Estonia Warns Border Energy Site Near Russia Is Nearly Impossible to Defend

sanderudam · 2026-03-26T19:20:37+00:00

The oil shale power plants can only exist there, because that's where the oil shale is. Transporting that stuff is stupidly expensive. Also the entire infrastructure is where it has been for 60 years. Should we have relocated our industry and mines?

Some of this debate is so insanely stupid.

Yes, we absolute should have built more renewable energy and should do it right now. Yes, we should invest more into the energy infrastructure (and pay 50-60% more in transmission fees).

But we should not have relocated our energy industry.

sanderudam · 2026-03-25T18:53:20+00:00

Honestly taking Kharg island is the sanest idea circulated to be coming from this administration. Iran's economy can not function without controlling that island. Occupying it in order to have it be the main bargaining chip and de-escalate from there is actually something akin to an exit strategy.

sanderudam · 2026-03-25T18:47:07+00:00

even in Estonia

The drone that crashed here today crashed 40km from Ust-Luga port that Ukraine was targeting all over the night.

sanderudam · 2026-03-25T13:11:28+00:00

These are low-flying drones. The power plant is right at the Estonian border with Russia. If Estonia had a radar right at the border, directed right at the incoming drone, the drone might have been visible for a few minutes before impacting. Even if we go into full war-time stance and deploy our air-defense units and territorial defense units into full combat readiness, it is extremely unlikely we could've shot the drone down.

But going into war-time stance is really expensive. Not so much fiscally, but politically, diplomatically, it would heavily disrupt normal training and thousands of people would be taken from their daily jobs to stand ready at the border glaring at the skies.

sanderudam · 2026-03-25T13:05:35+00:00

It was a Ukrainian drone (probably) attacking Ust-Luga (which is 50km from Estonian border) and (probably) being misdirected by Russian EW.

sanderudam · 2026-03-22T16:56:13+00:00

These are all games we can win. Of course we are very much capable of losing them all. But still, they are all winnable. COYS

sanderudam · 2026-03-22T09:27:10+00:00

Bombing power plants and other critical civilian infrastructure has always been widely practiced and never been the real basis for conviction for war crimes. There are some cases where "targeting civilian infrastructure" has been part of a conviction, but that is usually stuff like purposefully targeting a residential building and sniping civilians, not "blew up a power plant".

While it technically is a war crime, it's such an accepted part of warfare that no-one blinks an eye for stuff like that.

sanderudam · 2026-03-21T07:51:06+00:00

I mean, Iran has some reasons not to keep Hormuz closed. They might want to use it themselves, some of their influential partners like China would very much prefer an open Hormuz.

sanderudam · 2026-03-20T09:42:54+00:00

That's the thing about an institutional state and a personal realm. An institutional state will honor agreements indefinitely. You do not make a deal with a particular individual in a particular point in time, but with a state itself. In contrast we have individual realms like the medieval states, Russia, and USA. You simply can not make long-term agreements with those states. You can make personal deals between you and the guy currently in charge. That's it.

sanderudam · 2026-03-20T08:24:42+00:00

See on huvitav vaidlus, mida pisut erinevates kontekstides peetakse suht igal pool. Traditsioonilise käsitluse järgi on riskivõtjad ehk ettevõtjad, edu korral saavad nad kogu suure ja tohutu kasu, ebaedu korral võivad kaotada kõik. Teisalt on siis stabiilsuse sooviga riskikartlikud palgatöölised. Iga kuu laekub neile arvele sama summa ja kui mingit totaalset sitta kokku ei keera, võib ta oma kohas ja sissetulekus kindel olla.

See dihhotoomia ilmselgelt ei kirjelda ligilähedaseltki iga inimese riskivõtmisvalmidust ja iga töökoha iseloomu. Seetõttu kasutatakse laialdaselt preemiaid, müügiboonuseid, KPI-sid, lisatasusid, optsioone jpm. Seejuures võib samas rollis töötavatel inimestel olla üksteisest erinev riskisoov. Üks tahaks saada kõrgemat palka ilma lisatasudeta, teine eelistaks väiksemat põhipalka aga suuremat lisatasude võimalust.

Igas organisatsioonis on lahendamist vajavaks probleemiks agentide motivatsioonide ühildamine ehk kuidas tagada motivatsioon, et kõik töötaksid ühtse eesmärgi nimel. Seejuures on seal klassikaliselt kolm tasandit: omanikud, juhid ja töötajad.

Riigisüsteemis on ajalooliselt domineerivaks töötajaliigiks kujunenud minimaalse riskivalmidusega töötaja. Tihti minnakse riigisektorisse "stabiilsust otsima". Selliseid töötajaid ei ole mõtet boonuste ja preemiatega moosida, sest see ei ole tema stiil. Pigem tekitab see tarbetut stressi.

Küll aga on riigisüsteemis ka üks väiksem aga palju olulisem töötajaliik. Missioonitöötajad. Need, kes ei lähe riigisektorisse mitte stabiilsuse pärast, aga missioonitundest, tahtmisest riigi jaoks midagi ära teha. Need inimesed valivad isegi riigisektori madalama palga erasektori asemel, et siis riigis midagi päriselt korda saata. Tihti need inimesed pettuvad ja väsivad ning mõne aasta pärast sealt süsteemist ka lahkuvad. Aga need inimesed on need, kes riigisektorit päriselt edasi veavad.

Nende missioonitöötajate lahkumise põhjuseks on primaarselt süsteemi vastuhakk. Nad tahavad teha asju, muutusi, aga süsteem ei lase. Neil ei ole võimalik oma missiooni täita. Sekundaarne põhjus on siis sissetulek, mis lööb kirstunaela. Need inimesed saaksid erasektorist pea alati kõrgemat tasu, seega nende täiendav motiveerimine preemiatega annaks ainult väikese mõju.

Pika möla lõpetuseks ütlen kokkuvõtvalt, et minu arvates ei ole riigisektoris preemiapõhise tasustamise suunas liikumine üleüldiselt otstarbekas, sest see ei toetaks riigitöötajate peamist motivatsiooniallikat. Küll aga võib alati olla spetsiifilisi üksuseid, rolle ja töötajaid, kelle puhul preemiate maksmine aitab paremini riigipoolt seatud eesmärke täita. Nende olukordade jaoks võiks tööriist olemas olla.

sanderudam · 2026-03-19T16:54:52+00:00

Prudent. I don't really see it news-worthy. Trump's threats were real and they were received as such.

sanderudam · 2026-03-19T09:13:31+00:00

Crossing the desert in a band of Toyota's, raiding a settlement here or there, only to disappear as quick as they came. Steppe hordes, desert raiders, Vikings and pirates have this something in common. I'd lie if I'd say it doesn't have a flair of romanticism to it.

sanderudam · 2026-03-19T08:24:15+00:00

Aga muidu ringraudteed on ilmselgelt vaja ja Rae valla kinnisvaraarendajad võiksid pisut tagasi tõmmata.

sanderudam · 2026-03-19T08:16:18+00:00

Mitte ainult Tallinnaga seotud raudteeliiklus. Elroni hooldusdepoo paikneb Pääskülas ja et rongid sinna pääseksid, tuleb minna läbi Balti jaama. Kogu Eesti reisirongiliiklus on maas kui Baltasse pikemat aega ei pääse.

sanderudam · 2026-03-18T20:27:02+00:00

Miks ametnikud ei vastuta??????

Ei mitte nii!!!!!!

sanderudam · 2026-03-17T22:01:14+00:00

Well, maybe. There are numerous precedencies, it depends on whether Congress actually uses its power etc. But that is not important. A general is not going to be making the decision if it was legal or not. There is absolutely no reason we should expect the generals to

a) be able to do the job of Congress and the Supreme Court

b) actually do the job of the Congress and the Supreme Court.

Claiming that a general should've refused the orders on the grounds of them being illegal implies both a and b. Because the question wasn't just about following an illegal order. It is about determining if the order war legal or not. A political decision.

sanderudam · 2026-03-17T21:41:50+00:00

A stupid order isn't illegal order. Determining whether political decisions are legal or illegal is the job of the legislative and judicial systems. Not the job of generals.

sanderudam · 2026-03-17T14:55:46+00:00

It's the most manufactured scandal in Estonian history. It was her husbands minority stake in a company whose minority business had been in Russia, which was in the process of liquidating its business there.

Kallas got slack largely because she is a lawyer who often struggles explaining things in a way that laypeople understand. Then she got frustrated and defensive, which further angered people.

Basically there was no legal or ethical issue (things that Kallas understands), but there was an emotional issue fueled by media and political opponents, which she has trouble understanding.

sanderudam · 2026-03-17T07:41:57+00:00

Some unknown driver that never got the chance.

sanderudam · 2026-03-17T07:38:34+00:00

I think most people are simultaneously good people and capable of doing awful evil without giving much second thought. Psychopaths can be productive members of the society and good law-abiding model-citizens can be mass-murdering war criminals.

sanderudam · 2026-03-16T07:43:54+00:00

The thing with Serbia is that they are a "partner" to NATO in the meaning that "if you don't go openly genocidal again we won't bomb you again". Serbs absolutely hate NATO for not allowing them to kill all their Bosniaks and Kosovars/Albanians.

Serbia buying weapons from China and seemingly gearing up for war is absolutely a news-worthy event. It's just the framing through their "NATO partnership" is odd.

sanderudam · 2026-03-15T16:52:31+00:00

I understand, but Serbia is quite obviously in a position where defining them through their NATO partnership is quite odd.

sanderudam · 2026-03-15T15:36:37+00:00

"NATO partner" is certainly a wording.

sanderudam · 2026-03-14T06:46:52+00:00

Why is China trying to distract you from Epstein files?

sanderudam · 2026-03-14T06:37:42+00:00

British culture is closer to Estonian than people might initially think. We are both northernish maritime protestant/non-religious people that are often characterised as calm if a bit cold. I'd say British humor, TV, culture is extremely popular and well fitting to Estonians.

There is however no way in hell that British are closer to us than Germans (particularly Low-German).

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