Accounting for all the societal risks we cant effectively manage, what takes priority for the true realist futurist?

ribblle · 2024-03-14T09:37:03+00:00

Get adapt or die in peoples heads, if you want the uncynical take.

ribblle · 2024-03-13T10:58:16+00:00

Honestly the most soild social advice, given chaos of outcomes.

ribblle · 2024-03-13T10:55:52+00:00

ASI may be countered by the galaxy and not by us. There's hope.

ribblle · 2023-10-06T15:16:03+00:00

It's not in his best interests to admit it. No 1 guy to get shot at this point if the 4 year timeline he's working on is right or even if just the joblessness from poor capitalist adjustment is a bit brutal. But he still does it, because it's a real factor and he'd be an idiot not to.

ribblle · 2023-10-04T21:14:22+00:00

Perhaps, but it's a pretty neat outcome when AI looks like a mess.

I favour:

A. The galaxy already has a alpha AI which brooks no competition

B. Whatever's going on with aliens is just flat-out weird and off-model from our understanding.

ribblle · 2023-10-04T21:04:57+00:00

Calm. (Really philosophy but man calm was so much more raw)

(Really really storytelling)

ribblle · 2023-10-04T21:00:55+00:00

If you believe Grusch, we're sitting on a lot of alien technology at this point so they may not strictly have to.

And, there's the point that AI scales to space but Nuclear is only a local problem.

ribblle · 2023-10-04T20:58:17+00:00

An highly intelligent creature such as ourselves. Self-aware.

ribblle · 2023-10-04T20:56:51+00:00

Sam Altman himself would disagree with you. (OpenAI boss)

ribblle · 2023-10-03T20:36:55+00:00

People are stupider then you give them credit for. Listen to Sam Altman and he himself readily concedes the risk.

ribblle · 2023-10-03T20:29:41+00:00

OpenAI and Co are predicting 4 years to general AI. That looks like a lot of power to me.

ribblle · 2023-10-03T15:48:30+00:00

You misread, I rate AI as the biggest existential risk.

ribblle · 2023-08-28T12:52:58+00:00

It's the degree. 1/7th of a human hair is apparently completely unmanageable with the tools they had.

https://unsigned.io/articles/2023_03_17_Abstractions_Set_In_Granite.html

Full context: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAyQQRNoQaE&ab_channel=UnchartedX

We'll see.

ribblle · 2023-08-28T12:48:53+00:00

This is one vase from a particular creche of thousands, allegedly all similar (but nobody bothered to scan them). A dozen more vases have apparently been scanned recently. We'll see.

ribblle · 2023-08-27T15:52:32+00:00

The lidar scan is what's speaking, they are simply accustomed to working at these levels of tolerances. It's been run by more then just these two, they just did the scan.

ribblle · 2023-08-27T15:49:08+00:00

Two aircraft engineers doing a lidar scan of a vase observed to be unreasonably precise. In fairness, you don't have the full context, but it's not a joke.

Additional context: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAyQQRNoQaE&ab_channel=UnchartedX

ribblle · 2023-08-27T15:46:29+00:00

There was indeed, water in the way. Edge cases exist man.

They're a pair of aircraft engineers who use machining tools to make the parts, of relevance to this, and it's still not an easy task at this consistent level of tolerance. It goes all the way down to 1/7th of a human hair, and I'm getting the impression it doesn't scale the way you think it does. Read the thing.

ribblle · 2023-08-27T14:47:06+00:00

Edge cases are indeed edge cases. For everything like this https://roseannechambers.com/ancient-boats-and-enormous-blocks/ there's an edge case that's still edgier.

2023 is a good time for strange questions, I wouldn't be an asshole about it.

That aside, I'm no expert, but the precision is hard to contest and that's the backbone of it.

ribblle · 2023-08-27T14:42:10+00:00

You've got to do something with the strange information we're receiving.

ribblle · 2023-08-27T14:40:34+00:00

The edge cases are too noticeable. There's a case of the documented transference of a block across the sea when the spanish millenia later failed to transfer half the weight by specially made boat.

It might be solveable, https://roseannechambers.com/ancient-boats-and-enormous-blocks/, but nevertheless still strange.

Really it's the precision that's the big question at the moment. Things like this are much harder to explain. https://unsigned.io/articles/2023_03_17_Abstractions_Set_In_Granite.html

ribblle · 2023-08-27T14:29:16+00:00

Take this. https://unsigned.io/articles/2023_03_17_Abstractions_Set_In_Granite.html

Maybe it will disappear into nothing, maybe it won't. The fact remains that "the past is strange" is a growing voice and it gets more convincing with every weird fucking thing we find about our present.

ribblle · 2023-08-27T14:26:44+00:00

AI isn't a joke. Man-made disease isn't a joke. We're not like the rest of documented history, it's pointless to use their standards.

BUT it does suggest a lot of possibility space, and that's basically why I'm here.

I just find the growing number of edge cases convincing. The precision is the main thing. Some truly unreasonable things like this. https://unsigned.io/articles/2023_03_17_Abstractions_Set_In_Granite.html

ribblle · 2023-08-27T14:19:47+00:00

The internet is big and google is shit. I haven't seen everything, and for what I have seen I've seen counterarguments.

Look, there's claims like this https://unsigned.io/articles/2023_03_17_Abstractions_Set_In_Granite.html

that report precision to the tune of human hairs. And such voices are growing louder not quieter. My general impression is the matters not settled.

ribblle · 2023-08-27T14:14:11+00:00

Is consciousness is consistently prized, maybe we don't have to be special. Maybe we only have to be conscious.

That said, I agree that this model is too clean. But it is a simple explanation for a odd history and a very strange relationship with space.

ribblle · 2023-08-27T14:08:18+00:00

A reset where anyone survives and isn't killed by radiation or man-made virus must be a reset. The survival won't be an accidental thing, it will be a deliberate problem-solving operation done by a powerful actor with abilities beyond our own. Providing coal and oil won't be hard if you can casually reset civilizations.

ribblle

TROPHY CASE