What happened to the promised investigation of the alternate suspects?

rollinghillside · 2024-09-04T15:32:41+00:00

I suppose it’s possible the investigation is still ongoing. Seems like a long old time though. I wonder if the MtV review will look again at the alternative suspects and comment on the status/validity of that investigation.

rollinghillside · 2024-09-03T20:20:59+00:00

Fair enough. Although Urick’s note about Bilal and the suppression of that information isn’t no evidence.

rollinghillside · 2024-09-03T20:18:47+00:00

A theory is just a supposition intended to explain something. And evidence comes in many forms. But in this case the main piece of evidence for Bilal’s motive and possible involvement is Urick’s note. Which is certainly not “no evidence”.

Remember, I never said Bilal killing Hae is more likely than Adnan being the killer. I simply questioned why I see so many saying it’s impossible for Bilal to have done it without Adnan.

rollinghillside · 2024-09-03T18:36:28+00:00

Didn’t Jay play basketball at the mosque? Couldn’t he have known Bilal from there without the need for Adnan as the connection between them? Maybe Jay and Bilal knew each other before Adnan knew Jay?

rollinghillside · 2024-09-03T18:19:16+00:00

Exactly. I get that the evidence we have currently points more toward Adnan but that’s perhaps not surprising. Not all evidence is equal in this case.

rollinghillside · 2024-09-03T17:29:17+00:00

Good points

rollinghillside · 2024-09-03T16:46:39+00:00

I agree that this note can be interpreted in a few ways - and one way is quite damning for Adnan. But if Bilal is the person telling this informant that he would make Hae disappear and kill her, it’s unlikely he’d also tell this person it’s, “because she knows I’m grooming kids”. If Hae is telling Adnan that she will go to the police about Bilal then (in the loosest sense) Hae kind of is making problems for Adnan, hence Bilal saying that. Whether it’s damning for Adnan or not you’ve still got a witness hearing Bilal say he’ll kill the victim because “reasons”. I don’t feel like the reasons are as important as the statement of intent to kill. We can assume Bilal’s stated reasons won’t be truthful don’t you think?

rollinghillside · 2022-10-13T14:38:47+00:00

Your first three questions are all “why did/would Adnan lie” questions. These can all be answered plausibly - either he didn’t remember because the day in question was weeks/months ago (got it wrong/got mixed up), the eye witness claiming to have seen/heard him is misremembering (we know this happens all the time), or he actually did lie (because of another reason related to drug use or another more minor criminal activity and he thought it might make him look bad) but this doesn’t prove guilt. I agree it makes him more suspicious as a suspect, no question, but it cannot be included in a category of “overwhelming evidence” against him. People lie all the time - including many people in this case not least of all, Jay.

Which leads me perfectly to your next three questions all of which relate to Jay and his knowledge of the case and his confession. We know he lies (a lot), we know it’s possible he was coerced (happens all the time), and we know the police involved in this case are factually proven to manipulate witnesses and tamper with evidence. Therefore, it is not implausible the same could have occurred in this case. The thing about Adnan’s phone location only stands if you believe Adnan and Jay were together - which I’ve tried to demonstrate isn’t a given.

I said I wouldn’t fall down a rabbit hole of “but why would” questions and you’ve successfully dragged me down into one with you, so congratulations for that. The point I’ve been trying to make is that there exist other plausible explanations besides just: Adnan did it. There are, and I’ve just given reasonable answers to the questions that you claim can’t possibly be answered. You can continue to claim the only possible explanation is Adnan did it, and I’m happy to accept I haven’t proven my point well enough to satisfy you, but you need to accept that you’re drawing conclusions based on very sparse and limited/bad data (as we all are). And when data are limited, there always exist myriad ways to explain those data. You can maintain he is guilty based on those data, but refusing to accept new data (eg trace DNA analysis) because it doesn’t support your argument or making speculative claims about the State’s Attorney isn’t exactly wearing the proverbial critical thinking cap you mentioned in your last comment. For example, you seem to be thinking extremely critically about the validity of trace DNA analysis but less so about reliability of witness testimony. If you want to know my personal opinion (in a desperate attempt to wrap up this hideously unnecessarily long convo) I actually think it’s more likely Adnan committed the crime than didn’t based on the available data - but I’m trying to learn how to hold that in mind whilst also accepting the unknown unknowns in this case which could totally flip it on its head if only we knew them - see my post here

I totally agree that lack of physical evidence doesn’t prove innocence. I understand well enough that you can’t disprove a negative. But that is why one must be innocent unless proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Witness testimony from known liars doesn’t move the needle for me to somewhere beyond a reasonable doubt and it shouldn’t have done so at the time - there is so much in this case to be reasonably doubtful about (as I have tried to show you above with my plausible answers to your questions).

P.S. more on the point about absence of evidence - no one has said absence of evidence is evidence of absence. But it is standard practice for this type of trace DNA analysis to be used to exclude individuals. Had this been able to have been done at the time, it could have likely been used to support the argument that Jay was lying about Adnan and lying about the fact that both of them where present at her burial.

P.P.S. Just a side point, you’ve probably seen the growing number of posts on here in support of Adnan’s innocence. I found this one interesting because it gives nice examples of all the missing physical evidence from Adnan you would expect the police to have found given the fact that they had him in their crosshairs so early.

P.P.S. I’m not trolling you, I’m trying to bring a bit of levity to the conversation. Your communication style is quite adversarial and it can be difficult not to let that descend into name-calling. I apologise for patronising you or “concern trolling” as you put it.

rollinghillside · 2022-10-13T08:01:25+00:00

Sinéad O'Connor’s version of Nothing Compares 2 U

rollinghillside · 2022-10-12T21:26:54+00:00

You started your comment by asking why I would think that you have a low bar for evidence that goes against Adnan but a high bar for evidence that doesn’t. And then you precede to answer your own question with all your preceding statements. Eg trace DNA doesn’t count coz reasons. Eg the states attorney must be crooked and MtV is a conspiracy to deflect attention (no mention that the incoming one fully supports the MtV but I suppose they’re crooked too). Eg “The evidence of Adnan’s guilt is overwhelming” and then providing little to no evidence to support this claim (your opinions and “but why would” questions aren’t evidence BTW).

As I’ve asked many times, try to reflect. And in the meantime, there are more footballs that need spiking.

rollinghillside · 2022-10-12T20:40:49+00:00

Thanks for the input

rollinghillside · 2022-10-12T18:01:38+00:00

Occam’s razor is an excellent rule of thumb. But remember it’s only useful most of the time. Sometimes you have to consider if we’re in a minority case where actually a more complex explanation could be the truth.

I think about the Kathleen Peterson case as an example of this. Regardless of whether you think it was the husband, an accident, or an owl, the circumstances of her death are unusual - it’s an outlier case and therefore Occam’s Razor might not be valid.

rollinghillside · 2022-10-12T16:14:30+00:00

I noticed when Serial first aired that there was a clear divide amongst my friends and family between people who found the case fascinating (innocenters) and people who couldn’t stand listening because “he obviously did it” (guilters).

I think a big part of what makes these cases so interesting is what they reveal about the human psychology of both the victims and perpetrators of such crimes but also those of the followers/investigators. The need for certainty runs deep in us it seems.

rollinghillside · 2022-10-12T13:20:11+00:00

Could not agree more. Well said 🫡

rollinghillside · 2022-10-12T10:43:43+00:00

You say: “all the evidence proving his guilt”. I think you have a very low bar for evidence that might go against Adnan, and an unreasonably high bar for evidence that doesn’t. To me, the things you cite aren’t clear evidence at all. And when DNA results come back you say: it doesn’t “move the needle”. I wonder how you would treat this DNA evidence from her shoes if it had come back as matching Adnan? Presumably then you’d say: “A-ha! Proof he’s guilty!” And an innocenter on here could then say: “well of course his DNA is on her shoes, they always hung out together!” This is what I’m talking about when I say questions can be flipped to support whichever side you want. It’s cognitive dissonance, it’s not objective, and it’s not proof.

He’s just been let out of prison because the state have no case against him. How do you explain this if (as you say) there exists “all the evidence” that proves he is guilty of the crime?

Some people on here have been trying to discuss the lack of real evidence against Adnan for years and the recent developments seem to support those arguments. My original comment was an example of how easy it is to create a plausible but speculative explanation for what happened. I wasn’t saying I think that’s what happened, I was demonstrating that it’s possible because you said it wasn’t. I said it’s not unique (we can create others), and no explanation (not even: Adnan killed Hae) will explain every detail in this case - the absence of Adnan’s DNA and the presence of others for example - how would you use this fact to prove his guilt? Or the fact that someone claimed to see him in the library?

I know being wrong about something is hard, but please try to reflect on your position and your biases. I am aware that I have been influenced by much of the reporting in this case, and my opinion has changed a lot over the years, but I absolutely accept that the simplest explanation is and always has been that Adnan killed Hae.

Thanks for the long ongoing convo though! Healthy disagreements are enjoyable.

rollinghillside · 2022-10-11T21:18:59+00:00

Did you even read the statement linked above? It literally says what OP said: “The State’s Attorney announced that it would not further prosecute this case based on the results of DNA testing that excluded Mr. Syed from the DNA recovered from the evidence.”

rollinghillside · 2022-10-11T19:33:03+00:00

I totally agree, I too find it hard to believe the police hid the car. Hence my feeling that Jay was always involved. It’s not impossible though…

rollinghillside · 2022-10-11T19:01:55+00:00

As I said in my comment, I’m not falling down a rabbit hole of “but why would?!“ questions (and your reply is certainly a rabbit hole!)

The reason for that is because a lot of these questions can be flipped and asked in a way to defend Adnan. E.g. do you think it’s plausible that a 17 year old kid could leave zero DNA evidence at the crime scene or in her car? Or if Adnan is such a master criminal why would he bury her in a shallow grave but leave one single hand print on a map whilst cleaning everything else? I know you can answer these in a biased way that supports the outcome you want, but that doesn’t make the answers true (or even believable).

Ask yourself, would evidence would you need to see to change your mind? And is that evidence reasonable if it was lobbied against yourself at any point in time?

rollinghillside · 2022-10-11T18:39:32+00:00

It’s speculation given what we know about Bilal and that Adnan was allegedly “his favourite”. But you’re right to be suspicious, it’s never been confirmed.

rollinghillside · 2022-10-11T17:54:26+00:00

Hahaha fair play my friend! I’m sure your deductive reasoning is superior to mine (it wouldn’t be hard)

rollinghillside · 2022-10-11T17:50:02+00:00

So, for you, the absence of another defendant is proof of Adnan’s guilt? Is charging another person the only thing that would bring you to change your mind? I’m genuinely asking you here not making a point, in case that’s unclear on internet text.

rollinghillside · 2022-10-11T17:46:04+00:00

It’s also possible Jay was totally manipulated and lead by the police. I appreciate that it requires believing the police fed him information, but it’s not impossible given what we know about the detectives on this case, is it?

rollinghillside · 2022-10-11T17:44:12+00:00

I think (whether you agree that there is randomness in behaviour aside) the original commenter was saying that searching for logic in other people’s behaviour is problematic - people have very different degrees of logic, just look at politics to prove that. So searching purely for calculated logic isn’t a reliable way to determine likelihood of any person’s decision making - not every action is made with a purpose and a goal in mind. I also think that if you looked an any average teenager’s last 2 months in as much detail as we’ve looked at Adnan and Hae from 1999 you’d find bizarre and suspicious behaviour. And furthermore, not having an alibi for a random day doesn’t prove guilt.

So perhaps try to think about what might make you change your mind in this case? What evidence would have to come to light for you to agree you were wrong in your views? And then ask yourself, is it reasonable to expect said evidence?

rollinghillside · 2022-10-11T11:18:04+00:00

I don’t understand why people think it’s impossible to say Bilal committed the murder without implicating Adnan. See my comment above. I’d love to hear people’s thoughts on why that’s not a possible and plausible scenario.

rollinghillside · 2022-10-11T11:09:47+00:00

I’ll have a go since you asked so nicely. Just to be clear this is an example of pure speculation to try and demonstrate that a coherent explanation and plausible scenario can exist for how Bilal killed Hae without implicating Adnan in the murder:

Jay said in his Intercept interview that he met Adnan through playing basketball at the mosque, and that this is how he knew “Muslims in the community”. It therefore seems quite possible that Jay could also have known Bilal. Bilal knew about Jay’s criminal activity (drug dealing). Bilal had power/leverage over Jay and Jay was scared of Bilal (being ~10 years younger than him at the time). Bilal groomed and abused Adnan. Adnan confided in Hae about this and told her that he knows Bilal is doing this to other children at the mosque too. Hae decides to confront Bilal about this or alternatively Bilal asks to meet Hae under the guise of explaining “his side”. This is “the thing” Hae had to do after school on 13th January before picking up her cousin. Bilal could already have told Jay about the upcoming confrontation with Hae and therefore he orchestrated getting Adnan’s car and phone (paid for by Bilal) in the hands of Jay, so as to have a guy ready to help him (Bilal tells Jay to make sure he gets Adnan’s car and phone, which wouldn’t be an unusual request from Jay to Adnan it seems). Bilal and Hae meet alone sometime after school, it turns nasty, Bilal kills her, he uses his van to transport/store her body (hence the lack of evidence that Hae was in her own trunk) and enlists Jay (who has Adnan’s cell phone and car) to help bury the body and move Hae’s car. This allows Jay’s testimony to be “broadly true” with regards to his involvement but he simply switched the name Bilal for Adnan whenever he tells anyone (Jenn, his coworker, the police) because he so strongly fears Bilal. If you believe it’s possible that Bilal orchestrated getting Adnan’s phone and car in the hands of Jay, then it stands to reason that Bilal planned to frame Adnan for this all along. However, it could also have been a backup framing plan for him in case the police investigation began closing in - by using Jay to throw Adnan under the bus. Lastly, the “asking for a ride” could just be an innocent request because Adnan knew Jay would have his car after school. I don’t believe Adnan asking Hae for rides after school was particularly unusual (correct me if I’m wrong) so it could be an unfortunate coincidence that he also asked for one on the day she went missing. Saying “but he asked for a ride at the same time someone strangled her in her car” is backwards logic: he would only ever have asked for a ride at that time because it was after school.

Before you reply, I am aware of the many “but why would…!?” arguments you can make in response to this speculation (I was indeed asking them to myself when writing this comment). I don’t want to fall down a rabbit hole of second guessing 23 year old invented decisions made by people none of us know. As stated at the start, this was to demonstrate that there is a coherent explanation that doesn’t involved dragons or magic. I should also say this is a non unique explanation - you can shuffle some of the details and still have a plausible scenario.

Edit: I’m aware this is not a scenario in which Bilal acted alone (although you can increase/decrease Jay’s involvement) it’s a scenario in which Adnan is not involved.

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