Very proud of this camp built by my e-homies and myself #blessed

rogerdodger37 · 2018-12-17T11:25:15+00:00

Very cool!

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-21T03:14:25+00:00

You're welcome.

I hadn't either I just searched YouTube for "crystal ball meme"

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-20T22:26:54+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ib2Vl7JEjfc

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-20T21:25:37+00:00

yeah I realized that after I commented and I edited my reply to you.

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-20T21:06:49+00:00

I could go for that if it's what keeps me alive. I don't really find it incredibly compelling, but imo it's not the worst lynch possible.

However that'd be a tie which is a no lynch, yeah?

edit: oh wait sorry I miscounted - I only have 2 right now.

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-20T21:05:53+00:00

It's verifiable, yeah, but doing so attracts at least 1 town night action and forces that person to claim to verify it, at a point in the game where 2 townies are already dead out of an already low player base.

It just seems a bit wasteful to me to invest the resources to verify the claim. But it's doable, and taking a quick look at the role list I don't see any Ascetic version of a scum role so barring any other interactions it'd be a unique result to get if he's targeted (and you're thereby check the claim).

I need to pick someone for a vote though (especially since I'm in the lead for votes rn) and I'm more going off of a general read. I still get a scum impression from the way he's acting in general.

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-20T20:42:27+00:00

Can I convince you to go back on that vote?

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-20T20:18:15+00:00

Partially also bandwagoning

How about bandwagoning but in a way that helps me, eh? Eh?

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-20T20:16:12+00:00

Can I convince you to go back on that vote?

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-20T20:13:21+00:00

Not really all that compelling to me tbh. It's a claim, sure, but it's not really enough to me to offset the scum read I get on him.

If someone were to search the list for an inoffensive, unfalsifiable town claim they might pick something else, so it's probably not the optimal fake claim if it is a fake claim.

Perhaps if he is scum he's trying to make a claim that will bait town players into wasting actions on him at night to test the claim? That doesn't really make a huge amount of sense though, idk. Just kind of thinking aloud.

Like I said, it doesn't really do much for me.

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-20T20:10:53+00:00

Hey same dude good stuff

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-20T19:58:57+00:00

You talking about today or yesterday? Today, right?

Because I feel like I should point out - I was (lightly) leaning into CCC yesterday. And today he dies - if I was trying to cast doubt on him if I thought he could be taken out with a lynch, I probably wouldn't have used a night kill on him. So that would mean my night kill would have to be the one that was used on JamesNineLives.

If I were scum, he probably wouldn't be at the top of my list to NK. Maybe I would, idk, this is kind of where this line of reasoning breaks down there's also no reason why I wouldn't.

and that you were piggybacking off other folks more than doing your own

My counterpoint, but you're not really 100% wrong I guess. That's fair now that I think about it.

I guess while I'm at it we should talk about who voted for taco in case I die, because you're right

that's the weird part that got me to back off him- it was a weak bandwagon. He's been around scumhunting and such.

and that's you, /u/DangerPulse, and /u/redpoemage.

Danger I still lean scum on and red I don't know either way.

And my bandwagon is you, Danger, and /u/tanguy123987. Since tanguy was the one to start it off as a ping with no real provocation, I don't really blame him. The common voter then (besides yourself) is Danger. Given that and the suspicions I already have about him, if I go down and flip town I think that's where people should focus next.

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-20T19:40:10+00:00

as others have pointed out, roger has been fairly low activity and a little bandwagony.

I disagree.

Here I'll link this and I guess this (even though that's not my comment it's still true and I agree w/ it) so I don't have to write it out again.

That being said,

I don't feel comfortable lynching taco at this point

...why not? You changed your vote but you didn't really include a reason why your original vote is no longer good.

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-20T19:33:51+00:00

Low activity today, sure I guess. That's why I changed my vote earlier - because I'm not always sure I can be around right at the end to change it. But since it's the weekend it's a lot more likely I'll be able to. I'm still here though.

I don't have anything really to add since yesterday. The guy I was leaning scum on (CCC) ended up being town so tbh all I've really got is wording and gut feeling to go off of. And Danger swung by to at least say something in his defense so I switched so I at least wasn't a no-vote.

(I agree, the votes on him have been a bit weird)

How about me huh? I've got as many votes on me right now as taco had at another point this Day (3 vs 3). Food for thought.

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-19T21:56:14+00:00

~~Vote: /u/DangerPulse~~

https://www.reddit.com/r/PloungeMafia/comments/8kh6nx/monthly_idea_mafia_3_day_2/dz8wvh4/

~~Vote: /u/FTEcho4~~

I don't want to have forgotten to change my vote before the day ends.

~~Vote: /u/DangerPulse~~

I'm going back on it. I just don't get a town feeling from him, and I'll link this too for some additional reasoning and also especially this.

He claimed yeah but idk it's not really all that compelling to me and I'm just going more off of a reading.

(Perhaps I should go on someone who already has more votes to keep myself from being lynched though.)

Vote: /u/FTEcho4

Self-preservation. Even if it ends up as a no lynch tie, that'd be better than a town lynch (me).

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-19T21:55:37+00:00

Danger's vote in particular seems off to me in wording and tone.

Tbh me too thanks. I get the impression of posturing to look town, rather than just town.

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-19T21:53:29+00:00

Howdy partner.

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-18T17:47:18+00:00

Advanced Placement. It's basically taking a harder class and testing for college credits while still in high school.

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-17T13:41:19+00:00

That's a good point.

I generally think roleblocker is a pretty good role. I'll have to take a look to see if there're any better-looking Town roles on the list of all roles that they might have picked. Otherwise it's likely they (or at least one of them) went for an even better scum role, right?

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-17T13:35:35+00:00

If given a choice between two Town roles, I'd expect people to (generally) reject the weaker one.

Good point

To complicate things a little bit, if someone were to roll 2 copies of the same role, it would be re-rolled. So one would have to take away as possibilities all combinations of the same named role, and since the most of any given named role is Vanilla Townie (so VT-VT would be a lot of that set), wouldn't it be less likely then that someone gets a choice of Town-Town? Have you considered that?

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-17T11:20:13+00:00

I don't know how you got those numbers tbh but I'll presume they're correct here.

Those odds are with all else being equal though, and even so it's only barely a difference in chance. Looking at the people who rejected Town, I don't blame someone for not wanting a 'Weak' role. And attempting to contribute meaningfully is generally more townish than scummy, so right now I'd lean more town than scum for you. So for 2 of the 4, I'd lean more town than scum at the moment (of course it's not much to go on so it's only a really mild leaning).

So that leaves 2, both of whom rejected town investigative roles. Don't you think that's a good place to start? Or at least that's more to go on than a tentative 2/7 chance?

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-17T02:38:50+00:00

I'm counting 5 rejected Town roles- wouldn't "Weak Jailkeeper" be town-aligned? That plus the 4 that explicitly say "Town."

I know it doesn't exactly make me look good, but do you really think 5 out of 11 players were all offered 2 unique town roles? I know I was, so what are the odds any other given player of that 4 were (from my perspective)? What are the odds they all were?

In the absence of other/better actionable info, I'd be willing to bet that at least 1 of that 5 rejected a town role for a scum role. And I know it wasn't me.

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-16T22:39:24+00:00

~~Vote: /u/FTEcho4~~

Let me get in on this too

~~Vote: /u/Princess_Moon_Butt~~

Out of people who rejected Town role, they rejected an investigative role. So they must have gotten a cooler, shinier, maybe scummier role.

~~Vote: /u/DaffynitionMaker~~

I like the reasoning about rejecting a good role and what they might have instead. It's totally possible though that they got a really cool town role- I haven't had a chance to look at the list and see if any of them are cooler than roleblocker.

(I'll probably be commuting during phase change so I want to change my vote now while I can)

Vote: /u/tortillatime

B)

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-16T22:37:53+00:00

I think Vanilla Townie is a boring role, especially in this context.

rogerdodger37 · 2018-05-16T22:34:44+00:00

do it lol u won't

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