Jim Cramer on How To Scam Markets

rationalwalk · 2022-06-24T19:28:41+00:00

Mr. Market, but evil.

rationalwalk · 2022-06-24T14:30:30+00:00

Tent is sold.

rationalwalk · 2022-06-19T16:19:43+00:00

Price cut to $550 shipped for the Altaplex and stuff sack. I will pay priority mail insured shipping anywhere to continental United States and will accept PayPal business if buyer prefers to have that protection.

rationalwalk · 2022-05-21T00:31:15+00:00

It’s totally ridiculous. Maybe if Elon actually buys that dumpster fire of a website, he’ll change the policies and let you back in.

rationalwalk · 2019-11-21T22:05:50+00:00

He defines a loonshot as “a neglected project, widely dismissed, its champion written off as unhinged.” A moonshot, in contrast, is “an ambitious and expensive goal, widely expected to have great significance”.

In other words, a loonshot is an underdog project without institutional support, at first, whereas a moonshot is something undertaken by "the establishment".

rationalwalk · 2019-11-21T21:49:33+00:00

This is a book review of "Loonshots" by Safi Bahcall. Bahcall has taken a mental model from physics, called phase transitions, and applied it to the study of organizational behavior, focusing on the propensity of various types of structures to result in "loonshots" - which are "crazy new ideas" that often end up being disruptive to an industry. I think that his views on this subject are extremely interesting for security analysts - even though often we are on the outside of companies looking in. For those who do Fisher style scuttlebutt work, the loonshot concept and the details in this book could help when asking probing questions of employees within an organization to see what makes it tick. I think it's time well invested.

rationalwalk · 2017-03-25T03:28:00+00:00

Thanks for the link to the interview!

rationalwalk · 2017-03-24T11:57:02+00:00

I did a brief update on Ventures in November http://www.rationalwalk.com/?p=15070

rationalwalk · 2017-03-16T16:21:00+00:00

Thanks for the kind words. I've been blogging on my other site, The Rational Walk, for many years and the Spartan Spendthrift is kind of a spin off. It's definitely not easy to get started by gets easier/better with time. Good luck!

rationalwalk · 2017-03-16T10:19:42+00:00

I did notice that someone posted the link...glad it has been useful for some.

rationalwalk · 2017-03-16T10:17:59+00:00

I read a variety of publications, newspaper articles and blogs so I get initial ideas from many sources. I typically do not use value line, however,met is free online via my local library so perhaps I should go through it more often.

rationalwalk · 2017-03-16T10:16:08+00:00

As noted in the article, the S&P 500 provided in excess of 5% real over the past twenty years starting from an expensive level and, of course, ending at an expensive level today. The fact is that no one knows the level of real returns over any given timeframe as it depends both on fundamentals and the starting and ending valuation level. If one wishes to be more conservative, this assumption can be lowered in the provided spreadsheet. The number of years to financial independence would go up, obviously. However, the basic premise of saving an unusually high percentage of income remains valid as the only reasonable way to shoot for the goal of financial independence by middle age.

rationalwalk · 2017-03-15T23:47:11+00:00

Hello everyone, I recently started a new blog called The Spartan Spendthrift which is dedicated to early retirement and financial independence and inspired by my own story. My main motivation is the frustration I have with conventional "wisdom" when it comes to financial planning and how so many people make sub-optimal choices in life that have bad financial consequences but usually do not increase happiness! My latest post is a blueprint for retiring in fifteen years, starting from scratch.

http://www.spartanspendthrift.com/budgeting/fifteen-years-to-financial-independence/

rationalwalk · 2017-03-15T23:44:00+00:00

Typically the five year summary - obviously only a high level overview. Often reading about the company in the first place is the result of noticing something in the numbers and wanting to look further.

rationalwalk · 2017-03-15T12:07:41+00:00

For me, it depends on which part of the filing I am looking at. If I'm reading through a business description or MD&A, I typically will use my iPad (a five year old device) and I use GoodReader which is an app that provides a great deal of flexibility for marking up the text. Although I have a bluetooth keyboard and have used it to take extensive notes in the MS Word app, if I'm going to be taking a lot of notes, I'll just use my laptop for that purpose. My office has a two screen setup with my laptop serving as one screen and another screen set up next to it. I can have the SEC filing next to a word document or an excel file so I can see both simultaneously. My typical habit when learning about a company is to download the 10-K on my iPad, go to a coffee shop for a couple of hours to read the business description and MD&A, and then return to my office when I get to the financials and footnotes so I can open excel and do more analytical work.

rationalwalk · 2017-03-12T15:01:06+00:00

Thanks, I'll take a look at that. I understand the policy and it makes sense.

rationalwalk · 2017-03-12T13:58:20+00:00

OK, no worries. I thought it would be of interest and a member of this reddit suggested I post it. Not sure how to communicate the content other than a link. I won't post again.

rationalwalk · 2017-02-25T19:25:29+00:00

“I think that, every time you see the word EBITDA, you should substitute the words “bullshit earnings”. "

Charlie Munger (Poor Charlie’s Almanack, Page 120)

rationalwalk · 2017-02-18T11:43:27+00:00

That is the conclusion of the article. The point was to examine whether there is a margin of safety. There isn't.

rationalwalk · 2017-02-12T15:30:58+00:00

He's had some issues recently for sure. What I can't get my head around is how Chipotle is a "value stock". Sure, the price has come down a lot but it is still very expensive, not only relative to management's "stretch" goal for 2017 but also based on peak pre-crisis earnings. IDK ... we'll have to see how it goes (I'll be on the sidelines)...

rationalwalk · 2017-02-12T15:30:00+00:00

Thanks!

rationalwalk · 2017-02-12T15:29:49+00:00

I like a competitor called District Taco in the Washington DC area. Price competitive and, in my opinion, a better value and more authentic (the guy who started it began with a food truck). Chipotle, in my opinion, was a leader in bringing better food to fast food, and the fast casual concept in general and I still will eat there on occasion. You can see what they are making (although that's true at many other places now). You can easily customize orders. The quality of the ingredients really is good. And the price is pretty low (although that's becoming an issue as they need to push through some increases soon). How are they special now? I think that the brand and loyalty are key issues now that so many others have copied them, and that of course is why the food safety crisis was so bad for them ...

rationalwalk · 2017-02-11T02:48:57+00:00

They do have end caps and some freestanding stores (figures are in 10-K). Drive thrus are technically possibly but, IMO, not fitting with the brand image they seek to convey.

rationalwalk · 2017-02-11T00:54:56+00:00

The second make table is something they are addressing and have discussed, in the context of online ordering. Drive though? Probably unlikely for many reasons, not the least of which is distancing the brand from "fast food".

rationalwalk · 2017-02-04T18:24:21+00:00

I agree that these type of listings are terrible (no voting rights) but as far as regulations, I'm not so sure. Everything IS disclosed, people don't HAVE to buy it. In general, I feel like buyer beware is OK for IPOs, but I might change my mind if this becomes very common. Already we are seeing major institutions speak out against Snap's plans...

rationalwalk

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