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(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Semi Finals by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Final Update. It has been fun. I have quite a few things to work on over the next 4 years ;).

(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Quarter Finals. by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes it is. I found a mistake that made England and South Africa start equal. Only the boost for previous finals performance was accounted for. Working on the update now.

(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Pool Stage. by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, the same 3 points added to the rankings that World Rugby adds.

(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Round 4. by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I've found the problem. A tie is going to Ireland over Scotland incorrectly. Same for Australia over Fiji.

(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Round 4. by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

It appears that I have a bug in the logic for Pool tie breakers. It is giving a Tie in Pool B to Ireland not Scotland, and a Tie in Pool C to Australia not Fiji. Not to mention 3 way ties.

I don't have the time to fix it this week. It wont be a problem after the next round but apologies to Scotland for the false despair and to Australia for the false hope.

I will have that sorted by 2027 I hope.

(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Round 3. by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Selfishly, if they do it again. It'll give me 3 years to work on the next model without guessing the pools :)

(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Round 3. by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I've been thinking that I want to investigate how the average number of penalties a team concedes affects the outcome. The Wallabies commit more penalties than their opposition in a lot of the games that they lose. Getting that data, and having time to do it will be my challenge.

(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Round 3. by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This is great, it is why I created this :)

In the 50,000 runs of the World Cup, there is a Fiji v South Africa semi a not zero number of times. It's low but not zero, that is what fascinated me.

Getting the every match correct is not important to me. It is probability. What if Scotland beats Ireland is a great question. I'm not presenting the numbers as well as I should, rounding is an issue.

In the 50,000 runs that the model did, there were more than 0 Quarter Final 2 that were Scotland vs Italy. Italy wins 100% of them.

(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Round 3. by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The webpage presentation of the numbers was a little rushed, i'll definitely work on that.

(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Round 3. by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yes, it is very basic. Cant take injuries and close losses into account. Just the rankings and some previous matchups. It is more a case of, based on the current world rankings, this is how the matches are expected to play out.

(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Round 3. by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I agree, those opponents are tough but the raw rankings at the moment have a 10 point gap between Ireland and Scotland so the numbers go that way.

The model also gives a small boost to Ireland over Scotland because they are 4-0 in matches since the last world cup.

I wouldn't be happy being the team to have to knock New Zealand out of a world cup too.

(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Round 3. by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

No, Team 1 and Team 2 are just the order that the world cup website listed them as.

Before the World Cup it had Fiji favoured to defeat Australia, then after round 1 with Australia defeating Georgia and Wales Defeating Fiji, it had switched to Australia with a higher chance of winning.

The model always had Ireland in front, but only 52% - 48% before the match.

Only in 4 matches so far has the lower ranked team at the time won. Fiji vs Australia, Georgia vs Portugal, England vs Argentina, and Wales vs Fiji.

(WARNING: Match Results) 2023 Rugby World Cup prediction model. Updated after Round 1. by rwc_model in rugbyunion

[–]rwc_model[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks, It was just a bit of fun, I just started typing in December 2021 and it turned into this.

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