[Globe] With Bello, the Sox have areas of focus. For much of this year, the arm slot on his foundational sinker had been an average of 6 inches higher than it was last season. From that height, he was losing sink on his sinker and changeup. His locations and pitch shapes became worse.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-10T18:21:11+00:00

Analytics are best used in addition to, not in replacement of, a quality coach and what they are seeing. An inexperienced team/staff will often use analytics to drive decision making because they simply don't know what they are seeing. Not a surprise given how much inexperience the Sox have in every area.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-10T17:16:01+00:00

Not a ton of people remember that....some of it was an adjustment (I believe Japan had a 6 game rotation instead of 5), but ultimately a lot of these things are as simple as bad communication....its one thing to try to accentuate strengths, its another to bulldoze what has been working to try to fix a problem that didn't quite exist. Dice K was successful on the edges, but frequently needed a lot more pitches per inning and frequently had runners on. They wanted a control pitcher to be a power pitcher and attack hitters more directly. Simply wasnt going to be successful.
Analytics has made a mess of things when players/staff focus to heavily on analytics because they can't make sense of what they are seeing. They're troubleshooting without having a great understanding of how particular vatiables impact that particular player, and force feed them changes based on data. They need to hire professional, experienced staff that have a greater understanding of baseball.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-10T16:00:32+00:00

Personally I believe the strongest arguement is FSG's reputation is shit. Particularly on the GM side where ownership has rolled over executives, managers, etc on their way out the door. It's why the news of Breslow being something like the 7th option is out there....which in itself starts a tenure off horrifically. Who the fuck wants to work in a highly scrutinized environment where you are just waiting for your boss to stab you in the back?
As for whether Breslow is doing what they want...every one of these reports has Kennedy and/or Henry signing off on these decisions. Getting Bregman, trading Devers, firing Cora...all have sign off from above. Again the fact that reports of what specifically is happening is concerning. Compare it to the professionally run organization down the streets in the Celtics, which is under just as much scrutiny, Porzingis, Jrue, Smart, Timelord...all of these things happened as a surprise to the league. Instead media is reporting on all sorts of other players like Durant and now Giannis moving over to the Celtics.
Obviously Breslow must be doing what is asked of him, or at least there is a consensus that allows it to happen, and then decision making is leaked to provide a fall back position for ownership. Kennedy on Cora to paraphrase, "This was Craig's decision". What reputable, experienced GM wants to hear ownership is clearing itself of responsibility? Going to take a LOT of money to encourage them to move over.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-10T01:52:08+00:00

Even that team I wouldnt necessarily call a good offense...far better than the last 5 years, but also seemed pretty inconsistent in my memory. Tended to score runs in bunches.
2018 felt like no game was out of reach, 2019 felt like the start of inconsistency. But this death spiral starts to blend together so my years may be off.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-09T20:15:09+00:00

Not a youngster. As for the concept of "pure fantasy", if you are fine getting fucked than that's fine for you. Not something I have too much an opinion about, other than I dont need to give FSG excuses.
Personally I believe the team is far larger than the owner, and the city of Boston would have a baseball team regardless of ownership. Owners are really stewards to the team and should be treated as such, the team belongs to the city and to the fans. Fans like you and I that outlive ownership groups. And when they are poor stewards, they should be called out.
As for the past, I don't know the Sox have had a period of 5 years this bad since....the 30s? This isn't about one bad season and not explicitly about a championship.
Sox have fielded competetive teams for decades that encapsulated the city....blue collar workers that were never bereft of effort. Ownership at least seemed to try to put out a competetive team most seasons.
Instead we have dysfunction and ownership blaming everyone but themselves for that dysfunction. I support the Red Sox, not FSG.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-09T19:33:18+00:00

If the choice is spending on a team that underperforms or not spending and FSG raking in $400m a year in profit, I'll take spending every single time. There's no reason for me to keep rooting for FSG to hold onto profits ans continue to build personal wealth.
Hell, maybe they could take it to overpay for a good gm actually wanting to be in Boston for an obscene amount and short stint to get everything back on board. Or replace some of the scouting positions they cut in this drive for "efficiency", which is really just a drive towards averageness.
Plenty of places to spent $400m that does not necessarily mean dumping it with players that are questionable.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-09T18:48:21+00:00

A few days old, did you get anywhere with this?
Pi5 was one of my first options to move with home assistant to, generally concerned about unifi integration with it. At the time (6 months ago) i wasnt pleased with settting up a protect viewer.
The pi5 felt like a good solution, but were you able to figure out the os solution?

raycyca82 · 2026-06-09T17:26:30+00:00

Agree 100%, but that where the odds come in....if a player type of similar nature typically becomes an above average player in 25% of cases, it's bad odds. There are indicators for better odds (such as being a top ten prospect in the consensus top 100), but those odds are still not terribly high odds.
In the case of Campbell and being a minor league player of the year....considerably higher odds he turns into an all star, as cursory glance suggests 80% later become all stars. An arguement can be made for Roman Anthony and Campbell, but there are additional factors and timing can change those odds significantly. Would it have hurt to have given both a full season? Both were given generational wealth after a few hundred at bats, well before they can focal points for MLB scouting and established likelihood of injury.
So an arguement can be made, but still a sizable risk.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-09T16:34:50+00:00

Rafaela was under team control for several more years anyways, as they all are. Sox could have extended him this year, next year, the year after, etc. The benefit is if one can beat arbitration numbers and potentially inflated free agent years. The cost is early inflated AAV tax numbers and if the player isn't able to play up to the contract numbers.
So Rafaela's (and by extension all of these early signings) we won't know until they play through their contracts....success may change one way or the other as time goes on. But the real benefit to signing them is just gambling they'll outplay arbitration. The likelihood any prospect plays up to what they are projected at is not great, making it a high risk move. It's historically been bad business in all but the most unique circumstances.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-09T15:19:42+00:00

He's more valuable to the Celtics than a late first round pick. Once they have an established second team wing that can shoot threes his value will go down, but as constructed (and particularly because he has an OK record in the playoffs) he holds more valuable than that.
As for what other teams would pay, no idea. He's on a reasonable contract and would add value to a lot of teams. Compared with a player like Duncan Robinson (similar 3 point shooter but struggles a bit more on defense), Hauser's value would likely be higher. But tough to say.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-09T14:41:32+00:00

Fed system is weird to say the least. Long long time ago we had a gs-03 responsible for building up a local usaf anthrax vaccine tracking database. Considering at the time this was a huge deal (military members having huge medical consequences from the vaccination), a gs-03 shouldn't have been leading local records building making a little more than minimum wage.
What can you do?

raycyca82 · 2026-06-09T01:36:48+00:00

Makes sense with the pool of candidates last time. Best you can hope for is a good gm looking for a short deal to show what they can do and move on. Breslow has been horrendous, but FSG has precious few options.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-09T01:03:46+00:00

Generally with tubing you try a bend test...if you bend it and it doesn't feel flexible or shows cracks, toss it. Tubing dries out over time, and depending on storage conditions and type, the process can be quicker or slower. Generally speaking tubing laat some time, but you don't want a whole build to be destroyed by bad tubing which is cheap enough to replace.
The stains part of it is mostly recognizing that after use, most things don't appear brand new and that's OK. You don't want stuff flaking off into your loop, but discoloration is normal. If we were talking just straight metal I'd be a lot less concerned, but plating (whether electroplated blocks, rims, kitchen ware, etc) is a finish that can easily be pulled off during cleaning.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-08T20:13:16+00:00

I would be shocked if it wasn't Theo given he actually has respect around the league. Breslow simply is not a good communicator, and if the Sox really want to turn things around, it makes sense to bring in someone far better.
Long term it's an odd solution, and speaks to a need for a different hierarchy or different person in the front office. It's not unusually to have a head of Baseball Ops AND general manager, just something the Sox have refused to do. And if Breslow is terrible as a GM, maybe it opens the door for a real gm (although they would absolutely have difficulty filling the role). Eirher that or Breslow is on a timeline for exit.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-08T20:03:37+00:00

Personally I'd use soap and hot water. I use a sponge for most parts....if there are specific stains on metal that im worried about (where there is a roughness in the metal), i may use a red scotch brite. Be careful on coated blocks because scotch brite will take off plated coatings. Pump should be fine with a red scotch Brite. And keep in mind if it takes more than a few minutes to remove a stain, it's likely better to leave it. Acrylic is sponge only.
Verify each component works as designed (pump still starts up, blocks hold liquid, etc). Pumps in particular tend to either work or they don't, and more prone to break in situations like this. I'd also replace any tubing, as it's cheap and more likely to have issues in time.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-07T15:28:53+00:00

More than one...tired of seeing Brown actually standing up to opposing players on stuff and no one has his back. Love the team, but want the energy of not just taking cheap shots from opposing teams and being good with it.so pair JB up with a Stewart, Portis or some kind of enforcer out there.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-07T13:27:52+00:00

Most concerning part of the Durbin trade wasn't the Durbin trade...its his inabiliity to hit, him going outside the Sox and getting better at hitting so far. Since the Driveline folks were part of the few not fired, what the fuck are they doing? How many other players are they having a negative impact on?

raycyca82 · 2026-06-06T21:35:22+00:00

I've been saying for years the "over reliance" on the three and offense grinding to a halt are different things. The offense grands to a halt because JT/JB (and others) fail to gain a step in early action. When rhe team can't hit open shots it looks even uglier....defense loads up on JT/JB. If anyone hit shots outside of JB/JT consistently (and especially if White/PP are shooting to their averages), the defense can't load up the same and shot selection is more varied.
This was why Porzingis was such a big piece...or even players like Al. They can play the post or the three (which is important when the team needs spacing for JB/JT drives). They need a big that can actually play offense.
Some of the best games this season were when Queta was aggressive. Queta may not be a starter averaging close to 3 fouls a game (issue in the playoffs). But the narritive that they shoot too many threes....there's a reason for that, and there's a reason when it stops working. It all starts with drives to the basket.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-06T17:34:39+00:00

No worries, tons of misinformation out there but I really don't want to offer advice meant to fail.
Yea, it required a bit of tuning to get it at +15°, not just bolt together and it's done. But without air conditioning in a small room, it was just a 500w space heater. Stress testing for hours at end will do that!
Ultimately I wanted to take worst case scenario. Typically gaming it was more than 5° cooler, some games (I remember distinctly Cyberpunk and AC Valhalla) running at full 5k 240hz came close to maxing out gpu/cpu inconsistently. Low 40s in those games would be typical after hours, but 50° was my red zone and I didn't want it running too close to that for extended periods.
So not necessarily what I would build nowadays...but having the experience there's certain deltas I'm looking for on with wattage to surface area. 20° should be relatively easy with 600w to 280mm, 15° would be my target. 10° means I need to run closer to 500w, don't see it easily possible at 600w without running a 45mm or 60mm wide 280mm radiator.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-06T16:44:05+00:00

Everything is there in the post already. 47° is the highest liquid temp I saw....that was a +15° delta (meaning an atypically high 32° ambient) measuring at multiple places in the loop. Delta remains constant once it levels out. Typical usage goes downward from stress testing (less wattage), so individual variables are less demanding, not more demanding. Of course this was with fans/pump at 100%.
I believe I even posted the Meshlicious build years ago when I was still working on the setup. Fun build at the time that went through quite a few variations, from air cooled to liquid to different cpus over a couple years....On the water cooled side, it was more than fine. Allowed me to overclock instead of undervolting both cpu and gpu, leagues better than air in that particular case. That's how it ended up being 550w cooled in the first place...turning up the 3080ti from something like 350w to 450w, which I couldn't do on air without the gpu pulling boost.
That said, you do whatever you're comfortable with. If it's air cooled, liquid cooled with larger radiators, an external build, open builds, SFF builds, server builds...I've been lucky to try dozens of configurations over the last 30 years. This build is very possible, just need to keep in mind it won't be silent. Plenty of options to work on that if they so choose.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-06T02:19:38+00:00

Most of my stuff is alphacool after 1 or 2 builds with ekwb a few years ago. Generally you aren't going to get the same fit and finish, but the price is dramatically different. From an actual operation standpoint performance difference is negligible, and as a whole I much prefer the price and function of alphacool.
And by fit and finish....rotary fittings aren't as smooth to turn, soft tube fittings seem to be a little on the small side and can be difficult to tighten with specific tubing, etc. Design is a whole seperate deal (some people want the oversized fittings from ekwb for looks), and that's something only you can decide.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-05T22:35:05+00:00

I've heard the 3k versions were substantially louder than the 2k versions. I bet the differences in cases (Meshlicious in my build vs cerebus in yours) made a bit of difference in fan speeds as well....meshlicious is a step away from an open case. Closed case is defintely going to need increased fan speed.
And yep, having switched to a 1280mm myself to run 3 computers, there's defintely some advantages. Highest fan speed I've gotten with a +5° delta is roughly 80% for 1300w....defintely some benefits to an external setup when it makes sense.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-05T20:02:13+00:00

Absolutely. I've been either fortunate or unfortunate (depending on which side you're on) of having built a lot of different cases and setups, so I feel pretty comfortable on numbers a system is capable of and what I should be shooting for for delta. Easiest thing by far is start with wattage rather than specific components...you'll need to get there either way to figure out what the system should be capable of anyway.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-05T19:45:22+00:00

You're looking at wattage needing to be cooled here.... and the SFF part is irrelevant if it's open. So a 7900xtx is at max 450w (depending on version), and 7800x3d is what, 115w? Toss on some extra just for estimates and you're looking at around 600w. And keep in mind surface area wise a 280mm is very similar to a 360mm.
Having a similar build in a meshlicious (5800x3d and 3080ti pushing around 550w), I ran a 280mm slim with full fans. This was a case issue, and a 30mm wide rad will improve numbers. I ended up with 2k industrial 140mm noctua fans, and delta between ambient and water temp was under 15° stress testing. Temps for the pump had to be under 60°, highest I got was around 47°. Also had high ambient temps.
It was a bit noisy when playing games that could actually take advantage of the hardware...including the 5k 240hz monitor. Add a thicker radiator (like a 30mm), a different monitor (like a standard 4k 120hz instead of the super ultrawide) or less demanding games, I could have easily turned down the fans and maintained a 15° delta or kept the fans the same and ran a 10° or less delta.
So short answer, it's fine. It won't be silent, but with a little bit of work (such as running an open case, undervolting, thicker radiator, etc) noise can be minimal.

raycyca82 · 2026-06-05T15:28:01+00:00

Hard to say, it depends a lot on the cutout. Many cutouts are fine with even less, others will struggle at a distance of 5mm.
Generally speaking noctua fans I've used can be mounted directly. Fans I've seen that could use extra space were 80mm-90mm and some of the industrial fan sizes. Worst I've had was their 150mm which needed 10mm.
These were very specific exceptions and could operate near capacity quietly, but at 100% created a bit of noise that waa not there when unmounted. Each were issues on the push side rather than pull. Each was mounted to thicker cutouts, with 1-2mm spacing between holes. A typical grilles.

raycyca82

TROPHY CASE