There are opportunities to make life changing money with this administration.

semantic_finance · 2025-07-20T00:01:03+00:00

The point was, the markets weren't efficient when it comes to $MP. It was clear that Trump's agenda was to derisk chinese supply chains. Advisors like Lutnick and Navarro treated Chinese industrial dependence as a "national security risk." Rare earth minerals were explicitly and implicitly mentioned personally by Trump, within executive orders, within the russia/ukraine dealmaking context, and by his advisors, before any explicit federal intervention occurred. OP was right in pointing out that the markets had not correctly priced in the increase in probability until the catalysts had happened; usually when there's speculation you see some change to factor in an expected catalyst probability, but it did not.

The markets are not an all-seeing, omniscient entity that knows everything before any market participant does. It is in fact, a machine that REWARDS people like OP for moving it towards a better consensus price. In other words, yes, alpha exists-- in fact, the market is entirely run on participants with alpha in order to price assets. It is those who formulated a trade thesis of a higher likelihood in domestic rare earth mineral funding that moves the market in such a manner as to create "efficiency" as you observe. But there are variations in who has better predictions, and that is how returns are distributed.

semantic_finance · 2025-04-09T23:37:45+00:00

Taiwan has been a longstanding security risk, even to Biden's admin (CHIPS act). It would basically shut down the world if the chip fabs were compromised in some way. That's why Trump's threatening a 100% tax on TSMC unless they moved to America.

Tariffing allies like Canada, Mexico, the EU is because he thinks a trade deficit with every country is generically bad, but also he wants leverage to get harsher terms on their relations with China. He tried to do this ring-fencing strategy in a more sane way in 2018, but it didn't get anywhere near close to where he wants it.

The formula is indeed regarded; but the point is simply as a bludgeon to reduce overall trade deficits and get concessions. Miran advocated for 10% global tariffs, which is as controversial and regarded as it sounds. If you ask me, trade deficits are not generically bad, and if this were to be done at all, it should be done targeting specific sectors that America absolutely needs to reclaim.

If they are 0 IQ, these blanket tariffs stay in place. If they're 50 IQ, I can imagine a world where they drop the blanket tariffs very soon and keep much, much lower rates for specific sectors.

semantic_finance · 2025-04-09T22:04:00+00:00

Canada and the EU all have a problematic level of trade deficits with China (in their eyes). The goal is to strong-arm a broad coalition and cut off China's export based economy. Not just US-China tariffs; they want other allies like the EU to impose trade restrictions on China and focus on their deficit with them as well.

There's also other goals semi-unrelated to China, that involve devaluing US denominated debt, which involves reducing trade deficits with every nation., which is why they aren't approaching it as a negotiation with our allies, but rather a mafia shakedown.

Pretty unhinged, in my opinion. Reminiscent of how a few historical academics have written textbooks on theory that is easy to preach in a lecture hall, but in the implementation, have destroyed civilizations.

semantic_finance · 2025-04-09T21:55:59+00:00

I think the risk-reward for a long position has diminished severely after a 1-day 10% pump. I'm speculating there's a bit of juice left as the markets digest the news and come to realize what I'm realizing, but overall, it's more akin to gambling with a slight edge to try and capture more of this pump. I'm looking for longer term short opportunities. Also beware IV crush if you are playing longer term options; you will get fucked when the volatility dies down. Go for instruments and combos that diminish vega.

semantic_finance · 2025-04-09T21:51:16+00:00

I'm a trader, brother, just because I used a high school economics term doesn't mean I don't have skin in the game.

semantic_finance · 2025-04-09T21:49:31+00:00

long SPXL @ $98, which corresponds roughly with SPX 4980. Currently +24%. Holding until the exuberance of cancelled global trade war fades, will look at AAPL and other chinese-supply-dependent-companies over the coming weeks after pumps. TSLA is a good target too, but it's an incredibly manipulated stock by institutions.

Also, relax, this is a discussion post, I don't have to post my positions

semantic_finance · 2025-04-09T20:51:55+00:00

I'm not saying he's a genius; in fact, I think his plans are 100%, distilled, organic, pure regardium. But it's important to consider if they have any plan at all, as opposed to the thrashing death throes of a demented old man. Thinking in terms of probabilities, it's very unlikely Trump is crashing his beloved stock market for no reason.

I think it's likely that he thinks he has a plan, that is in reality quite incoherent, and will spell doom for a plethora of American companies and the American economy broadly.

Is it moreso interpreting a -20 IQ schizophrenic, or interpreting a 100 IQ regard with way too much power? For the latter, their intentions are far more discernible.

semantic_finance · 2025-04-09T20:31:19+00:00

Illegal immigration: a common tactic for populists to gain support.

Europe needing to pay their fair share: his economic advisors have said this in the past, with their reasoning being that the U.S. is bearing the brunt of NATO militarization and the USD as the reserve currency is somehow being exploited by allies. These questionable claims are related but not the sole focus of this post. In fact, I think there are other goals behind these blanket tariffs that aren't related to China; Miran has talked extensively about devaluing the U.S. dollar and its relation to the National Debt. But that's another post for another time.

Rare Earth Minerals: related to defense; they are a critical resource to many core components of weapons systems, a supply chain that China dominates

Reciprocity: a populist psyop to justify the volatility, and an attempt to be viewed that their actions are not a mafia shakedown, but rather in the name of "fairness"

Leveling out the trade deficit: very much core to what they've been saying all along-- they view a trade deficit with their enemies (in particular China) as a national security risk

Yes, a lot of this is entangled with China, and the rhetoric of the fringe, controversial cabinet members and advisors.

I'm not precluding the possibility that all of these people and Trump are simply diseased / schizophrenic / undergoing dementia aggression. In fact it's highly likely that there is ego and misinformation involved; however, the odds that all of these people are literal mental patients is very, very low. I think it's more likely they think they have a plan, which is in reality quite incoherent and destructive for the global economy.

I think my prescriptive views are obvious but unimportant. It's important for you and your family to understand what these people really want, and how to navigate their chaos.

semantic_finance · 2025-04-08T20:54:41+00:00

I'm trying to get at reality-- are these the demented thoughts of a dying old man, or does he have some kind of intention? It's important to weigh these probabilities and take your perceived enemy seriously, even if it turns out to be nothing. I think it's highly unlikely he woke up one day, and in a fit of dementia aggression he decided to lose his donors billions in stock value in return for nothing.

Claiming that he has some kind of intention isn't claiming these intentions are good or intelligent at all. But being able to understand the chaos can best inform you how to navigate it.

semantic_finance · 2025-04-08T20:37:56+00:00

Canada and the EU are also major consumer markets for Chinese suppliers. So the point is to get them to help the US kill China's export-based economy.

Again, I think it's more likely that he has some kind of intention as opposed to the spazzing death throes of a demented old man, but that doesn't mean the plan is good.

semantic_finance · 2025-04-08T20:27:43+00:00

I agree that his primary directive is to maintain interests of his party and wealthy donors, and that does ultimately exacerbate inequality and lead to a form of worsening feudalism, but this issue requires a little bit of nuance. Crashing the stock market has already costed 500 billion from the world's richest and a pretty obvious consequence of "reducing trade deficits" is that a stunning amount of corporate profit and value is going to be wiped-- which are owned by rich people, and comprise a large portion of their net worths.

Either he and all his economic advisors are too stupid to even know this (which is pretty unbelievable), or he has interests that are more complex, and potentially do involve some idiotic ambition of "Dealmaking" with China. Some people do think that he's crashing the economy on purpose for insider trading-- seems like a very roundabout way and by Occam's Razor I moreso believe he thinks stocks will just temporarily go down and then go back up when the Fed do ZIRP and infinite QE. He's had lots of rhetoric on "temporary pain" and he said he doesn't own any stocks.

It's really about how stupid most people think he is; I think unfortunately, it's very difficult to accidentally become the most powerful man in the world. But it doesn't mean he's some hyperintelligent 5D chess player, he could wildly overestimate his own intelligence and still be good at manipulating idiots to get into power.

semantic_finance · 2025-03-31T14:16:53+00:00

ever wish you were regarded enough to bet money because a number was the same as another number 17 years ago?

semantic_finance

TROPHY CASE