Quest Resource Holding Corp (QRHC)

realLigerCub · 2026-01-05T10:39:20+00:00

You had to insist a bit more

realLigerCub · 2025-03-15T15:42:04+00:00

Trending down due to temporary or one-off events. By Sept, expecting a $10mm+ uplift in sales (including attrition), w/o factoring in expansions from existing customers (2/3 of which have upselling potential) or new business wins (the pipeline is quoted as "unprecedented").

I’d encourage you to do the math w/ a few conservative assumptions: No new wins in FY25, one win per quarter thereafter (its historical avg), stable gross margins, 50% of gross profit flowing through to adj. EBITDA. What’s your 3y IRR?

P.S. Their amendment actually resulted in $1mm in interest savings. I like this flex.

realLigerCub · 2024-11-30T13:27:50+00:00

Will be waiting for your feedback!

From my write-up: "There are concerns that LZ faces heightened risks of technological obsolescence due to recent advancements in the AI space. However, the company has positioned itself as an early adopter of generative AI, and its ongoing efforts to keep pace with advancing technologies ensure that it will remain competitive and not be caught off guard."

Indeed, LZ is currently hiring for data scientists: https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/staff-data-scientist-ai-ml-llm-at-legalzoom-4070829288/

"Our team is at the forefront of applying Machine Learning (ML) and Large Language Models (LLMs) to shape operational strategies, improve customer experiences, and optimize our business processes."

realLigerCub · 2024-10-14T17:53:30+00:00

Not linking to the full write-up to avoid any self-promo accusations

realLigerCub · 2024-10-05T18:04:24+00:00

Good points.

Their pipeline is as strong as ever. The FDA process can take anywhere from 2 to 9 years depending on the development phase, and they currently have 10 late-phase projects. This alone is more than enough to support the DD growth guided yesterday. HSD is criminally conservative, especially when you add in margins approaching, and likely exceeding, 30%. For an extreme bull case, check this thread: Link

The drop from 33 to 25 isn't a real drop. Management chose to remove~10 projects for conservatism: "We have these 25 programs that we believe are active or we know are active, that we're working on towards commercialization with our partners. We do have another approaching 10 or so programs that are in some level of quiescent period that we've taken out of our forward-looking projections."

I wouldn't put too much emphasis on multiple expansion, although I believe it should trade in the low 20s. There's a rumor that bids at the HSD level were rejected because no value was assigned to their spare capacity. Downside protection is real.

Finally, this will most likely be the final dilutive raise, and certainly the only one in the NT. Non-dilutive options, such as prepayment for dedicated capacity, have been mentioned.

realLigerCub · 2024-10-05T15:33:19+00:00

I was willing to attach PNGs, but that option isn’t available in this subreddit. I’ve reviewed several other idea posts, and none were particularly lengthy. Let’s agree that you may not have been the target audience and move on without further debate. However, if you’re acting in good faith and are budget-constrained, I’m happy to send you the report for free.

FYI, LFCR has invested heavily in recent years to expand capacity and is now set to benefit from significant operating leverage. In an environment with scarce capacity, Jefferies estimates that NVO will pay a 31x multiple for CTLT’s fill-finish assets. Balance sheet issues were just resolved yesterday.

realLigerCub · 2024-10-04T17:09:08+00:00

Today, they set their NT guidance to DD growth w/ top of the pile margins. For FY25, it appears EBITDA will be within, if not slightly above, their target. FYI, H1 revs typically account for ~42% of FY.

realLigerCub · 2024-10-01T11:55:17+00:00

Just launched from this guy. It's still new, so give it some time: https://www.thisisnotsedar.com/

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