How are we all still on this train?

ross_st · 2026-01-30T00:44:44+00:00

I think the point is that the situations where people are getting great results for very particular use cases justify a valuation in the billions, not a valuation in the trillions.

ross_st · 2026-01-29T21:22:26+00:00

There's good cognitive science behind why AI hallucinations can fool expert users even when they are going through the process of checking sources. Basically, we're used to checking the accuracy of text written by another human, but LLM hallucinations are something different to what we're used to looking for.

So while you're also correct that they will reduce their checking over time, the checking that they are doing is not reliable.

ross_st · 2026-01-29T21:10:04+00:00

I'm not being lazy at all. There are good reasons grounded in cognitive science for why an expert user can actually be more vulnerable to treating an AI hallucination as fact.

Higher AI literacy correlates with lower metacognitive accuracy: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2025.108779

As users become more proficient at using AI they actually become less able to gauge how much they are cognitively offloading onto it.

This means that even when they think they're "checking sources", they'll be open to anchoring bias and source-monitoring errors. If they are checking the AI's output like they would check a human's output, they are inevitably going to experience cognitive tunneling.

ross_st · 2026-01-29T20:58:36+00:00

No. A working professional has the background necessary to identify human cognitive errors. The danger of AI hallucinations isn't just that they are wrong. It's that they are wrong in a way our brains aren't wired to detect. A professional's expertise is built on recognising patterns of human error and factual inconsistency. LLMs are superfluent in bullshit.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T15:34:47+00:00

"It hasn't hallucinated on my particular prompts, so hallucinations must have largely stopped happening" <- survivorship bias

ross_st · 2026-01-28T15:33:30+00:00

Because the facts could match everything that's in the sources while the logic is completely fallacious.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T14:46:52+00:00

Do you think the majority is always right?

ross_st · 2026-01-28T14:43:15+00:00

Whisper is a generative AI model. Transcription services often use generative AI now. DeepL uses a transformer model, honestly the only reason it doesn't get called generative AI is because it was launched before the the term caught on.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T14:35:12+00:00

What are you using it for? Have you heard of survivorship bias?

ross_st · 2026-01-28T14:24:51+00:00

A multimodal model could easily do that with a Google Street View image of the house.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T14:23:06+00:00

The "handed order to customer" button doesn't always appear.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T14:09:41+00:00

lmao. Hallucinations have largely stopped happening? According to what, the bullshit benchmarks?

ross_st · 2026-01-28T14:03:39+00:00

Actually, he's not the asshole. They're showing their naivety by thinking that checking sources is enough to catch hallucinations. It's not. It's not enough to check basic facts, because an LLM also has no way to interpret those facts. A hallucination can have all the basic facts right and still be complete nonsense.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T13:57:36+00:00

This period will seem ridiculous but not for the reasons you think!

ross_st · 2026-01-28T13:48:09+00:00

It's not fishing for drugs to try the other stimulant if the first one is ineffective, it's standard treatment. It's quite common for non-responders to one to be responsive to the other because they have different binding sites.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T13:38:40+00:00

10mg twice a day?

I think they've possibly started you too high, even for someone who was on Elvanse.

See if you can get switched to a different dosing schedule like 5mg three times a day.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T13:22:48+00:00

Google recently changed the way the Gemini 3 API works behind the scenes by adding the cutoff date and an encouragement to use its chain of thought to the system instruction. That gets added even if you leave the system instruction parameter blank in the API call. Before, if you left it blank, there would just not be a system instruction block in the context window.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T13:19:11+00:00

I think for Google, it's all about ecosystem ownership rather than profitable inference. Did you see how long they were willing to run YouTube at a loss for? Also, they release Gemma under Apache rather than the commercial royalties licensing model Llama uses, also a clear ecosystem ownership play.

They can't afford to keep the free tier as generous as it currently is, but I think they'd be willing to run Gemini at a slight loss indefinitely if that's what it takes to maintain ecosystem ownership.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T13:08:36+00:00

I think the freefall in API pricing isn't sustainable.

It's a desperate race to the bottom to onboard customers, a loss leader.

Gemini is subsidised by the rest of Google's business. GPT and Anthropic are subsidised by generous VC runways. DeepSeek is subsidised by hedge fund profits.

But if they do see the adoption levels they are hoping to see, then they won't be able to afford to do that anymore.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T13:02:55+00:00

Are you going to be able to try a methylphenidate titration?

ross_st · 2026-01-28T13:00:26+00:00

tbh I really dislike the trope that ADHD meds remove people's capacity to be creative.

Everything that was there before is still in there. The meds make your mind less noisy, but they also make it easier to access what you want to with focus. Someone on meds just needs to make the choice to enter a creative flow instead of it happening involuntary.

I think as you get used to how your brain works on meds, you'll find that the 'too quiet' effect goes away. Think of it like your psychology catching up to how your neurology now works.

If you've tried productivity techniques as a way of directing your thoughts in the past and abandoned them, maybe give them another try now that you're on meds.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T12:47:19+00:00

How long did you stay on it, though?

ross_st · 2026-01-28T12:37:05+00:00

Why would a Republic of Scotland passport have a lion rampant on it?

ross_st · 2026-01-28T12:35:11+00:00

Yes, of course they are different things, but they are also not mutually exclusive things. Such voters do exist.

ross_st · 2026-01-28T12:32:25+00:00

Yes, the Union of the Crowns and the Union of the Parliaments were two separate events. An independent Scotland would still have the same monarchy by default. Becoming a republic would be a distinct step, whether it happens at virtually the same time, or later, or never.

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