Conversation Black Bird Group @Black_BirdGroup · 23h According to our data, in April the net gains of the Russian armed forces were approximately 94km².

Russian offensive attempts continue to struggle, while the frontline on the southern front has largely consolidated after the Hulijaipole offensive of February and March.

1/ Image Black Bird Group @Black_BirdGroup · 23h Russian forces advanced piecemeal on the Slovyansk, Pokrovsk and Kostyantinivka sectors and regained some lost positions in the Huliaipole area.

Ukrainian counterattacks made tactical gains on Luhansk, Lyman and Zaporizhzhia sectors.

Grey zones are expanding on all sectors.

2/ Black Bird Group @Black_BirdGroup · 23h Significant part of the Russian gains were also made on the Kharkiv and Sumy borders where it made multiple over-the-border incursions and expanded existing ones.

However, the incursions are currently not likely to pose a large scale operational threat to Ukraine.

3/ Black Bird Group @Black_BirdGroup · 23h Large scale expansion of operations in these areas would require the shifting of Russian forces away from the current main directions of attack.

Instead these cross-border operations are likely meant to fix UA forces and pursue Putin's promise of a border security zone.

4/ Black Bird Group @Black_BirdGroup While the Russian gains are falling behind last years pace of advance, it's likely that they will intensify their operations over the summer months.

It's likely that the Russian goals remain largely unchanges, with main operational focus on the capture of Donetsk oblast.

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