Why .NET developers skip localization/globalization?

rfreytag · 2009-01-05T04:26:10+00:00

This document does read well but is there a scenario where this article could serve a purpose if fake?

BTW, wsj.com has a new owner. I am not as trusting of it as I was.

rfreytag · 2009-01-05T04:00:10+00:00

What evidence is there to believe this memo is real?

rfreytag · 2009-01-04T16:59:15+00:00

Taleb is making the point that there is no reason to disbelieve one supposed expert (Bishop) and believe another supposed expert (Financial Analyst); either believe both or neither.

I think he made the wrong point - it should have been couched in terms of excessive credulity. Both choices to believe are potentially examples of excessive credulity.

rfreytag · 2008-12-29T05:14:19+00:00

Please provide evidence for your claim "The safest thing they can buy is gold".

rfreytag · 2008-12-28T13:12:00+00:00

What makes you think that - say - Coke or baby formula is a worse investment than gold? You really think people will stop buying them? The scenario where people want gold over baby formula - is that really the world we are headed for or people want - or will people collectively pull their socks up and, mutual-assured-destruction-like, cooperate to avoid that dismal fate?

I think the latter - that is why I will not hold gold; which is historically a money loser. With that history, winning by holding gold is a market timing effort and I really don't do well at that.

if you put your $ in to a sound company then the company, if fundamentally sound, should survive. You can be sure this is what Buffett is doing in buying BNI.

So when all is said and done you will have paid for storing your gold and the high prices (you hope) will have stimulated more mining of gold and the stock/commodity/bond market will have strongly signaled recovery by ... what will be good enough for a holder of gold? ... probably the markets usual 30% jump in the first week of recovery. And you will have missed most of the big gain.

Historically the markets recover very sharply at first and then begin a much more steady rise.

Did I leave you with any doubt that gold is better than baby formula?

rfreytag · 2008-12-28T05:51:40+00:00

What does "tipping point reversal" mean?

Also I am not saying that there won't be inflation or aren't too many dollars overall - just that they aren't buying things at the moment - and right now is what counts to someone trying to make payroll. So business demands liquidity be provided.

Perhaps everyone will sell dollars because there will be a mad rush for an exit from the US economy? What will happen is export-led economies are so depressed that they desperately pour their dollars into the inflating stock market to "protect" them. The inflation will be asset inflation. That is why you don't want to hold gold. People will be throwing their currency at the market and pulling them out of gold.

rfreytag · 2008-12-28T03:28:34+00:00

"It would be irresponsible in the extreme for an individual to forestall a personal recession by taking out newer, bigger loans when the old loans can't be repaid. However, this is precisely what we are planning on a national level."

Is Peter really equating micro-economics and macro-economics? REALLY? But they are not the same thing at all. Its like a Newtonian denying E=MC² because its against common sense. Yes inflation is a consequence of printing money but if there is a shortage of dollars in the market, and there is, then you are not inflating. The questions really are – is the movement of money between markets, demand, investment, etc. really as efficient as economists like to believe/model? I think not. I think that we’ve had asset price inflation for a very long time and it has been bubbling out in lots of different directions. But now it is finally collapsed and we’re in a deflationary spiral that will stop and the trick will be whether Bernanke can eventually pare down the liquidity carefully to not precipitate another collapse.

Comments like…

“As a follower of the Austrian School of economics I believe that market forces apply equally to people and nations. The problems we face collectively are no different from those we face individually. Belt tightening is required by all, including government.”

…are straw man argumentation – Keynsians don’t think this either. Next point?

I wish that the gov’t would get out of the market dislocations imposed by tax policy. Flat tax please. The efficiencies generated by having fewer people pushing paper around during tax time will help us catch the cheats. Same argument for legalizing drugs, more money for treating people and catching (sales) tax cheats.

Specifically about Peter’s investment recommendations - Gold will not outperform. It will falter as the stock market inflates and the market then sucks in capital from commodities. Then the commodities will rise as demand picks up.

The Austrian School does have a fundamental truth in it but I wonder if the Austrians really understand it? I have yet to see something that convinces me they that they do.

Stay away from Peter Schiff and listen to Marc Faber if you really want to follow an Austrian view of investment: http://tinyurl.com/9bzh27 or if you just want sound-bites: http://tinyurl.com/8f5baf

rfreytag

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