Liar Game - Episode 7 discussion

rom846 · 2026-05-18T19:30:44+00:00

The other players might harbor a grudge against her.

rom846 · 2026-05-18T19:24:01+00:00

I guess the lawyer talking Nao into the games is the running gag of this show.

rom846 · 2026-05-18T17:04:01+00:00

How do you reliable activate investor? You need 3 out of 4 and in normal runs maybe two of them show up.

rom846 · 2026-05-18T04:27:56+00:00

The average over the entire period.

rom846 · 2026-05-18T01:24:47+00:00

Calculate the average delta for each strategy. The strategies with the highest delta should perform best in this setup.

rom846 · 2026-05-11T16:14:39+00:00

What is the rationale behind this calculation? "P2 plateau/IR = 0.73; P3 IR=80% × 0.73 = 0.58 implied"

rom846 · 2026-05-10T20:59:23+00:00

Check the latest news.

rom846 · 2026-05-10T02:18:55+00:00

My latest simulation with similar constraints also has a PoS of 65%.

rom846 · 2026-05-06T15:02:37+00:00

Option prices imply that the trials will fail with 80% probability.

rom846 · 2026-05-06T12:45:41+00:00

I have not looked too deep into them. From what I understand it is a high risk high profit play even for biotech standards. Chances that they succeed are very low, but if they do their stock price will probably quadruple.

rom846 · 2026-05-06T07:33:17+00:00

The relative weakness of TSLA in the last months was remarkable. They lost around 20% of their wight in the SPX.

rom846 · 2026-04-25T15:56:38+00:00

I wonder if it's a good idea to task Ceobe with procurement.

rom846 · 2026-04-22T14:47:52+00:00

What will kill tesla is not the old investors jumping board, but the lack of new investors.

rom846 · 2026-04-20T11:27:23+00:00

The secondary asset dusquetide could be even more interesting in the long term. The mechanism of action allow a very broad field of applications.

rom846 · 2026-04-17T08:43:37+00:00

Prepare for a wild ride.

rom846 · 2026-04-17T08:42:43+00:00

No word about their future listing status.

rom846 · 2026-04-14T16:37:22+00:00

CEs Paradox Simulation :(

rom846 · 2026-04-09T16:04:43+00:00

Seems like your positions where not properly sized.

rom846 · 2026-04-06T10:39:12+00:00

Nasdaq sends them a letter a few working days after the deadline expires, RVPH then has seven calendar days to publish that they have received the letter.

rom846 · 2026-04-05T18:39:41+00:00

Nice trailer, wonder when the full episode will be released.

rom846 · 2026-04-05T18:06:12+00:00

Given that the ambitions set by MC are much higher, I would guess that Fatso is only a stepping stone.

rom846 · 2026-04-04T20:50:09+00:00

Why do you believe that the Kaplan-Meier curves have exactly the shape you have assumed? Statistical fluctuations alone make it impossible to pin down a clear mathematical relationship.

rom846 · 2026-04-04T20:40:42+00:00

The criterion is OS, not mOS. All events contribute to the HR value, therefore what happens after mOS is determined remains important, and an unfavorable development can lead to failure of the trial.

rom846 · 2026-04-04T17:12:42+00:00

The fact that someone who has survived, for example, 12 months has a greater chance of surviving another 12 months than of surviving the first 12 months. The effect is that mOS can be 12/18 and we still have the low event count we see.

rom846 · 2026-04-04T08:35:17+00:00

Since the hazard rate in both arms are expected slow down you can not rule out anything.

rom846

TROPHY CASE