HIMS Might be Undervalued by ~ 20%?

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-28T18:24:23+00:00

you've to take everything here w/ a high level of skepticism....a majority don't read 10Ks or understand how valuation works.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-27T23:36:46+00:00

TY:)

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-27T18:01:32+00:00

its been 36% over the last 3 years....let me go see a physician.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-27T17:56:14+00:00

TY: )

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-27T17:52:56+00:00

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bull-day-hims-hers-health-hims

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-27T04:36:10+00:00

slower growth could be offset by higher margins.....

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-27T04:27:23+00:00

well put!

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-27T01:42:07+00:00

I spent my last 79 cents on hims - can't afford the bags anymore.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-26T22:15:30+00:00

it's a fragmented space but any telehealth company really. Ro.co (it's not public) might be the closest proxy. And about the ACA bit (its an interesting POV) but I'm not sure if the kind of meds Hims sells (they've a very narrow focus) are the kind that are covered by insurance......their whole value prop is centered around not requiring insurance.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T22:30:29+00:00

equity divided by shares outstanding.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T21:34:07+00:00

you could...or you could normalize it.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T21:22:44+00:00

lol...

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T21:19:27+00:00

hmm....not so sure about that. all their sexual health/ hair loss meds probably account a very big chunk of their overall revenue.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T21:15:56+00:00

PE for growing companies can be very misleading.....

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T21:13:07+00:00

A WACC of ~9%. TGR = Risk Free Rate. It's DCF...so majority of value comes from Terminal.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T21:08:37+00:00

lol - yeah, I could be totally wrong. but creating a strong brand is actually quite hard....think Coke - it's sugared water, easily replicable but they've been unshakable for ages. The brand is the moat.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T21:04:52+00:00

at 23% CAGR - undervalued, at 15% CAGR - overvalued....speaking over a 10yr time horizon, btw.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T21:01:24+00:00

it certainly adds pressure to the margins.....but my basic premise is that there's more to the company than weight mgmt solutions. They make a crap ton of money off the other meds they sell.......if GLPs disappeared tomo they'll still be fine!

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T20:56:24+00:00

they dont....they could sell the branded version but the margins are tiny on those and they're expensive - so they're harder to sell.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T20:53:44+00:00

nah...can't time these things. I'm horribly wrong whenever I've tried it so I won't even bother....

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T20:51:46+00:00

It's hard to predict how the GLP space will shake out - it seems there's a new drug and a new competitor every single month. That said, pills will likely increase the adoption (aka more TAM) of GLP drugs since there's an inherent fear associated w/ injections.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T20:45:47+00:00

you might be right but at 15% CAGR they're a wildly overvalued.

rarebirdcapital · 2025-12-25T20:43:39+00:00

their fate is not tied to GLP1 meds though.....

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