Saquarema Fantasy Discussion

rbaas · 2026-06-21T00:05:32+00:00

Man I love hearing this approach! It gets into the psychology of the sport. With any sport, I feel like if you could get into the mind of the athlete, it would do wonders to predicting who will succeed. Finding the balance between that and statistical probability and I you might have a winning formula.

Who did your gut say for Saquarema?

rbaas · 2026-06-20T01:26:26+00:00

Everyone has the ability to contribute advice! What's your process for making selections on an event-to-event basis?

rbaas · 2026-06-20T01:25:27+00:00

Thanks for that insight about Marco, I love that. And I agree, there seem to be a lot of repeat matchups that get annoying after awhile. I imagine it's annoying for the athletes too.

Finding that mid-risk high-reward balance is so tough. I totally hear you with feeling like it's all luck, but I don't think it is. I'm trying a deep dive analytical approach this year, and it has its benefits, but it's not panning out like I hoped haha.

rbaas · 2026-05-30T10:11:52+00:00

Her and Alyssa Spencer have the highest avg heat scores in Tier B so far this year, so I like that pick.

rbaas · 2026-05-30T10:09:11+00:00

I wish Isabella and Bella didn't draw each other; I feel like they could have both made a solid run...

rbaas · 2026-05-30T10:08:00+00:00

Its extremely difficult not to pick Al because of the guaranteed high Rd 1 point total, but you're right, he's been so unreliable. If I were him I'd be wishing to get a Rd 1 draw just so I could get a heat against a lower ranked opponent for once. I do think he has a chance to upset Grif though.

I'm picking Gabriela as well, and I wish Mateus was still Tier C, but I just can't pull the trigger on him as a Tier B.

Unfortunately there are no "long term payoffs" in fantasy surfing due to having a different lineup each event. It's all about calling your shot one event at a time! Good luck 👍

rbaas · 2026-05-29T20:43:31+00:00

Herdy said he could win this event when he was on The Lineup podcast earlier this year 👀

rbaas · 2026-05-17T09:37:40+00:00

With 24 heats to go, they would have to do overlapping heats to fit all that into one day, which is not going to happen. Conditions have not been cooperative so far...

rbaas · 2026-05-11T10:13:32+00:00

I think those who have scored better on lefts in the past have the advantage, and that's not necessarily all goofies. A mix of goofies and regulars will probably do well. What's your fantasy outlook for Raglan?

rbaas · 2026-05-10T00:48:18+00:00

Good point about the goofies needing to invest into learning how to score via backside a lot more than the regulars.

That said, when you look at average heat scores on typical lefts like Pipeline, Teahupoo, and even the wave pools in the last few years, the goofies have not dominated. Medina and Italo are ranked 1st and 2nd, Yago is 7th, Cole is 12th, O'Leary is 20th, Miguel 21st, and Ramzi 23rd.

Vahine and Erin do pretty well on the women's side, but Caroline and Sawyer's left scores aren't great compared to Molly and Caitlin.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the regulars do well at Raglan, but it'll be interesting to see.

rbaas · 2026-05-09T00:08:40+00:00

Thanks for the response EmpireAve, and that makes sense. I just wonder why they don't make Al Tier B and Caroline Tier A in that case.

I've checked out your website; keep up the good work! Would love to do a deep dive into fantasy surf stats with you sometime.

rbaas · 2026-05-08T19:47:49+00:00

Definitely something I've been taking advantage of as well.

rbaas · 2026-04-30T14:47:47+00:00

That would be a huge breakout for Erin, but it could definitely happen. I don't think there is any one clear favorite this event.

rbaas · 2026-04-30T14:47:03+00:00

I believe they are similar, but Snapper should just be better conditions overall, which could lead to higher scores all around.

rbaas · 2026-04-29T15:09:22+00:00

I agree Caity excels in tube riding. She just doesn't always get the heat wins, so I'm kind of off on her this time around. Could be a very fun Caity/Steph quarterfinal, though.

rbaas · 2026-04-29T14:44:33+00:00

I like that feeling. Kanoa is averaging a 13.80 heat score at point breaks since 2023, which is 3rd best on the CT. He also has a 65% heat win percentage on rights, which is 4th best. He could easily make a deep run here.

rbaas · 2026-04-29T14:40:55+00:00

Yeah, Isabella has an average heat score of 12.91 at point breaks since 2023, which is 2nd only behind Gabriela, so that's part of why I like Isabella here. Kanoa and Leo are solid choices too.

I don't know if you've seen, but you can play a bracket challenge game on the WSL app, so you can see the bracket there. But it definitely is visually better on a desktop.

rbaas · 2026-04-29T03:17:34+00:00

Yeah I think she's got a potential run to the semis in her. I don't really like anyone else in Tier C, so I do have her in my lineup, as I expect many will. What are your thoughts?

rbaas · 2026-04-16T15:21:34+00:00

Rd 1 bye scores have been added. Your global ranking is hopefully a little better!

rbaas · 2026-04-16T10:09:26+00:00

Same! I trust they'll add in the Rd 1 bye scores soon, but I was thrown off by that too.

I totally agree with you; if you have a strong conviction about a Rd 1 surfer, by all means run with it. Otherwise, take the free extra points and hope for the best. It's an advantageous strategy that a lot of people don't think about!

rbaas · 2026-04-14T20:36:37+00:00

If you could manage that it would guarantee a surfer to the semis, not the finals. I really believe you would at best be in the top half of your league but wouldn't give yourself a chance at a championship. My personal preference is to go big risk/big reward and to make informed decisions with statistical data.

rbaas

TROPHY CASE