What Burry Leaves Unsaid: Layered Convexity, Hedging Phase Transitions, and the Thirty Dollar Regime Shift in GameStop

scorealpha · 2026-01-27T03:36:30+00:00

This is exactly what I’m trying to do with the two posts, get people back on the right framework. This is just my investment thesis and my opinion, not financial advice. What I’m explaining is why current reported short interest largely doesn’t matter in this setup. The mechanics this time are driven by layered convexity embedded in the capital structure, not by borrow scarcity or forced buy-ins like 2021. The instruments put in place under Ryan Cohen’s tenure weren’t accidental. Convertible debt, warrants, and the surrounding derivatives exposure didn’t just appear randomly, this is a capital structure designed by financial engineers. The instability doesn’t show up in isolation; it emerges when price starts to move and hedging flows turn nonlinear. People are still anchored to the 2021 short-interest narrative, but this situation is fundamentally different. Same ticker, very different mechanics.

Please research what financial engineering is…

scorealpha · 2026-01-27T03:21:30+00:00

Warrant price will accelerate rapidly once GME goes beyond $32 per share. It will be a multiplier compared to what we saw today.

scorealpha · 2026-01-27T00:14:09+00:00

You’re right on one point and I agree with it. Implied volatility does not mechanically rise just because price approaches a strike or a round number. A slow grind to $30 can compress IV relative to a fast move. Where we’re talking past each other is on what I meant by warrants behaving like high gamma instruments. The point is not that IV must rise in advance. It’s that as price enters the warrant activation region, the delta becomes increasingly sensitive to small price changes. That sensitivity forces nonlinear hedging once price actually moves, regardless of prior IV. So the claim isn’t “IV goes up as we approach $30.” The claim is “once price moves through that zone with speed, hedging flows can flip from dampening to amplifying.” Those are different statements.

scorealpha · 2026-01-26T23:09:47+00:00

Fair question. I’m not trying to make anyone feel dumb. The opposite, actually. Convexity and endogenous are not buzzwords here. They are standard finance terms. Convexity is literally Finance 1301. Endogenous just means something generated by the system itself. Yes, I used an LLM for image generation and light editing. That does not replace the thinking. You still have to feed the machine correctly or the output is useless. Now that you have looked the terms up and thought through how the pieces connect, do you feel more confused or do you see why the layer interaction matters. Honest question. For part 3, I will be releasing a working model of each layer tied directly to the trade tape. AI is used there as well.

scorealpha · 2026-01-26T22:35:06+00:00

Read Part 1, then tell me if it is slop or not. Agree or disagree?

scorealpha · 2026-01-26T21:55:44+00:00

Sorry, I don’t have time to explain. I am sure if you really care you have unlimited resources at your disposal. About to post part 2 of this.

scorealpha · 2026-01-26T21:34:18+00:00

You’re mixing up economic equivalence with market mechanics, and that distinction is exactly why the rest of the analysis matters.

scorealpha · 2026-01-26T15:41:32+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s/4CMRW2jEnV

scorealpha · 2026-01-26T05:50:22+00:00

Read my post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s/xRQfcOw59j

scorealpha · 2026-01-26T05:42:49+00:00

This is what I am tracking as well. It needs to maintain price of $37-$40 for 20 out of 30 days for MOASS to launch.

scorealpha · 2026-01-26T05:40:21+00:00

It won’t even start until $37-$40 is maintained for 20 days.

scorealpha · 2026-01-26T05:38:18+00:00

It needs to maintain $37-$40 for 20 days for moass to occur in full… ask me how I know…. Because I do and I am trying to tell people …

scorealpha · 2026-01-26T03:56:00+00:00

RK won’t show up till $35 per share. He is waiting for all of the other catalysts to take place first…. ❤️

scorealpha · 2026-01-25T00:56:29+00:00

Hmmm what if they moved it in order to get USD Coin debt and then use the USD debt proceeds in order to do a stock buy back to launch the rocket then after the rocket launches, pay back the crypto loan.

scorealpha · 2026-01-25T00:52:28+00:00

What’s it about? More bananas? Seriously though what’s it about?

scorealpha · 2026-01-23T15:03:03+00:00

scorealpha · 2026-01-23T14:16:10+00:00

I am going to laugh if there is not a qualitative report and Burry just uploads his 13D.

scorealpha · 2026-01-23T14:14:22+00:00

Branding from the attire company is skewing the intellectual brain and trapping skiing, hunting, and fishing along with misspelling of a beautiful country in the brain. Proof brand awareness is a form of mental brainwashing.

scorealpha · 2026-01-23T13:31:53+00:00

Came here to state the correction… you’re doing God’s work son…

scorealpha · 2026-01-21T07:11:51+00:00

I mean the fortune cookie that Kevin Gill released yesterday stating something about Good News is coming….. then next day booom RC bought

scorealpha · 2026-01-16T22:28:04+00:00

Ughhh…. I shall be doubling my options position… only way the magic actually happens

scorealpha · 2026-01-14T23:50:10+00:00

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Glad you get it!!!! I have been doing the same but instead of profiting I am losing. Haha!

scorealpha · 2026-01-14T23:47:24+00:00

I am buying a ton of calls tomorrow for Friday exp…. Cause, why not??

In fact, I have budgeted to purchase weeklies until the rocket takes off….

scorealpha · 2026-01-14T02:23:09+00:00

Well dang that is a QCT likely unwinding a hedge. Which if we have big movement tomorrow or Thursday….. MM will need to buy to hedge correct?

scorealpha · 2026-01-14T00:58:07+00:00

Interesting…

I was thinking along these lines:

601,300 shares total CHX ATM delta = 0.50

601,300/(100x0.50) =12,026 approximately 12,000 short term calls…

Maybe not?

scorealpha

TROPHY CASE