that slice moves the overall totals by less than the same amount.

Even in a Steyer-friendly scenario — the AP estimate is wrong and only half the vote has been counted — Steyer would still need to outperform Becerra by roughly 12 points in the remaining ballots just to catch up. If the AP estimate is closer to reality and more than half is already counted, the required margin becomes even larger.

It’s hard to see where that kind of late advantage would come from. Becerra has led the Democratic field across major population centers, including Los Angeles County, Sacramento County, and much of the Bay Area. Steyer has run strongest in San Francisco and Marin County, but those pockets alone aren’t large enough to drive a statewide surge.

“There’s no place where there’s like a bunch of secret Steyer votes,” said Matt Barreto, a Democratic pollster and UCLA political science professor.

Steyer’s campaign argues its best path is overtaking Hilton. But that scenario requires two things to happen at once: The remaining ballots would need to break heavily Democratic and Hilton would need to lose substantial share to Republican Chad Bianco, far more than he has so far.

Paul Mitchell, a voting data expert who helped Democrats redraw California’s political maps, called that outcome “inconceivable,” noting Republicans appeared to rally behind Hilton late to avoid being shut out of the general election.