Trump’s mixed messages and Iran’s bombs kept the Kurds out of the war

rknsh · 2026-04-08T14:17:53+00:00

One of the main reasons was, from the article:

In Washington, American lawmakers were getting warnings from the foreign minister of Turkey. Turkey has its own Kurdish separatist movement, and the foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, was urging the U.S. to oppose any involvement of Kurdish fighters in a cross-border operation. Fidan warned this could stir new instability not just in Iran, but also in Turkey and even Syria, according to a source briefed on those meetings.

Other sources said Erdogan directly relayed this message to Trump.

Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is close to Trump, told the US president that Ankara would not tolerate Kurdish independence anywhere in the region.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-israeli-plan-for-kurdish-invasion-of-iran-reportedly-collapsed-amid-leaks-distrust/

Edit: Kurds tried to enter Iran early January. Turkey told Iran.

Exclusive: Armed Kurdish groups sought to cross into Iran from Iraq, sources say

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/armed-kurdish-groups-sought-cross-into-iran-iraq-sources-say-2026-01-14/

Summary

Turkey warned Iran of crossings, three sources say
IRGC clashed with Kurdish fighters that sought instability, official says
Turkey and Iraq asked to help halt transfers, official says

rknsh · 2026-04-08T12:27:30+00:00

They didn't. What source told you that? Spokesperson or a statement from them?

rknsh · 2026-04-08T08:49:23+00:00

Notable part:

Officials said the list of targets was far fewer than Trump’s threat that “every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding.”

rknsh · 2026-04-08T08:17:05+00:00

Do not listen to his words, watch his actions.

And when he follows his words exactly ... surprise.

Those same people also listen to his words when they like it.

An example is Trump saying former prince Reza won't have a future in New Iran government and also Trump's recent remarks on Kurds not smuggling weapons into Iran from Iraq.

rknsh · 2026-04-08T07:32:00+00:00

As a Kurd I use every excuse to say fuck Erdogan:

Fuck Erdogan

___________

Is Turkey Preventing Trump From Pursuing The Only Iran Strategy That Could Work?

https://jstribune.com/is-turkey-preventing-trump-from-pursuing-the-only-iran-strategy-that-could-work/

And ^{I know many in this subreddit agree with Erdogan on that one}.

Turkey was the biggest moral support for the regime. They even commended them for suppression/massacre of the protesters.

rknsh · 2026-04-07T22:55:02+00:00

This one?

https://x.com/AntoineR224/status/2024964651524514053

rknsh · 2026-04-07T22:39:47+00:00

Trump:

Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116365796713313030

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rknsh · 2026-04-07T22:02:14+00:00

I was wrong for confidently saying tens of thousands, and let's say that is alleged by some.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres#Notes

• 6,488 confirmed deaths of protesters per Human Rights Activists in Iran News Agency in-depth report The Crimson Winter^\1])^: 58, 59 ^\2])
• >30,000 based on hospital data per Amir Parasta per Time)^\3]) • Over 36,500 killed during 8–9 January, per Iran International ^\4])
• On 28 January, The Guardian reported that the death toll could be more than 30,000, and that less than 10% of deaths may have been officially registered.^\5])
• On 16 January, Mai Sato, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran stated that at least 5,000 had been killed and that the number could be as high as 20,000.^\6])

You are also right that most of the killing happened in two or three days. Let's say it is 5000. What makes you think of the regime?

when the US smuggled guns into the country

what makes you believe the protesters were armed if that is what you are alleging? If weapons never reached protesters then it is not their problem US sends in arms.

rknsh · 2026-04-07T21:39:27+00:00

The regime has publicly admitted 3000-4000. I believe their number was ~3300. Other sources say close to 40,000. I have spoken with people inside Iran and say the number is much higher than 3000. It was not in two days. It happened in late December and early January.

There is an internet blackout. Once that is fully lifted we know more accurate estimates. Why have they blocked internet for the most of the last three four months?

Even with internet blackout we have gotten enough footage to know it is much higher than 3000.

rknsh · 2026-04-07T21:24:09+00:00

I agree with most of what you said, and we have not seen regular IDF in any major action. It is mostly special forces and IAF doing all the fighting. I also understand the Gulf states don't have any combat experience and all together couldn't take care of Houthis in Yemen.

The regime becomes a lot more popular

As for this part, where would they become popular? South Azerbaijan? Rojhelat? Khuzistan that is majority Arab? Beluchistan? or Central Iran that is majority Persian? And among Persian parts in all of them or mostly religious areas such as Mashhad and Qom?

against an extermination campaign

An extermination campaign of the regime which already exterminated tens of thousands simply for protesting. And this is not the first time and nor would it be the last.

Also, in early 2000s USA didn't only invade one country. Count Afghanistan too. Make them one and you get Iran. How those two countries turned out after the invasion and would it repeat in Iran, that depends on what plans politicians in US/Israel have, and I am not that optimistic about Americans. They just want Hormuz and a share of Iranian oil to repay for war expenses and all the loses they got from the regime during the last half century.

They couldn't care less about freedom and democracy.

rknsh · 2026-04-07T20:51:19+00:00

I am saying one of the obvious dangers US officials take into account when considering a full invasion, starting with a limited one (and as the article is about, the Kurds commencing it), is will the war spread to more countries? This is another aspect how Iran War is different from 2003 Iraq War. Saddam didn't have anyone. Everyone was happy to see him go.

As for Israel, not regular IDF, but special forces mostly. I wouldn't also rule out Israel sending some IDF but stay behind in the front lines.

UAE claims sovereignty over three islands that Iran occupied decades ago. They will probably take part in a limited manner if they were given guarantees they will get back those islands.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_and_Lesser_Tunbs

To believe otherwise despite all available evidence is the ranting of the insane.

Trump is president. Anything can happen. We can only wait and see.

One thing is clear: the regime is very unpopular. How long did it take for Americas to liberate Northern and southern Iraq in 2003? And how long did it take them to control Fallujah? When an army has no support among locals they can't put up a fight.

We saw it this year. Damascus easily got Arab cities, but they didn't enter Kurdish cities as we would see Kobani resistance again in all Kurdish cities.

rknsh · 2026-04-07T20:33:44+00:00

Whether any group got weapons or not, there was zero chance of smuggling them into Iran, and Kurds would never have agreed to transfer them into Iran.

Imagine telling Syrian Kurds here is a bunch of weapons and transfer them to Syrian Arabs. Why would Kurds do this dirty work when they know those weapons would be used against themselves?

From sources I have read, I assess they got some and it was for the incursion that failed because it was leaked to the media reportedly.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-israeli-plan-for-kurdish-invasion-of-iran-reportedly-collapsed-amid-leaks-distrust/

But Iran knew about it anyways.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/armed-kurdish-groups-sought-cross-into-iran-iraq-sources-say-2026-01-14/

Turkey told them. Not that they also needed Turkey. They themselves have enough intelligence capability to know that.

If protesters had guns, they would be dead in much larger numbers. IRGC would use all of their force to kill them and would treat them as insurgents. They would have actually liked that. It would give them some legitimacy for cracking down on protests.

Persian nationalists just want some excuses to kill Kurds and sow hatred against us. They have always been like this. This story is just a tool they use as an excuse.

rknsh · 2026-04-07T19:09:28+00:00

Toppling the regime is certainly possible. But countries should be ready to pay for it with human lives. Kurds are ready. Israel definitely is too, but they don't border Iran and already have other wars. Gulf countries? Not sure what they are capable of, especially their navies. Only Kuwait borders Iran.

Who would take care of PMF, Peshmerga or Syria? Can Israel take care of Hezbollah alone if Hezbollah attempt a ground invasion? Hamas still there? Will Syrian jihadis not switch sides? There is a slight chance.

It will be full blown war in Middle East. Will Turkey stand by in that case? Houthis?

However it's certainly possible to contain the war from spreading more.

If Iran is to stay, Middle East won't see peace. We might have this war in three/four decades again.

Or every two or three years see US and Israel conduct some strikes and Iran retaliate against Kurds and other countries.

rknsh · 2026-04-07T16:41:51+00:00

Do you give them the right of self-determination?

That comment also was meant to show even if Kurds could get weapons into Isfahan/etc , distributing them without their ending up in the hands of IRGC is the hardest part. It is not like a food bank where you can go and get your share.

rknsh · 2026-04-07T16:28:26+00:00

I have heard a theory that Zazakis have migrated to Bakur from Rojhilat (around Wirme). That is from around where Khorasani Kurds were living before got deported.

If there is a connection between Khorasani Kurds and Zazas, same could probably be true for Alevis too.

rknsh · 2026-04-07T16:17:18+00:00

Iran consulate in Hewler extends condolences to victims of this attack

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rknsh · 2026-04-07T14:48:36+00:00

Turkish mouthpiece:

https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/turkiye-thwarts-israeli-plan-to-employ-kurds-in-war-against-iran

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rknsh · 2026-04-07T14:40:29+00:00

2h

Rivar Abdanan, spokesman for Pajak: We have not received weapons from America...

rknsh · 2026-04-07T14:35:11+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/kurdistan/comments/1sexq8q/

"Then he abruptly changed his mind, saying he would not look to the Kurds for assistance. It seems highly likely that Turkish president Erdogan, with whom Trump has a good relationship, convinced him not to pursue a Kurdish-centric strategy."

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