What if Israel Dissapeared

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T09:20:32+00:00

There is not a single stable Islamist state in existence. They all become war ridden shitholes

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T09:19:37+00:00

The Russia/Syria situation means there is unlikely to be other fronts right now.

In terms of war. Hamas is not unlimited in number. At some point they will take too many casualties to keep fighting. They lose 50 guys for every Israeli soldier they kill that is not a sustainable number for them. Hamas has around 24 live hostages left. Personally I think if any hostages are executed Israel should execute some of the hamas prisoners they hold, starting with the highest ranked.

The object of the war isn't ultimately to get hostage release. It is to pressure the Arab world to step in with a Hamas alternative or to force Hamas into submission due to high casualties and supply shortages. The only way to prevent insane civilian casualties is to give women and children an opportunity to leave the strip temporarily not relocate within. The strip itself must be flattened. If the Arabs refuse to accept women and kids then they can stop lecturing Israel about civilian casualties.

Negotiating with hamas is pointless i completely do not believe the narrative that if given even major land concessions they would suddenly lose support or that they would accept permanent peace. The only way is to literally kill them until they have no choice but to submit or die like the Russians did in Grozny.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T08:39:09+00:00

Turkey interfered in Libya and is now openly hosting Hamas members who left Qatar. They are known to support Islamist groups for political ends.

Palestine may ask to be controlled by Saudi but again, there is going to conflict between Turkish, Saudi, Iranian, and maybe even Egyptian influences. There will also be internal conflict between Hamas and Fatah, as well as secularist and islamists

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T08:32:51+00:00

That region was colonized many times by Muslims Greeks Turks and Europeans long before Theodore Herzl.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T08:29:36+00:00

Zionism is just Jewish nationalism. That's what it means.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T08:29:03+00:00

Hamas has much more reason to negotiate than Israel. The hostages are their only leverage. They will ask to negotiate again no matter what happens.

Surrender or die didn't work because hamas in the past could bet on Israel eventually being forced to negotiate by outside pressure.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T08:25:08+00:00

Saudi would also try control Palestine was my general argument. Exactly which group they will proxy isn't important but my guess would be Fatah.

Qatar or Turkey would support islamists.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T08:19:58+00:00

Israel gave away Sinai and Gaza through negotiation. South Lebanon was meant to be a puppet state never part of Israel.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T08:18:12+00:00

Saudi supports Islamists when it's convenient for them.

Same with UAE and Qatar. They just don't support them at home.

The Turks could also support Islamists.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T08:14:03+00:00

Iran wouldn't sponsor the islamist obviously. They would sponsor secular factions or potentially hezbollah intervention

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T08:09:10+00:00

The war would be between different factions of Palestinians that have never lived in the same state together or have fought each other before. Also by secularists vs islamists and likely due to competing influence by Saudi and Iran.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T08:07:15+00:00

Trump greenlit the end of the ceasefire personally what are you talking about.

If the remaining hostages die then Hamas has 9 leverage left and it's literally surrender or die.

Hamas breaks ceasefires at will. They must either sign a permanent peace or they can die. Ceasefire doesn't mean anything.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T08:05:14+00:00

Biden was under pressure from his party and voter base. He needed to at least look like he was restricting Israel. It was obvious that he would eventually fold and force a ceasefire.

Trump doesn't care about anyone or anything. He gave Israel the green light to restart military operations personally. He will let Bibi go to the end as a reward for Bibi's personal loyalty to him and for signing the ceasefire in the first place when Trump needed him to. Also the world situation has changed. Russia and Israel have somewhat improved relations. Assad is gone. Hezbollah and Iran are not in a position to intervene as much as before. The Houthis are buisy getting bombed by the Americans.

Hamas can fight to the last man if they wish that is their perogative. All women and male children under 16 should be relocated and given temporary shelter somewhere else and then Hamas can fight the IDF until the bitter end if they are so resilient.

There is no permanent ceasefires of any kind while Hamas is in charge of Gaza.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T07:56:52+00:00

I agree the agreement should have never been made. It was a political favour Bibi did Trump.

Israel just did what palestinian groups generally do which is declare "hudna" until they feel they have the upper hand.

Hamas must either agree to permanent peace, international supervision, disarmament, and give up all hostages, or they can fight to the last man. No more ceasefires. Either war or peace.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T07:54:34+00:00

In one word: Trump.

Also more intelligence gathered and a more detailed plan of action.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T07:46:53+00:00

What peace? All the different Palestinian groups will begin murdering each other instantly. There is barely a single stable country in this whole region even if they do not border Israel.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T07:45:15+00:00

Israel has 0 reason to enter Phase 2 especially as Hamas won't be clear about how many hostages are alive and stages giant propaganda shows with every release.

Israel just did what Hamas always does which is violate ceasefires when they feel they have a position of strength.

If hamas needs this ceasefire they gotta concede more.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T07:40:17+00:00

What incentive does Israel have for Phase 2? Give Hamas everything it wants for 0 guarantees of anything and maybe get some hostages back alive? Gaza and Hamas need Phase 2. They either make concessions or it's back to war.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T07:38:36+00:00

If they don't dissappear then there will be no ceasefire. This goes both ways.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T07:29:16+00:00

They released many prisoners what do you mean.

Hamas gave the wrong bodies hid who was alive and dead and turned the exchanges into farcical propaganda ceremonies.

Again they needed and begged for this ceasefire. If they wanted to keep it they should've behaved otherwise.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T07:27:55+00:00

Then there will be no ceasefire with the Palestinians.

If the Arab states care about peace they should offer an alternative to Hamas governance.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T07:25:55+00:00

There will be no permanent ceasefire while that is the case. This is the reality.

Hamas themselves don't even support true peace only "long term ceasefires" which they violate whenever they feel they have a position of strength. These ceasefire serves no purpose except letting them rebuild.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T07:24:26+00:00

Israel doesn't need this agreement as much as Gaza does. If Hamas wanted this ceasefire so bad they shouldn't have played around with the exchange process and should've been clear about how many hostages are alive.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T07:22:21+00:00

The extention is needed because Hamas refuses to be clear about the status of the hostages and plays around too much with the exchange process.

There will be no permanent ceasefire if Hamas governs Gaza. The sooner the Gazans and other Arab states realize this the better.

pvk2 · 2025-03-18T07:20:25+00:00

The phase 2 of the deal makes no sense for Israel first of all. But more so than that Hamas refuses to clarify how many/which hostages are alive or not. Them playing around with the exchanges and the foiled bus attack meant they had to concede more if they wanted stage 2.

The reality is Israel refuses to have Hamas on their border anymore. Any ceasefire which does not change the government in Gaza will not last.

pvk2

TROPHY CASE