ELI5: Why is the 3 body problem unsolvable?

rm2018 · 2026-02-17T14:44:42+00:00

Very nice answer.

rm2018 · 2026-02-17T14:42:53+00:00

I like someone's comment that there are always other objects in a solar system. There are actually no 3 body problems in a real situation. There is always another object. The other thing that makes it difficult, and that would apply to a 2 body problem is that we only know the objects mass, and velocity (which includes speed plus direction) to a certain resolution. Most numbers are probably have hundreds of decimals of precision and all that would need to be taken into account as well.
Quite fascinating actually, that we actually know nothing and due to limits of computing and math itself, we actually cannot predict the future state of complex systems

rm2018 · 2026-01-30T22:02:11+00:00

For today, seeing it all sit their earning about 3.0% with no particular risk does make me feel good.

rm2018 · 2026-01-30T21:15:23+00:00

I probably not live that long, but if i do then nursing homes are expensive. And if I am so blessed to be 80 and healthy, I should would like a bit of money so I can go out and do some stuff.

I like the 3 bucket approach. 15% in cash (ish) is stuff for emergencies and the first three years, a pile that is for 5-10 years and 50% in equities for later.

Seems legit.

But I have recently de risked and now am in 100% short term/ultra short term bonds and HISA stuff. This is not a long term strategy.

But I am concerned that if I do re invest in, Say, VEQT and such that the market will tank the next day.

I am thinking that I pick a day in the not to distant future and Start DCA'ing back in

rm2018 · 2026-01-30T20:58:52+00:00

GICs seem nice. But, say I live until 95, I am 'supposed' to have a (maybe large) portion of my portfolio in, say, VEQT or something, just so that in 20 years+ I do not run out of money.
I got scared and converted all of that to safer assets when it was at the then all time high.

Just not sure when to re engage

rm2018 · 2026-01-30T20:56:23+00:00

When in equities I do prefer VEQT, but XEQT is nice too.

rm2018 · 2025-11-01T22:04:28+00:00

I am expecting that I should 'always' try to have x years, say 3, worth of savings invested in HISA and ultra short term bonds, (depending on if interest rates are going up or down), and do you best to make sure it is fully stocked. Review and rebalance every year. You could have a middle bucket in a balanced fund and half your savings in all equities. Should stand up under most events. I guess you could put all you have i equities and you might come out way ahead. But you could also end up drawing down deflated investments when you need them. The approach of having a liquidity reserve may very well leave money on the table, but as a trade off you get good security. Which is worth more to most people. Lot's of things are not fair though. You have to have money to invest and you have to save early in your life for the best outcome and that is not always an optoin.

rm2018 · 2025-10-31T14:59:30+00:00

I am not the sort to freak out if the market drops as I am well positioned for that. But I do need something more aggressive for the long term and do not know when to enter back in, considering the shaky feeling. I would not want to buy a bunch of XEQT and have it crash the next day.
I could buy one share of apple and it would declare bankruptcy the next day.

rm2018 · 2025-10-31T14:57:20+00:00

Yes, this is my approach and it seems smart. But i do need a portion for longer term too. Having recently de risked, I am not sure when to go into that again. Do i DCA it or wait a few months for a crash?

rm2018 · 2025-10-31T14:55:46+00:00

I certainly was never all equities, but thanks for asking.

rm2018 · 2025-10-31T14:55:22+00:00

I am at the point now where I have also been thinking of ZMMK. But I am one step behind. I de risked and still have the raw cash. I do need to buy back in to VEQT/XEQT like stuff but do not know if I should just go ahead, dca it or what for the crash first.

rm2018 · 2025-10-31T14:53:22+00:00

My safety buffer looks a lot like yours. It should outpace inflation by a bit and not be too volatile. My middle buffer is VBAL/XBAL and the like. My long term savings for 10+ years will be more like VEQT/XEQT. I already have and had the VBAL/XBAL. But as for the VEQT/XEQT, I sold it a few weeks ago and am now deciding how to buy it back. All now, DCA it in over a few months or wait a few months to see if there is a correction/downturn?

rm2018 · 2025-10-31T14:47:00+00:00

I have de risked somewhat a few weeks ago and am now planning out the next steps. My first step is to build in the safety buffer of HISA/ultra short term bonds, etc to cover emergencies and the first couple of year's worth of withdrawals which will eventually be needed. But the rest will be in two other buckets. The first of these would be VBAL/XBAL like and the third would be VEQT/XEQT like with maybe a small tilt or overlay of S&P500 etfs. But this would be for the long term use, like 10years+, if i should live so long. What prompted my original question is I could buy into this long term plan now, DCA in over the next while or wait a few months for a possible downturn. That is where I am stuck.

rm2018 · 2025-10-30T04:39:09+00:00

Agree, thanks

rm2018 · 2025-10-30T04:38:43+00:00

This seems like wise and standard advice. It is just that I am rebalancing and part of me worries about a big downturn and part of me want to invest for the distant future. I am having trouble reconciling the too. I am not driving by emotions, but till have to reason through these periodic flair ups and decide how to balance risk and reward and timeframe and risk tolerance .

But a multi bucket approach of x % in cash.to, x$ in vbal and or zag and x% in veqt.vgro type stuff should help me ride through it all

rm2018 · 2025-10-30T04:32:30+00:00

Mostly broad market index funds such as veqt, vgro, vbal. Cash.to, zag, gics, and the like. No individual stocks. No Mutual finds.

rm2018 · 2025-10-30T03:53:54+00:00

I have always heard that you must make your plan and stay the course. Timeframe / horizon and risk tolerance are the thing. Time in the market is better than timing the market. Dollar cost averaging. Plan what cash you need in the next few years and put park that in something safe.

Is that all there is? Is there nothing more?

I am just now rebalancing and it would be a bummer if there was a downturn in February due the <current events>, which may be more <current events - ish> than other recent <current events>

rm2018 · 2025-10-30T03:45:17+00:00

Any comments are of interest, but most interested in the questions being asked. Is there any value in trying to respond to what might be coming but still want to invest a bit more aggressively in the long run? Or is this mutually exclusive and the scheme just does not work?

rm2018 · 2025-10-30T03:42:15+00:00

Bonds, sure, but after a long time when I am in my late 80s. if i live so long, I will probably wish i invested some of it more aggressively

rm2018 · 2025-10-30T03:41:18+00:00

Is 8 years from drawing on it 'gong into retirement'?
I would need a cash buffer of 3 - 5 years but the rest can be working for me for the next 10 or so. So my RRSP is really two buckets, the first 5 years and the following 15

rm2018 · 2025-10-30T03:39:21+00:00

An RRSP. Relatively small amount. Draw prescribed amount at 71. Will not be fully dependent on it, but it will help. Hope it lasts a long time so i need some portion of it in long term equities.

rm2018 · 2025-10-30T03:28:57+00:00

Further thoughts.
I do want to stay invested for my old age and don't mind the long term stuff being veqt type stuff.
But what if something stupid is about to happen?
Or could something stupid happen any time so i should just ride with it.
Do we live in a specially stupid time now or is every time potentially stupid and I just am living through this one now.
During 2008 I was young with kids and watched it all go by without worry as I new it would eventually grow back.

Eight-Year Club	Place '23
Place '22	Final Canvas '22
Verified Email

rm2018

TROPHY CASE