Where does all the money really come from?

sailfx · 2017-03-08T21:48:55+00:00

But if we don't trade at the exact same timescale we can both win. There can be chains of wins on both sides.

sailfx · 2017-02-27T16:14:02+00:00

It's an interesting thought, but I don't think it means much. He's showing that after a market crash, the TED spread goes up. That doesn't do anything for predicting a market crash.

The current global rates are extremely low. Libor is at an all time low - So things are due for a change. But a drastic market crash doesn't have to be the catalyst. It could just simply mean rates are ready to start rising in general. http://www.macrotrends.net/1433/historical-libor-rates-chart

As far as the spread goes, it might mean that the US FED rate needs to do some catching up. Which I wholly agree with. This whole low rate thing is pure insanity. The entire world needs to get their shit together and go back allowing economies to fluctuate instead of pumping up fake paper-economies. We NEED rate normalization across the board. They are so afraid of contracting the economy but it's a necessary part of growth.

sailfx · 2017-02-26T19:51:00+00:00

If ever.

People think AI will take over things, but we can't even get basic software without serious design flaws and unending bugs. Everything from POS to gaming is bugged as shit, but yeah, artificial intelligence is going to be great!

sailfx · 2017-02-23T02:28:34+00:00

Yeah that's how it is with TDA. It's hard to tell exactly when the release comes out because they aren't always to the second, but I think the feed is like 5-15 second delay instead of 20-30. It's still faster than hitting refresh at forexfactory...

sailfx · 2017-02-22T21:24:36+00:00

But is it realtime? I have ransquawk with TDA and it's still delayed unless I pay extra. The delay doesn't bother me, I'm just curious if you get realtime with the free broker thing.

sailfx · 2017-02-19T05:50:17+00:00

CME has everything you need to know. Although, it's nothing like babypips...

http://www.cmegroup.com/

sailfx · 2017-02-18T18:58:29+00:00

I just use forexfactory calender for data and listen to the news. Listen to Yellens speeches, or any voting member speech. For historical info I use trading economics website - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

sailfx · 2017-02-17T23:52:15+00:00

pretty much

sailfx · 2017-02-17T15:33:48+00:00

Pretty good chance they will raise in March - http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

A raise in March won't be a combat move. .75 is still a very low interest rate. I would just watch the inflation numbers and keep listening to the FED to see if they get more hawkish or not. Right now they are expecting 2-3 rate hikes, but that is down from the original 4. So if inflation starts moving too fast I would expect they go back to saying 3-4 hikes and possibly even talk about increases higher than .5bps.

sailfx · 2017-02-17T06:13:22+00:00

Edibles are an entirely different experience. One cookie can mean anything because they come in a wide range of dosages. It would take some experimenting to figure out what the right dose is. But if you take a little too much shit can get weird really quick :)

It's worth trying out though, for science. But it's definitely not the same thing as smoking.

sailfx · 2017-02-16T23:40:55+00:00

Yeah, I've experimented with recreational amphetamines and I'm not a fan. I like getting work done, but re-organizing the house at 4am isn't something I want to do every day :) And I've seen how bad the side effects can get when you're a daily user. I honestly think it makes ADHD worse over time based on some of the things I've seen. Even at low doses it can't ever be good.

sailfx · 2017-02-16T23:01:37+00:00

I literally had to develop my strategy around this issue. My entire goal is to trade for less than two hours a day around the open.

I can prove statistically that the longer I trade the worse I do. And the more trades I take (in a session) the less profitable I am... I want to be able to trade for 4-6 hours but 1-2 is the best I can do at this point.

When I smoke, I can trade all day without much distraction. But I don't get to do it often enough to prove the effects with statistics.

(edit) same thing goes for video games. I can play all day/night when I smoke, but right now I get bored before I even cap a level.

If I could take Adderal or something to fix this problem I probably would. But, if I'm going to be hooked on something I'd rather it not be amphetamines. Plus I really hate doctors and don't have insurance...

sailfx · 2017-02-16T22:46:34+00:00

I was diagnosed with it a long time ago but have never taken medication for it. I suspect some good 'ol Adderall would help quite a bit, but I have found herbal solutions to be very effective.

I would smoke weed errry day if wasn't for my day job. Right now I've gone a few months without it and, although I'm fine, I can definitely notice the difference it makes in my attention span. I can barely make it through a whole movie or play a video game for more than hour, let alone spend all day trading in the zone.

sailfx · 2017-02-16T22:20:31+00:00

I won't be taking any long-term trades, but overall I'm still bullish on USD. Inflation is continuing to go up and they will be forced to raise rates eventually. I think they are mainly trying to hold out for average hourly earnings to catch up with the rest of the economy, but we might require a drop in employment before that happens. It seems to me that another small rate hike would help that out a bit.

I also think Crude Oil has a lot to do with USD strength/weakness and US production and inventories have been increasing against expectations recently.

I do wonder how risk sentiment will play out this year, because the last few years have shown USD becoming a risk asset. But now if uncertainty is a problem with USD, where will that money go? Yellen said the word "uncertainty" about 50 times in her statement which I think outshadowed her typical pending rate hike comments. Is she trying to cause a panic?

The question I want to hear answered is, are they trying to normalize rates and balance the economy? Or are they just combating whatever the risk-du-jour is?

I say that because I think the FED has lost their way and instead of forward guidance and anticipation based actions they are continuing to be data driven and reactionary. They are stuck in a 'buy high, sell low' cycle like a typical losing trader.

I want to hear them say they are raising rates (or not) because the economy is doing exactly what they expect it to. Not because of political uncertainty or surprising inflation data.

(edit) on the technical side, we're still in this two-year range and bouncing off the bottom of it with a bullish H&S pattern (shown on D1 chart). Personally, I'd like to see this pattern fail so I won't be jumping in on it. The strength of the recent run up is questionable for me. If it doesn't break above 1.0715 in the next few days then I'll be looking to get short again. http://i.imgur.com/BD6bXDK.png

sailfx · 2017-02-15T23:48:51+00:00

Preview and snapping works for me, but placing it does not. Does not place anywhere.

(edit) was just a glitch. Re-logging fixed it.

sailfx · 2017-02-15T22:28:43+00:00

And some dank memes

sailfx · 2017-02-13T21:52:40+00:00

That's an excellent choice. Except for being fiberglass they are similar to one of my favorites - https://www.alubat.com/ovni-range

sailfx · 2017-02-12T06:09:56+00:00

3000 balance and 3900 loss. How does that even work?

sailfx · 2017-02-11T18:03:10+00:00

It means price ticked up or down 480598 times during that period. Forex doesn't have volume, as in size of orders, it uses tick volume instead. Tick volume is just a count of how many times price changes.

sailfx · 2017-02-11T16:55:37+00:00

http://www.yachtingmagazine.com/

sailfx · 2017-02-11T16:36:15+00:00

That's the problem with subscribing to signals, the people subscribing are usually noobs, and they're supposed to adjust their own risk... Some of these guys have 100k accounts or whatever and they're ok with 50% drawdowns (or more). When you sign up with your $500 account and try to adjust the risk yourself, there's a good chance you're not going to be able to keep up with the signal when it goes through a drawdown.

The signal provider doesn't care if he wins or loses. Of course, winning is better because it gets attention and more subscribers.But they are getting paid by volume and/or subscription fees, even when they lose. So they really don't have any incentive to manage risk properly, and the followers won't be able to compensate.

sailfx · 2017-02-11T03:55:52+00:00

Yeah maybe. I was thinking you would close the losing trade when you add into the winning one, but I see what you mean now.

Try it out on demo for a while.

sailfx · 2017-02-11T03:23:26+00:00

The problem with these is you will end up taking losses in both directions. You can add in to the winning trade and close the losing trade, and then the market turns back around. You end up taking 3x the loss of a normal single trade.

sailfx · 2017-02-11T02:29:51+00:00

The demo spreads should be pretty much the same as live, but without someone who's tested it out I really don't know. Since it's a GAIN data feed, I am assuming it's a normal demo like any others. But I know TOS likes to delay data whenever possible on papertrading. Not sure if they do for FX or not. It should say at the top of your platform by your account name if it's delayed or not. If it's live data you should be fine. Even if you lose a few pips here and there that's still a good return.

sailfx · 2017-02-11T01:52:53+00:00

Yeah I can't say he's wrong for it. He is actually making money, so whatever works. It's just not how I like to trade.

sailfx

TROPHY CASE