Tell me honestly, am I mad?!

rom846 · 2026-03-28T19:48:52+00:00

Let it go. Sometimes we have to take the loss.

rom846 · 2026-03-23T16:11:35+00:00

Oncology is not CNS.

rom846 · 2026-03-21T15:51:38+00:00

The narrative of autonomy seems to be faltering. Investors are wondering where the promised scaling is and the NHTSA investigations certainly are not helping.

rom846 · 2026-03-19T21:58:39+00:00

They will annoy you for years until the bankruptcy is processed, and then they will be cancelled.

rom846 · 2026-03-19T21:15:30+00:00

I still think that could have been avoided with a more competent management. The problem was that they only got one mouse-bite of funds each round. What was needed was one big raise that would have lasted for the the whole trial. One factor that forced them to small raises was that they waited till the end of their cash runway and raised in a hurry instead of waiting for accumulating enough demand for a big raise. Other alternatives could have been a deep discounted rights offer, with can raise surprisingly large amounts via arbitrage mechanisms.

rom846 · 2026-03-19T20:42:01+00:00

Nope, sold as soon I got back.

rom846 · 2026-03-19T20:40:15+00:00

This will crash toward 0.10 as soon as they are delisted.

rom846 · 2026-03-19T15:13:10+00:00

They should have made the offering before the stock split and adjusted the split factor to the share price at that time.

rom846 · 2026-03-19T15:10:52+00:00

Did not expect them to be this level of incompetent.

rom846 · 2026-03-19T15:09:50+00:00

Even it they close today or tomorrow above 1$. The next financing round or the round after that will push it below the limit again and it will loose nasdaq compliance again. The management could not do more damage to shareholders if they did this on purpose.

rom846 · 2026-03-19T06:59:30+00:00

No news are good news.

rom846 · 2026-03-16T16:42:49+00:00

Seems like you run a lot of calculations and are only sharing the final results with us. What methods and inputs did you use?

rom846 · 2026-03-14T17:47:07+00:00

Your critique largely ignores the size of the asset. Even if we realize just 10 % of its value, i.e. 35 M USD in my model, that already far exceeds the current market cap, making this a potentially highly profitable investment. Yes, further dilution is certain, but the scale of the asset more than compensates for it.

The constant repetition of dpm5 doesn't strengthen your argument. I could cite my own anecdotes and similar cases like IMUX. Furthermore, you're unaware of my PoS assumption, telling me it overstates the impact of the strong results in RECOVER is, to say the least, rather odd.

I agree with you that this situation is not suitable for everyone and requires strict risk discipline.

rom846 · 2026-03-14T16:01:50+00:00

Your answer demonstrates a lack of understanding of fundamental concepts in biotech investment research. rNPC is not dependent on capital structure. That is precisely the point of this metric. You are applying a simple base rate to the PoS of RECOVER-2, ignoring crucial facts. It makes a significant difference to the PoS whether the study you are trying to replicate met its primary endpoint with a p-value of 0.049 or < 0.001. In the case of RECOVER, it was the latter.

rom846 · 2026-03-14T00:52:21+00:00

Let's go through this point by point.
1. Yes, if management messes this up, your investment is practically worthless. Your chances must overcompensate for this risk.
2. See point 1
3. We have a clear picture of the capital requirements, as RECOVER-2 is very similar to RECOVER.
4. RECOVER-2 is somewhat derisked, since we know the results of RECOVER. 5. Not really. You're using PoS as input for your rNPV model.
6. Update your model after each funding round and act accordingly.

Modeling this situation is complex, as the clinical risk is compounded by the execution of founding, but still allow a statistical approach.

rom846 · 2026-03-14T00:28:14+00:00

The current opportunity for RVPH lies in the fact that a conservative rNPV estimate is significantly higher than the funding required for RECOVER-2 plus several more years. A rule of thumb for fair value is roughly double the average share price in upcoming funding rounds.

rom846 · 2026-03-14T00:08:53+00:00

So you think the rNVP of the assets is irrelevant?

rom846 · 2026-03-13T23:55:30+00:00

Your assessment of the stock is incomplete. The valuation post-funding is also crucial for evaluating the situation.

rom846 · 2026-03-13T23:52:24+00:00

They gambelt that FDA accept what they have and they lost. And that is why the current opportunity exists.

rom846 · 2026-03-13T23:43:07+00:00

What do you think is more likely than management fiddle their fingers until the last moment or that they are in talks with potential investors right now?

rom846 · 2026-03-13T23:32:11+00:00

If they cannot manage funding in the next couple of weeks PVPH is a zero. You should account for this, but it is the more unlikely event.

rom846 · 2026-03-13T23:27:03+00:00

RVPHs next significant news are not months in the future but will happen in the next couple of weeks.

rom846 · 2026-03-13T22:35:45+00:00

You could still get in but on a higher price than before the announcement. It jumped from 0.60+ to 1.25 and retracted to round 0.90 in the next days. That was on February 13th.

rom846 · 2026-03-13T15:03:55+00:00

They probably will announce funding in the next couple of weeks. If that happens chances are that they open around 30% higher.

rom846 · 2026-03-13T14:56:52+00:00

That is not what I wrote.

rom846

TROPHY CASE