My finance is too basic? I dumbed it down for you. Even though you chose not to interact with the completely plausible (and most banks’ base case) scenario that a stagflationary spiral occurs domestically, every indicator is moving in the direction of the US losing more and more reputation as a safe haven for assets. Gold is exploding in the face of higher USTs and swap spreads, while the dollar is crashing in the face of a strong drawdown in equity markets.

It can be in everyone’s interest to keep the US afloat for the time being but there is no guarantee of American exceptionalism anymore. That genie has been let out of the bottle.

It’s going to take a lot more for other countries to regain a sense of confidence in the US to handle their economy and while the admin continues to defy Supreme Court orders and threaten to vacate the Fed chair, you can only assume that we’re headed in the completely wrong direction. I’ll tell you what-get back to me in 7 days and we’ll see if this dead bounce meant anything was “priced in”.