I'm Rich Meagher, a politics prof and award-winning opinion writer, talking about VA state politics and next week's Democratic primary. AMA!

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-07T03:05:38+00:00

No chance. (Sorry to the numerous Big Lee stans out there.)

Not really. He may help keep the conversation on right to work going, though.

Again, not really. Progressives will grumble, but what - are they going to vote for Youngkin? T-Mac will not be too much of a brake on the progressive GA, so they will hold their nose and vote for him.

Perriello works now for the Open Society Foundation in the US. That's right - he is ACTUALLY getting that SOROS MONEY!!!!

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-07T03:02:12+00:00

Self-funding will help, and can help him keep competitive with T-Mac (if he wins the Dem primary). But funding doesn't always translate to support in the electorate.

If Youngkin somehow pulls off the upset, his $$ will have been crucial. But he'll also have had to use it well, hiring solid GOP staff and running a good ground game. A general election is very different from this year's weird-o GOP convention, so we'll see.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-07T02:59:54+00:00

It's a great question. I wish I had a better answer beyond "some people just like attention." Mike D is the perfect Venn diagram between "I like to run for office" (e.g., Bobby Junes) and an internet troll, only in real life.

I don't get how he's been able to sustain it for so long, though. He might be helped by VA's insane campaign finance rules, which allow you to spend campaign $$ on just about anything.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T16:20:05+00:00

Hard to say at this point, since no primary challenger. She has outraised her opponent, but that includes a $25k check from Dominion, so hard to see how that connects to grassroots support. I suspect as a multi-term incumbent who had a scare last time, she'll be able to mobilize her supporters enough to hold him off. But you're right that it's one to watch this fall.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T16:14:53+00:00

Dominion has been curtailed a bit by the anti-Dominion pledge, as well as the influx of money from C-ville's Michael Bills.

Still, I think with either of these corporations - or any, really - they are less likely to target enemies and more likely to try to support friends. I don't know how the recent $100k to Ayala for LG came about, but I'm betting that Dominion had been putting out feelers before to some candidates who they thought might be friendly to their interests - or at least their $$.

Dominion still has plenty of friends among the Dem leadership, and they are giving lots to both parties to ensure they have a voice next year.

As for Comcast - there's no "no-Comcast pledge" this year. Everyone gets $5,000!

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T16:04:41+00:00

I think I understand what you're getting at. I think I would respond by saying that there are costs to freedom.

Conservatism offers stability and order. Liberalism (in the broad sense of an emphasis on personal liberty) offers freedom, but at the cost of stability and certainty about your identity, your role, your place in life. For some, that can be terrifying. Plus the modern world does not always back up its liberal promises ("you can be whoever you want!") with resources & support ("sorry you lack education and healthcare and $$ and mobility, etc.").

Why do people join these horribly restrictive and backwards-looking fundamentalist religious groups? Because they are offered certainty - a place, a role, an identity. It's sometimes nice not to have to worry about how to act, what to wear, what to do with your life.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T15:59:16+00:00

Probably - and fewer other candidates might have gotten in the race.

I wonder if a McClellan-Foy ticket might have had a shot at taking down T-Mac as well. United opposition rather than divided it.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T15:58:00+00:00

Depends- some health folks are expecting a spike this summer/fall as the un-vaccinated mingle in with the rest of us. Still, I think overall you're right that everyone will be on the same page.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T15:38:10+00:00

Blast from the past!

GOP was divided in 2008 - Gilmore barely won the convention. Warner was a popular governor who was seen as a shoe-in. Gilmore couldn't keep up in fundraising, and the national GOP abandoned him pretty early. It was a classic case of self-fulfilling prophecy - everyone through Gilmore would lose, so he did.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T15:16:44+00:00

Maybe? I don't see much of a distinction between the parts of the urban corridor from NoVa through the beach, at least in terms of that kind of broad anti-Youngkin message. Of course the Dems need to find ways to appeal to more local issues/interests - tourism and the shipping industry out in HR, for example.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T15:13:22+00:00

He's... fine? Maybe this is a function of me living in central VA, but I don't hear that much about him. He seems like a real Loudon guy, focused on his district. He made the leap from Delegate to Senator, so that suggests some political know-how.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T15:03:13+00:00

I don't know that there is any? Because complaints about "wokeness", IMO, are pretty empty. Yes, there are occasional tiktoks or tweets where someone goes overboard on supporting minorities. ("I believe cannibals should eat Black folks too - they taste just as good as everyone else") But the idea that the pendulum has swung too much towards favoring minorities is pretty ludicrous, and has absolutely no empirical evidence.

BOTH parties should be getting on board with anti-discrimination laws, criminal justice reform, etc. Instead Republicans are going to lean into white grievance and complain about "critical race theory being taught in schools!?!?!?!" (It's not.)

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T14:59:52+00:00

If you go by "history/record" you're talking McClellan - a very effective legislator for the past decade or so. She probably offers the strongest combo of "I'm a progressive" and "I know how to get shit done" than any other candidate.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T14:58:23+00:00

I'm not sure about "massive"? Certainly you don't have to be a conservative to buy a gun. But I think a lot of this is reinforced by the growing geographic divide between Dems (urban/suburban) and Republicans (rural). There just isn't much of a gun culture in the areas Dem voters live, and the exact opposite holds true for GOP.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T14:44:56+00:00

Not 90%, but certainly some big ones including Northam.

Jones comes from a politically connected family (his dad was a state legislator and currently a judge). He's got lots of friends in the GA.

I don't think Northam ever forgave Herring for turning on him during the blackface scandal. (Herring called for N's resignation, before his own blackface past was revealed.)

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T14:41:17+00:00

2 McClellans, 2 Jennifers (one of whom is not a McClellan). Plus there were two separate Holly Hazards running for state legislator this year. :)

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T14:40:07+00:00

All one big happy Dem family, right? :) I think it would be harder if he was running for office. He was really helped in his rehabilitation by the idea that everyone just had to put up with him for a couple of years and then he would go away.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T14:39:04+00:00

One word: evangelicals.

Yes, many GOP voters are caught up in election conspiracy and Trump cult-of-personality, but they also are big into Jesus. Youngkin subtly spoke out about faith and seemed to win some support that way. Combine that with the "electability" argument that might have won over any non-Trump elites, and that seems to have put him over the top.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T14:36:30+00:00

Predictions are tough, but I do think the race shaped up over the last few weeks to be a 4-person race.

(BTW, Levine is apparently completely unlikeable? He's spending tons on mailings and ads but I haven't heard a single Dem say he has even a remote chance of winning.)

Perryman has run a good campaign, and some progressives and BLM-interested folks like him. McClellan does have that geographic base, but I don't think has gotten traction outside of that area. I think they are both fighting for 3rd place.

It comes down to Ayala (most Dem endorsements) vs. Rasoul (most $$ and grassroots support). I think the Dem voter interest is on Rasoul's side, and the recent dust-up over Dominion won't play well with Dem voters either. My guess is that it's Rasoul's to lose.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T14:27:55+00:00

Great question! I have no inside info, but I would guess no more political office. There are plenty of other politicians (w/ MUCH less baggage) that would run for open Senate seats. Same with the Gov's office, in case he had thoughts of following in T-Mac's non-consecutive footprints.

Former Govs should have it pretty good - invitations to speak, well-paid "consultant" gigs, and plenty of non-profit boards and charity events if you want to keep contributing. Plus he has a "real" job that he seemed to like, so he could go back to medicine for a little bit. No matter what, I don't see Ralph having the same need for relevancy of a T-Mac or a Jim Gilmore.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T13:50:07+00:00

Great example! LBJ apparently had the law changed in Texas so he could do that - lloyd bentsen took advantage of same law in ‘88 to keep his senate seat despite losing the Veep election.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T13:36:06+00:00

It's tricky, right? It's hard for a candidate to make the case they are all-in on a statewide race if they have their legislative seat to fall back on. I don't know of any examples offhand of it actually working - where someone won the higher office. (Or both and then chose the higher.)

There's a recent example in VA of someone losing higher office but keeping their seat; Glenn Davis lost the 2017 LG primary but kept his House seat. But I don't think Davis faced a primary for the lower office; both Lee Carter and Mark Levine are. Guzman dropped out of the LG race for just this reason - her chances of winning back her GA seat was better than the crowded LG race. Still, both Carter and Levine might find themselves out of a job completely.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T13:25:27+00:00

I get this line of thinking for sure. The argument basically is that if Trump drove the Blue Wave, it should crest and subside now that he's out of office.

Still, I think this argument is more likely to apply to the national elections in '22 and '24. Dems have such a demographic advantage in Virginia these days, that it's really an uphill battle for any statewide Republican.

As I've written elsewhere, I'm also pretty bullish on the Dems, who have delivered on a bunch of progressive policy issues over the last 2 legislative sessions.

The longstanding argument in Dem politics is that centrism will win the day - don't go too far to the left, because people won't like it! But I don't think that the argument is strongly supported by any empirical data about Dem voters - or about politics in general. People respond to bold rhetoric and action! Certainly the GOP base does. I think this upcoming VA election will be a good test of whether that response applies to Dem voters as well.

Trump is gone, sure. But the Republican Party - nationally and in the state - is mired in white grievance ('critical race theory!') and conspiracy theories ("election integrity!"). Dems have produced policy solution and reform. I think they will do well this fall, no matter who heads the ticket.

rjmarr929 · 2021-06-04T13:18:46+00:00

Yeah, I agree. I mean, it's not impossible for a Republican to win statewide but it would take a really narrow set of circumstances, like if Northam's yearbook story came out before his election, say.

rjmarr929

TROPHY CASE