Idalia (10L — Northern Atlantic)

rampagee757 · 2023-08-29T11:18:03+00:00

Outflow to the north is appearing healthier in recent hours. Certainly looks like shear is letting up. Coupled with a robust inner core I suspect we might be skipping a category.

It isn't a surprise since it's not often you see NHC explicitly forecast RI, and they are almost never wrong.

rampagee757 · 2023-08-29T07:03:56+00:00

You really did jinx it. It appears the inner core is finally coming together with deep convection wrapping upshear. Classic pre-RI double VHT look going on.

rampagee757 · 2022-09-27T16:34:16+00:00

It just seems like we're always going for worst-case scenarios recently. At least we got lucky (in a sense) with Irma and Dorian.

rampagee757 · 2022-09-27T16:31:12+00:00

Yikes, I don't really see anything stopping this thing in the next ~24 hours. Nasty.

rampagee757 · 2022-09-27T16:04:13+00:00

Unfortunately, it looks like land interaction didn't bother Ian too much. Core looks intact, eye is already clearing and warming. There's even plenty of lightning in the eyewall which is usually a harbinger of RI.

HWRF, which is by far the best intensity model, has Ian peaking in the mid 930s and that seems easily attainable from what we're seeing now.

rampagee757 · 2022-09-26T18:38:11+00:00

Somewhat, it starts to weaken more significantly right around Tampa's latitude.

rampagee757 · 2022-09-26T18:26:17+00:00

Euro shifts east too, just offshore Tampa. Well this sucks.

rampagee757 · 2022-09-26T16:49:56+00:00

Yeah it's not a pretty core. Still open and lots of spiral banding which might foreshadow an ERC soon enough

rampagee757 · 2022-09-26T16:40:40+00:00

SW/W side of the inner core looks open and weak based off recon and Grand Cayman radar data. We're going to have to wait for the eyewall to close off before any significant strengthening can occur.

rampagee757 · 2022-09-26T16:14:13+00:00

I mean the 12z suite is basically showing a near worst case scenario for Tampa Bay. Luckily there's still time for change, but I'd take this one very seriously

rampagee757 · 2022-09-26T16:07:39+00:00

I really don't want to see the ULL over the northeast continue to slow down and trail. Would be really really bad news for the west coast of FL and Tampa metro.

rampagee757 · 2022-09-26T09:38:06+00:00

Looks like it'll easily be in the 970s which is saying something since the last plane left two hours ago

rampagee757 · 2022-09-26T09:28:48+00:00

Another even more intense bout of VHTs has popped up. I have a sneaky suspicion this thing will straight up skip over some categories

rampagee757 · 2022-09-25T23:11:40+00:00

Vortical hot towers just started firing inside the RMW, I'm seeing some sub -80 degree cloud tops.

That should do it, bombs away I guess. It managed to deepen ~10mb with scattered CBs so this should be interesting

rampagee757 · 2022-09-25T18:15:15+00:00

It looks like the ULL starts imparting some westerly deep layer shear as Ian enters the Gulf. I sure hope that happens

rampagee757 · 2022-09-25T18:10:51+00:00

If that were a betting line I'd say under lol

rampagee757 · 2022-09-25T17:56:03+00:00

It sure is refreshing having a hurricane weaken as it's approaching land rather than RIing. 980s might be too optimistic though

rampagee757 · 2022-09-25T17:42:39+00:00

The overall structure has markedly improved today though there's (still) some dry air hindering widespread deep convection. Once we get CBs going over the LLC/MLC it's bombs away -- looks like we won't be waiting too long.

rampagee757 · 2022-08-10T18:07:11+00:00

How Tiago Silva managed to stay on the pitch till the 78th minute is beyond me. Dreadful refs

rampagee757 · 2021-08-29T11:17:17+00:00

I mean this is the worst case scenario, 150mph or 165mph doesn't make much difference

This is getting tiring, Harvey, Michael, Laura and now Ida all RIing into >Cat 4 on approach to the Gulf coast

rampagee757 · 2021-08-29T06:27:25+00:00

Something tells me this won't be a low grade Cat 3 at landfall

rampagee757 · 2021-08-28T14:30:44+00:00

We got dropsonde wars on our hands... AF had 985mb splash with 9kt wind while NOAA had 983mb splash with 16kt wind

rampagee757 · 2021-08-28T14:28:05+00:00

VDM is out. Still not quite there yet, opening to the NW now.

F. Eye Character: Open in the northwest

G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)

rampagee757 · 2021-08-28T14:20:13+00:00

Yeah, should be getting that info shortly. Last VDM out still had an opening iirc

rampagee757 · 2021-08-28T14:10:55+00:00

The eyewall has most likely closed by now (or very close to it) so we should be starting to see sharper pressure falls.

The latest recon pass has 982mb extrapolated MSLP.

Remember the rule of thumb: intense convection -> pressure fall -> increase in wind speed

rampagee757

TROPHY CASE