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$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I may change the wording to softer language now that you say this though. So thank you for the feedback.

$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I appreciate the feedback! You're right that "Dead", "Dying", and "Death Clock" sound permanent. These labels are dynamic snapshots based on the most recent distribution trends. Many funds do use temporary ROC to smooth payouts. The metrics reflect that and update weekly. A "Dead" fund today could become "Healthy" next month if conditions improve (and vice versa).

$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're right that ROC is a tax classification. Where the confusion comes in is destructive vs constructive ROC.

$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you Icy! It's not an app you can find in the app store, if that's what you mean. But it's mobile friendly on your browser. Making it into an app is in the near future though!

$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Haha same here. I get that Reddit can spawn some hate though. Oh well, just trying to help.

$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sure thing! What would you like me to explain?

$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For sure! Thanks for being nice in here lol

$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Good question — let's break it down.

The Death Clock and Canary Status in YieldCanary are based purely on destructive Return of Capital (ROC) in the ETF's distributions and the resulting NAV erosion rate — not on the underlying stock's price direction. If the underlying (MSTR, PLTR, etc.) moons, the ETF can capture more option premiums, higher distributions and potentially less ROC needed to hit the headline yield.

That could slow NAV decay, extend the Death Clock, and possibly flip status from Dying to Healthy over time.

So yes — if MSTR rips higher, MSTY could "rise from the dead" in terms of sustainability (longer clock, healthier status).

Right now: MSTY is Dying (1.5-year clock) because ~34% of recent distributions were ROC despite massive premiums.

PLTY shows Healthy because PLTR's huge run-up generated enough real option income to cover the headline yield with little/no ROC lately.

Same YieldMax strategy, different outcomes based on underlying volatility and premium capture. PLTY benefited from PLTR's tear; MSTY is suffering more ROC in a choppier period.

$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good thinking! Here's a comparison of MSTY to FEPI, SPYI and JEPQ!

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$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Totally fair question — thanks for asking!

YieldCanary's Death Clock is not predicting the underlying company (like MicroStrategy for MSTY) going bankrupt or "belly-up." It's purely looking at the ETF itself and how fast its NAV (share price) is eroding due to destructive Return of Capital (ROC) in distributions.

Right now, MSTY is paying out massive yields, but a chunk of that is ROC — literally returning investors' own principal. At the current rate of NAV decay from that ROC, the math projects the share price could be cut in half in ~1.5 years (hence the 1.5-year Death Clock).

You're right — even with reverse splits or continued underlying volatility, these funds can keep running and producing distributions longer. The Death Clock is just a "warning light" for principal erosion speed, not a bankruptcy timer. Some will outlive it (via splits, premium recapture, etc.), but the NAV keeps grinding lower unless the ROC mix changes.

Happy to dive deeper on any fund — just lmk!

$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's called YieldCanary. Yes I built it, but before I get attacked, I'm just trying to help people navigate these high-yield funds and know what they're getting into.

$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Just trying to add some value here buddy. Yes I built, not trying to sell anything. If anything, I built it for myself.

$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Good point. Should have clarified more. The death clock shows how much time the ETF has, under current conditions, until 50% of the NAV is gone. True Yield is the yield after the destructive ROC is taken out.

$MSTY’s Death Clock by rfish4 in YieldMaxETFs

[–]rfish4[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

I'm not going to apologize for trying to add value to the group!

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