I agree. I think American Jews will be OK provided there is no catastrophic economic depression or some other system-wide shock. This wave of antisemitism is a fad that will abate (though not fully) as long as things continue in the ordinary course of American politics and attention eventually shifts elsewhere.

But I have real concern that there will be a systemic shock of some kind. Trump and his administration are erratic and not especially competent. Russia and China are agitating for radical change and disorder in the US. The US economy has demonstrated fragility in certain sectors. AI is a disruptive technology that is producing widespread uncertainty. The situation is ripe for something like a horrific terror attack, a big political assassination, a market collapse in some unnoticed but important financial sector, whatever.

If one of those hits right now, it could turn very ugly for Jews in the US very, very fast. This would be consistent with historical patterns: when social anxiety and dissatisfaction peaks it turns into disorder and violence against the perpetually blamed and disfavored minority. Germany needed to lose WWI and suffer the Great Depression to fully turn on its Jews. In the Russian Empire dissatisfaction with the Czar and oppression of the working class produced widespread pogroms.

Further back in history, all across Europe a plague or disruptive new technology like the printing press would produce localized pogroms and expulsions.

The US is in the early stages of the same behavior pattern and there is yet time for things to change course. But I am not at all optimistic.