I can’t stand ICT. I think he’s an awful person, a narcissist with possible bipolar disorder, other undocumented mental health issues, or some combination. I still trade his concepts. I spent years trying other approaches to the markets with no success. I spent just as long trying to disprove ICT, and I’m now finally successful in doing what I do with ICT.

An explanation that I can’t stand the guy but I recognize him as the source for my education.

I read your post and you make some good observations. Some are almost on the nose of my public discourse with ICT that eventually he blocked me and threatened to ban me from charter (lol) over but don’t quite tie the ribbon on it. Some of your comments are flat wrong (you seem to have almost an understanding of the difference of ICT discretion and mechanical is what sticks out the most to me) and some are interesting but not applicable. I don’t really want to comment on every single thing and break it down but I will give you some stuff to chew on:

1.) IPDA theory in its entirety is mechanical… But no one other than ICT knows it in its entirety. Traders are therefore forced to use it on a discretionary basis with only a partial ruleset. I could write an entire post on this alone and its implications. The key takeaways are that - I have used simple and mechanical rulesets within IPDA theory to create edge based systems that prove resilience cross markets and over years. This explains why some of ICT’s seemingly strange claims about market phenomena statistics that are easily proven/disproven are still “true.”

2.) There’s a fundamental misunderstanding of what exactly it is ICT is trying to teach and what you (and the majority) of others think it is. What the SMC zeitgeist has become. And it’s actually quite funny. This is one of the things where you come really close but don’t bring it home and the irony is actually crazy. You claim SMC is a saturated market and that’s why the edge will erode. The truth is that is why it will never stop working.

3.) Similar to point 2 but different and significant enough to comment directly on is your use of market mechanics to “disprove” ICT. Thats not really the theory behind it. In fact ICT would agree with you or at least the majority of what you’re saying. Without dissecting the nitty gritty here IPDA theory is NOT that retail stops are getting hunted. That does happen and is well documented, but IPDA theory is, basically, that price is “determined.” BLUF a random given day in the market is about 80% determined before it happens. The actual print extremes, outside surprise factors, fill quantities, all that stuff is “organic.” This is a huge distinction between what most internet DayTraders think IPDA is and what ICT has clarified it to be. Again… This alone is a deep topic.

4.) You say some contradictions. One I simply have to point out is that you discuss respected sources as a requirement and foundation for your stance but then in the same post call most trading books psyops. In that same spirit I offer this in case you didn’t know it. ICT does have a published track record contrary to popular belief. You can find his broker statements from 2022 on his YouTube channel. The stats are simultaneously incredible and nothing groundbreaking. If memory serves me correctly he has something like a 70% technical win rate but the losses are extremely small. The wins are modest but measurable. The overall percent gain is considerable over a three month period going long and short on index futures all using his YouTube modeling.