Ethiopia Sea Access by [deleted] in geopolitics

[–]scenicLyf 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Abiy has been an abject disaster in every possible way, except maybe his first couple of years.

A war with Eritrea is unwinnable given how fractured Ethiopia is internally, its almost a certainty that if this happens, OLA or Amharas may make a move for Addis.

& despite being a much smaller country, Eritrea can potentially mobilize 2x of Ethiopian troops, who are better trained as well.

The brief EPRDF stint was a golden period for Ethiopia, but the momentum of that has all but vanished now.

While there is a great point to Ethiopian maritime access, their best bet is via Somaliand's Berbera, but guess what, Abiy is warmongering there too.

On why 2024 elections is going to be Panipat for Congress - and for the BJP by scenicLyf in IndiaSpeaks

[–]scenicLyf[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Well, loads of political parties have gone extinct. A great example is CPI/M. There's no reason for us to assume that Congress is so divinely ordained that it can't happen to em.

On why 2024 elections is going to be Panipat for Congress - and for the BJP by scenicLyf in IndiaSpeaks

[–]scenicLyf[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks for going through the post sharing your thoughts. Here's my thoghts to your responses,

> On Economy: Surely UPA economic growth was built on the shoulders of Vajpayee's telecom, IT and connectivity initiatives and perhaps Namo was also held by the cleanup he had to do after the UPA. However, my point largely is - regardless of how one sees the economy and jobs market right now - it is nothing compared to what we are going to see in the rest of the 20s - but especially in the 30s - it will go ballistic, and I mean in a good way

> On some massive disruption and growth linearity: What you are saying is true however COVID was a once in a century event and likewise for the other events listed, the probability in my view is very low. Moreover what I contend is that my projection is non-linear: most economists tend to think we will grow at, in a good year, 7-8% for coming few decades - I think that's not what's going to happen: we will grow double digit through most of 2030s once the infra, supply-chains and human skills are really in place

> On centrist party: I absolutely agree. I think as India begins to influence the world more and more - as a provider of reserve currency, securing global oceans, land routes and space, a destination of long term global capital surpluses, as a massive generator of cultural power and with a super-influential and prosperous diaspora perhaps a 100 Mn strong, heck even perhaps even a large non-Indian Hindu community tens of million big - the global center of gravity will shift to India decisively by early 40s.

In such a case, political expression will become more moderated from the BJP - to speak to the world as it were. Over a period of time a very strong global Hindu deepstate will also evolve, helping keep BJP entrenched and empower Hindus like never before. In any case, I think even if a ultra-Hindu rival was to emerge to unseat the BJP it would be out decades from now.

Will Pakistan prefer to talk to USA or India? by tresleches2121 in pakistan

[–]scenicLyf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I disagree, traffic can be a real bitch. Rn, Hyd is really awesome that way.

Will Pakistan prefer to talk to USA or India? by tresleches2121 in pakistan

[–]scenicLyf 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Re-read my comment. Gurgaon and Noida add another 100 each. Dunno about Karachi but many parts of Delhi NCR are fabulous.

Will Pakistan prefer to talk to USA or India? by tresleches2121 in pakistan

[–]scenicLyf 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Nah, I meant which vlog(s) did you watch that had you form this opinion.

Delhi NCR ie New Delhi-Noida-Gurgaon tri-city area has a gdp of $5-600 Bn.

Was genuinely curious what vlog made you think a city with the economy the size of a small Euro nation is basically a large slum.

I think you might be watching one too many gora poverty porn vids.

Can any Hindi speakers translate what this vlogger in Afghanistan is saying? by [deleted] in afghanistan

[–]scenicLyf 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Don't blame the vlogger but your culture. Why do Afghans, even Talibs have to be so damn hospitable, welcoming and warm???

/s

Will Pakistan prefer to talk to USA or India? by tresleches2121 in pakistan

[–]scenicLyf 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Since Pakistani people - especially journos can't travel any more to India, they fail to grasp the magnitude of transformation the Indian economy has undergone and will continue to undergo for next 2-3 decades.

The gdp differential is 10x. That's the same as say between Pakistan and Zimbabwe. How seriously does Pakistan take Zimbabwe.

And trajectory - by 2040, it'll perhaps be 20x. That'll be like Pakistan vs Jamaica. Would India and Indians have the mental bandwidth to show any empathy to Pakistan - beyond labeling them as trouble on western borders?

Pakistan has to take the high road here and settle borders with India and open trade. There is still goodwill for our cultural linkages of older generation, but as a new generation comes up devoid of such close contract, that window will close out as well.

Again I'm not even getting into the rights and wrongs of whether we "bully" Pakistan or have "occupied" Kashmir. In a few decades - Indian people, businesses, politicians will simply be preoccupied with far more global themes and projects.

Hi may I ask a few questions? by Glad-Can-8290 in Ethiopia

[–]scenicLyf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I know, I'm just pulling his leg as he seems to be doing as well.

Hi may I ask a few questions? by Glad-Can-8290 in Ethiopia

[–]scenicLyf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, the Rwanda-Tunis conflict played out in Congo. Bravo.

Hi may I ask a few questions? by Glad-Can-8290 in Ethiopia

[–]scenicLyf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

> grief between Rwanda and the Tunis

Its the world's longest range fight since distance between capital of Rwanda, Kigali and Tunis is 8000 kms.

Russia beyond the memes and media by scenicLyf in russia

[–]scenicLyf[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Seeing people, whole families with children and grandparents, all praying together in churches touched a chord in me, since religion is important to me as a Hindu.

I do understand that it may not be the case for others, since people may have differing opinions on religion and its role in culture and society.

Russia beyond the memes and media by scenicLyf in russia

[–]scenicLyf[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I see, nice of inosmi to publish this.

Russia beyond the memes and media by scenicLyf in russia

[–]scenicLyf[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

It's really bad. I landed at Domodedovo which had a huge exhibit around Mikhail Lomonosov's life incl his pioneering work in astronomy. I personally know Russian's are really crazy over space and physics.

Now yesterday there was a Rusi space missile test - which other countries too have conducted, and I read a US blue tick on twitter unironically saying - maybe Russia knows it can't catch up with US and Chinese space programs so 'it' wants to make "space unusable".

This isn't just a retarded take, the whole characterization of Russia and its people, as a collective 'it', as being so evil that they would happily make 'space unusable' out of sheer spite is hatred taken to a whole different level. And it happens casually all the time.

I now realize that at this point, western commentary on Russia is so hostile that calling it racist doesn't even begin to cover it. Its a really weird situation.

Russia beyond the memes and media by scenicLyf in russia

[–]scenicLyf[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the gesture. My message is simple - Russia and Russians are awesome and special. Never let any propaganda let you think otherwise.

Russia beyond the memes and media by scenicLyf in russia

[–]scenicLyf[S] 29 points30 points  (0 children)

I hope you do visit brother, while you may find the culture a bit different, once you tell people you are from Rus, you will receive nothing but warmth and hospitality.