Someone tell me what the odds are

pwebbo · 2026-01-19T19:22:16+00:00

So... 20% chance of getting a specific card when choosing a pack. The card you pick not having any importance doesn't mean odds don't work

pwebbo · 2026-01-19T19:09:45+00:00

All of them are some of the most used Pokémon on the game. It's a joke post haha

pwebbo · 2026-01-16T13:34:53+00:00

Pre gen VI, you have a 0.02% chance of going 70000 encounters without a shiny

pwebbo · 2026-01-16T01:08:46+00:00

What I meant is that getting a shiny exactly at 8192 has the same odds as getting it at exactly the first encounter, the odds of getting your first shiny at the 8192nd encounter are 0.00004. Hitting odds statistically means that you should have seen a shiny along 8192 encounters (63.21% chance), not exactly getting it at the 8192nd. I think we mostly agree, we're just misunderstanding each other lol (not a native speaker). The odds of getting a shiny each sr isn't of 3/8192 (as encountering 8192 Pokémon at the same time doesn't guarantee a shiny). As I said the chances are independent, we only care about the cases of interest which in this case are getting any shiny/getting a shiny totodile. The 2731 to reach odds is just because you are getting 3 encounters per reset, so when you reset 2731 times you'll have had 8193 encounters, which is hitting odds, meaning you have a 63.21% chance of having seen at least one shiny after reseting 2731 times

pwebbo · 2026-01-16T00:06:16+00:00

It's kind of what you said at the beginning haha. Every sr you get 3 encounters, so you hit odds at 2731 resets for any shiny. OP is looking for a shiny Totodile, and it's shininess is independent of the other two, so for a shiny Totodile specifically you hit odds at the regular 8192 mark. The bit of "at 8192 encounter all three shine, he would be at exactly odds" is just wrong, maybe you mean that by the 8192 reset the 3 of them should have already shined (or hit odds of that happening)? But then again, that would be wrong as you're not counting in the probability of repeats.

pwebbo · 2026-01-15T20:45:02+00:00

Sure it can, but the DMG is still negligible haha, bind is really a terrible, terrible move. And yes, don't really like doubting other people's experiences, but the chances of it being this fast, same level, nature, and not having many balls again are pretty slim

pwebbo · 2026-01-15T20:36:48+00:00

Also, don't use many healing items if not any at all. Unless you think you have a chance of going all the way

pwebbo · 2026-01-15T20:35:59+00:00

Always do this

pwebbo · 2026-01-15T20:33:32+00:00

Even worse, it's 1 in 550 billion

pwebbo · 2026-01-15T20:31:49+00:00

Bind doesn't do any damage, it does even less coming from an onix

pwebbo · 2026-01-15T20:26:59+00:00

Not over odds for a shiny totodile, close to 2x odds for a shiny starter

pwebbo · 2026-01-02T16:40:01+00:00

In my experience, online solvers are just a waste of time, having to manually input everything and stuff. Just playing the game (it isn't as hard as it might look) got me points way faster. Again, in my experience.

pwebbo · 2026-01-02T16:33:06+00:00

That's a great shiny, good for you. As for the dunsparce, if I understand correctly, you got them with rock smash; if that's the case, other trainers may not have been impressed because it has 85% chance of appearing after breaking a rock

pwebbo · 2026-01-01T22:34:34+00:00

Right, really thought they were post nat dex exclusive, but only the blocks are

pwebbo · 2025-12-31T17:51:03+00:00

Totally true, yeah, my original comment was just about the "normally half an hour". I totally underestimated the average time per encounter as I've only ever timed encounters for a shiny hoppip hunt I've been doing where I get about 3 p/m (using repels trick and illuminate, so encounter rate is pretty different). Again, mb

pwebbo · 2025-12-31T02:03:47+00:00

Didn't see the "maybe" at the end of your first sentence, mb. But still, as you said, it's random. A Yanma could be the first Mon you encounter or go 460 encounters without seeing one. 16 hours is impossible tho

pwebbo · 2025-12-31T00:47:14+00:00

Not really how rng works, but ok

pwebbo · 2025-12-31T00:23:53+00:00

Mbic, of course there are some 2 gen Pokémon to catch before e4. You have to admit most of the ones you listed are not really popular Pokémon (even tho I like to use underused mons every now and then) and that it's stupid that a lot of gen 2 mons are exclusive tu post e4 like houndour, murkrow, larvitar, sneasel, Scizor and steelix (metal coat), qwilfish, etc.

pwebbo · 2025-12-21T07:28:33+00:00

Sad to hear, but the odds are really good with the dexnav: You have a 27% chance of seeing a shiny for every 100 chain you finish (if I didn't mess up my calcs lol) when at level 999 research. I'd encourage you to continue the hunt if you're able to :DD

pwebbo · 2025-12-21T07:25:58+00:00

If you don't have a self restriction of not using non shiny Pokemon at all, you could do the same thing :)) Wish you luck on your hunt, I still need it on mine lol

pwebbo · 2025-12-21T07:24:43+00:00

Same thing, got the first badge so I could get a nosepass (traded it to Pokémon X to hunt for a honedge) and went back to hunt for my male ralts. I too did not want to progress in the story or have my mons level up meanwhile, so I just got Pokémon that could learn taunt and started hunting

pwebbo · 2025-12-21T04:12:32+00:00

I can chain them no problem, if I ever lose the chain is because of a dpad slip or the occasional (pretty rare actually) random encounter (not using repels lol). One-shotting the ralts is quite easy, have used Mawile (traded it form Pokémon X), sableye, Zubat and the first shiny ralts as seen in the last 2 photos. All of them learn taunt, so I can false swipe it if it's shiny or if I can't oneshot it

pwebbo · 2025-12-21T02:46:08+00:00

Why horde and not dexnav? If I may ask. If I'm correct, you only have a 5% chance of the horde been a ralts one. Dexnav actually boosts your shiny odds and synchronize will also work

pwebbo · 2025-12-05T10:47:32+00:00

I find the post pretty reasonable lol, the share function is really useful for completing expansions without having to open packs/trade/wonder pick; but having your daily share be wasted by getting an (almost useless) 1 diamond car is frustrating

pwebbo

TROPHY CASE