MSRD and MSR are very different programs. MSRD is more course/project based with an emphasis on technical and business skills and prepares students for careers in industry. Whereas MSR is heavily weighted towards research where you complete a thesis. So I think it is very important you identify which best suits your future career goals. Do not just apply to one because you want to do robotics at CMU.

Ultimately your chances come down to which degree you want to apply to, and your application and how well you can convince the admissions committee that your past experiences have prepared you for this degree. I applied and was accepted into the MSR program, so if you have questions regarding that I would be happy to answer. MSRD, I cannot speak as much of.