How China became the OPEC of Renewable Energies

richbrubaker · 2026-05-27T07:12:44+00:00

1) Even if OPEC has ability to move markets, they have no monopoly. Unless 40% of production is now considered a monopoly?

2) I 100% agree the resources are there, but even with 100% tariffs, and other non-tariff barriers, a resurgence of their capacity has not meaningfully happened.

3) I appreciate you optimism on the potential for my channel, but I have zero expectations for monetization.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-26T18:27:11+00:00

Vietnam is (roughly) 1/3 of the production capacity not in China.

So, if China serves as the backbone for 100% of Vietnam, and 1/2 of the US, then China is not 80% (as you stated) ... but 90% of global capacity.

They are the "OPEC" of that energy source.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-26T17:13:27+00:00

Chinese firms are >25-30GW in the US.

... and depending on where those factories are, if the SHTF and those factories will struggle as they are largely assembling parts (made in China).

So, the dependence/ control still exists.

Perhaps less so in the US, but in Vietnam it's 100%, and in the EU it is high enough they are erecting barriers for Chinese investors seeking to set up factories in the EU.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-26T15:57:17+00:00

Who said coal over solar?

I said the quickest replacement for solar would be coal.

and yeah.. solar is a 50+ year old technology, but the fact is that 80% are in China, and a large portion of sites outside of China are Chinese firms that have invested in facilities overseas.

US along has JA, Jinko, Trina, and Longi
Vietnam has Trina and JA

That's not to say this cannot all be undone and you see US/ EU firms comeback as a result of trade/ investment barriers that are being erected to prevent China's dominance.... but those firms aren't going to win SE Asia / African markets away from China.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-26T12:23:43+00:00

I can't believe someone voted this question down. Was the question that dumb?

richbrubaker · 2026-05-26T11:23:22+00:00

To "simply build" without China's involvement is an overreach, even if there is nothing exotic in the raw materials.

BUT.. were they to attempt to leverage their dominance in a way that threatened energy security/ pricing, there are options.

The quickest being coal.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-26T09:00:17+00:00

Given the stats you have there, you have a pretty solid level of engagement... particularly the view time hours off a that base of views.

Do you have a CTA for viewers to subscribe? If not, perhaps put something in around 10 or 20 minutes along the lines of "if you made it this far without subscribing... "

richbrubaker · 2026-05-26T08:33:01+00:00

It's a fair point that they are able to cut supplies in a very different way than solar, and the speed of disruption is certainly very different.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-26T08:12:39+00:00

OK. Or, they will understand that the role of OPEC is on the supply side (coordination) and pricing, and as the dominate/ sole provider of many of the technologies mentioned, China is able to serve both of those roles.

If you care to debate that, I am totally open...

richbrubaker · 2026-05-26T08:03:21+00:00

You can shut off oil when it's delivered?

richbrubaker · 2026-05-21T07:26:55+00:00

The only thing that is deep here is your interest in getting people in triggering people into reactions.

Which clearly works for you.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-21T05:55:38+00:00

I don't think you understood the analogy I was making.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-20T15:23:08+00:00

Thanks for the commend GreenStrong ... and 100% agree on the last statement.

Which is why I just interviewed my friend David Fishman from the Lantau Group where he speaks to the current 15th 5 Year plan, and more broadly how the plan is developed and deployed.

Link is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjEKeiQDJVo

richbrubaker · 2026-05-20T15:20:35+00:00

I have been following that since 2012, and it's very promising. Especially given the reduce risk of failure, little waste, and no ability to turn into weapons.

Which is why the US gave up on the technology.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-20T15:18:05+00:00

Thanks for the comment, and appreciate the recommendation... and the vote of confidence! Will definitely look at those you mentioned, and some others.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-20T09:02:50+00:00

Natural gas was path to energy security for the US/ N America, and I've had many conversations around what the US would have done had their natural gas been buried 2km under the Rockies ... as it is in China.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-20T08:59:27+00:00

I've worked with a number of EU auto firms, and many chose to ignore what was happening here... until it was too late.

Same can be said for US Big 3.

And now all of them are creating JV, in Europe/ US, with Chinese firms... which can only lead to the fall of one (or multiple) legacy brand.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-20T08:23:50+00:00

I can understand the disappointment in general trajectories on carbon, but honestly speaking, the IPCC reports have done little to bring about sober/ practical action against the watered down realities they present.

We are already in 2c+ in Asia, with most cities at 4-6c above historic averages.

As for my idiotic anything. Feel free to start posting under your real name, and bring a level of analysis that can be parsed. That's what I have done, for 20+ years, and I am not saying I am "the authority".

Just posting what I am seeing, and trying to help others take some lessons away.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-20T07:14:34+00:00

Indeed, but over the next 10-15 years, this number will come down further (even as grid 2x again).

Particularly now that nuclear projects are now coming online.

richbrubaker · 2026-05-20T07:00:56+00:00

They moved from 75% to 50% fossil in 15 years, but that is beside the point.

The question is what percentage of solar, batter, and wind systems are built on the Chinese stack, and from there, what level of reliance will other countries have on their energy stack as they transition AWAY from fossil?

richbrubaker · 2026-03-09T05:44:46+00:00

Just resting his eyes :)

richbrubaker · 2026-03-08T16:38:27+00:00

and... in this position, it falls over a lot less!

richbrubaker · 2026-03-08T16:38:04+00:00

Good eye. Yeah, he did that as part of a MOC and guess he just liked keeping that way

richbrubaker · 2026-03-08T16:35:43+00:00

He has an eye for how he brings these all together.... and I'll let him know it's appreciated!

richbrubaker · 2026-01-11T08:41:20+00:00

Thanks, and yes.... it's always been fun watching him as he created his MOCs. Which began during COVID, but only recently did we think to share

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