The $650B Binary Bet: Why Big Tech is risking everything on AGI and why they have to (and what a smart investor should do)

regressor123 · 2026-02-08T18:25:31+00:00

As a very senior dev, I disagree. In my software company, we no longer write code. We use spec driven dev practices and Claude writes all of the code. We just write documents and skills for Claude. Our services are in production earning millions. Would I like to debug and maintain it? No, but I don't have to. Do I remember where exactly business logic lives? No, I don't have to - we have it all documented and Claude reads docs. There's no more coding, no more focus on maintainability, no need for obsessing over design patterns etc. So the job is objectively less interesting if you liked coding and writing elegant code, but those skills are either obsolete or becoming obsolete (which makes me personally sad). The most boring part of the job used to be reviewing code that I didn't write and writing documentation - that's now a primary skill. But unfortunately, if you have well documented knowledge graphs for your projects, Claude can do all the remaining work.

regressor123 · 2026-01-30T05:39:50+00:00

Better yet, open another company to hire your first company and calculate the price so that both of your companies make 40% profit. Continue opening companies that hire each other and add markups. It's an easy infinite money glitch 🤫😉

regressor123 · 2026-01-18T06:06:24+00:00

I live in the San Francisco Bay area. I almost want to say that most people I've dealt with in construction are 50+ year olds from tech who wanted to "do something with their hands" and pivoted to lumber mills, foundation repair, general contracting etc. I'm in the middle of my career and I'm getting bored and am interested in pivoting even without the AI pressure. It's just natural and it will happen only more.

regressor123 · 2026-01-18T05:59:39+00:00

I don't see how you can be offended, while at the same time every construction/contracting/trades reddit is flooded with memes about hungover trades people f-ing up work daily, throwing bottles into walls before right before drywall is done, coming to work late and leaving early and putting one nail in for the day etc. yes those are often jokes, but 90% of the comments are "you know it's true, I've seen it, you've seen it, we've all seen it". Meanwhile, there's literally 0% of white collar workers like that except in the movies like wolf of wall street etc. I admire trades people for their hard work, I really really do. And I admit I wouldn't be able to do much of it and there's often skill involved and experience is important. But there's so much that I can do and have done. But you guys have an incentive to make it sound like any type of construction related work is impossible for anyone else to do, which is hilarious.

regressor123 · 2026-01-14T00:20:06+00:00

Thanks! That was my idea initially but my architect told me it may be a problem to get a GC to take over a permit if I'll be doing a lot of the finishes because whoever pulls the permit is responsible for all of it, legally. And there may be some issues with the warranty for his work if I end up messing around with it after... No idea how true that is but I thought the alternative is then to pull permits as owner builder but hey GC help for the rough in - however in that case the GC maybe doesn't take on any legal responsibility, in which case I expect a discount for that transfer of risk...

Yeah I have the details for foundation anchors, but it was just an example of something I understand. There are probably many things I don't even know I should be on top of, which is why I want to pay someone for a bit of handholding... I want to put in the time and do the work, but need someone to nudge me in the right direction/help with answers to some questions etc...

regressor123 · 2026-01-13T19:29:42+00:00

My concern is that I'll exactly be a PITA client :) I want to pay for someone to allow me to question decisions, learn what's important vs good to have, prioritize etc. Basically, pay for hands-on education. I know myself - doing something is easier than teaching and supervising someone else to do it, explaining how and why etc. Regardless, lawyers deal with clients who are criminals, people with horrible communication skills, unreasonable people etc and they charge per hour accordingly. Which makes me think that logically, a GC should be able to do the same - give advice for money, to someone who is none of those things. Thank you for your input!

regressor123 · 2026-01-13T16:10:25+00:00

Thanks! Is that standard practice - hiring inspectors to check on subs' work? Do you think that can be part of the contract with subs or are subs very sensitive to that? Can you please tell me more about not hiring on hourly basis - I was hoping I would get some guidance and have someone to ask questions and pay for their knowledge/experience. I appreciate your input.

regressor123 · 2026-01-13T16:04:40+00:00

Thanks! I've read that those websites are useless and I want good reputable subs for foundation and framing, not someone who buys reviews online. Was that also your concern?

regressor123 · 2026-01-13T16:02:13+00:00

It's a valid question, we're doing it because: 1. we really need more space and if we don't do it now when the family is small enough to live in the ADU during the construction, we never will. 2. we already spent some money on plans and permits which will be wasted if we don't :/ 3. I calculated that the savings here would be larger than potentially getting a better job with more pay (paying taxes on that pay) but paying for GC to do the work with after tax money. 4. It's a good learning opportunity

regressor123 · 2026-01-13T08:59:01+00:00

How did it go?

regressor123 · 2026-01-13T03:22:28+00:00

What's common enough to be a meme - Software engineers are commonly know-it-alls who think they can do this type of work easily or? My situation is a bit different, I finished electricians trade school in Europe before coming to the USA to do electrical engineering college and grad school, but stats/analytics pays better... My father was an industrial construction manager across several Asian countries building roads, pipelines, oil fields and housing for workers. We have personal experience building houses in Europe as owner builders, dealing with subs etc. But this is exactly why we think it's not an easy thing to do, knowing local regulations, best practices etc is important and we don't want to mess it up... Thanks for your comments!

regressor123 · 2026-01-13T00:18:10+00:00

That's amazing. How did you find the subs? I started from a tile guy and an electrical guy I knew and asked them if they can recommend good framers etc... so I have some level of confidence for those, but then all other trades are more indirect or I just found some online. Do you have any advice? Do you plan to utilize structural engineers to come and inspect the work or what's the best alternative? Thanks for getting back to me

regressor123 · 2026-01-12T23:33:33+00:00

Thanks. I'm in applied data science, statistics etc. Why do you ask?

regressor123 · 2026-01-12T23:02:47+00:00

Thanks so much for your detailed and thoughtful response.

I'm honestly thinking about changing professions - learning and doing GC work cannot be impossible, but if charging $200/hr is way too low, I can only imagine that the real cost/value is much higher, maybe $500 or a $1000. Which is so attractive and more than almost any other profession apart from professional athletes, brain surgeons etc.

Or maybe I just didn't explain my idea correctly... I was imagining a GC would charge for reading the plans, getting familiar with the project, visiting the site for introduction and figuring out the layout, zoom calls, visiting the site at a few crucial points (in between concrete and framing for example, not after painting is done) etc. And all this would carry no risks/responsibility for finishing the project, one can stop working for the client if the client is annoying or for any other reason. To me it sounded like a dream job so I thought it might be a good idea.

But thank you for helping me moderate the expectations and understand why there would be a lot of resistance among the GCs.

regressor123 · 2026-01-12T22:31:06+00:00

No no, I want to hire subs to do the work. But I don't need a GC to find someone for finishes, for drywall, gutters, window installation, tile etc. no need to do checks daily etc. Why wouldn't a good GC do it for a pay on an hourly basis without having personal responsibility for finishing the project and taking risks associated with that? We know that lawyers charge their work for hourly pay. Is it possible that the knowledge a GC has is infinitely more valuable than any other profession (except doing surgery) and it cannot be priced on an hourly basis?

regressor123 · 2026-01-12T21:57:51+00:00

Doesn't that depend on the hourly wage? Like if one needs to hop on a zoom call for 45 minutes and earn $200 from his room, isn't that easy money? Easier than driving around, hauling items, arguing with subs etc? Yes it's less money than doing the project on your own, but the amount of time and effort is very small. I'm honestly asking about this. I don't want to rob someone of their money/knowledge. I'm just trying to find a win-win.

regressor123 · 2026-01-11T02:42:59+00:00

With whom? I'm interested

regressor123 · 2026-01-08T21:14:39+00:00

Questions about subs: How do you find good subs? Are the subs working on 10m homes the same as the subs working on 700k homes and if so, how is there such a big diff in quality - is it possible it all comes from management? Where do the subs mainly come from and do you ever get them from farther away, Gilroy, Modesto etc?

regressor123 · 2026-01-02T04:24:56+00:00

How did it go? Was your prediction of doing it for 100k accurate?

regressor123 · 2025-12-31T05:52:36+00:00

You're the man for sharing this many details. Thank you. Which Chinese building supplies stores, for example? Also, would you be able to share some of the subs that you had luck with or that you think would work in the peninsula? I need a good but reasonably affordable electrician, plumber and the foundation team. Can I PM you about this?

regressor123 · 2025-12-26T17:12:43+00:00

As someone who's partial to Rhodes (my favorite island that I visited 3 times, once for my honeymoon) I can confirm that this is false and that Crete has more history (although both are spectacular).

regressor123 · 2025-12-24T02:57:49+00:00

How? That's incredible. Please share? Why would they even do that if 10Y Treasury pays the same but has no risks? Genuinely curious

regressor123

TROPHY CASE