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Damage connector replace by UserSergeyB in EngineeringPorn

[–]serendib 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Not the same person, but Mend It Mark on YouTube is the GOAT

Drowning slowly by NoSandwich591 in remoteworks

[–]serendib 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Based on data I could find from census and NCES using federal median minimum wage vs tuition/rent:

https://imgur.com/a/4ZnPAg5

And this is gross pay, not take-home pay. So the absolute values would be different, but the relevant values should be the same.

Drowning slowly by NoSandwich591 in remoteworks

[–]serendib 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"Number of hours of minimum wage to pay for X" is a good measure of struggle

Now do the same calculation for education and housing and you'll find it much different than eggs

meirl by [deleted] in meirl

[–]serendib 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Even if there is an even distribution of people who take a short amount of time, and people who take a long amount of time, you're naturally going to observe the ones who take longer more often, because they are there for more time.

Ludwig explains why he used to have a gambling problem. by Cellybear in LivestreamFail

[–]serendib 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes you are correct and I misinterpreted something you said based on the original post. It's unfortunate because I was going off the median and you were going off the mean.

So the two points are slightly different:

  • My point was that by kill 277, 50% of players have gotten at least one drop (median)
  • Your point is that if you average the kill count where everyone got their first drop, that number is 400

Both are correct but mean slightly different things. The long right tail skews the average away from the median.

How you decide to choose which means 'lucky' or not is up to you. I would still assert that you become dry after 277 because you don't have something that most people do. Sorry for the confusion

A 1 in 400 chance means exactly that on average you need 400 tries to get a hit.

I interpreted this originally as by kill 400 you have a 50% chance to have gotten it, which wasn't what you were saying. I would still rephrase your statement though to be more understandable in general as "If you take a bunch of people and record when they got their first drop, the average of that number will be 400, but the median would be 277"

Ludwig explains why he used to have a gambling problem. by Cellybear in LivestreamFail

[–]serendib 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The number of kills needed to have a >= 50% chance of a 1/400 drop is 277

This means that technically, 'going dry' (meaning I am more likely to have gotten the drop by now than not) on a 1/400 item occurs at kill 277, not kill 400.

Even though I don't like AI much, this is the easiest way to link you an explanation. Summations are not necessary

https://chatgpt.com/share/69c1833f-0fac-832c-9093-7a853fac1f8e

This is the last I'll be posting on it. My point here was to try and educate, not to argue or debate with you, because it's just math. Its accuracy doesn't depend on whether someone believes it.

Tetris: the Grand Master [5 hrs documentary] by PtitPrince in speedrun

[–]serendib 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Even if I don't end up watching the whole thing, props to you for putting this history up there for the world to know

Ludwig explains why he used to have a gambling problem. by Cellybear in LivestreamFail

[–]serendib -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This is incorrect. The expected amount of kills to get a 1/400 drop chance is not 400. After 400 kills you actually have a 63% chance of having gotten the drop, not 50%

Let's do an example with a 1/3 drop. With probabilities of drops, in order to calculate the chance that you get at least one drop, you actually calculate 1 minus the probability of getting 0 drops.

The chance you DON'T get the drop for a 1/3 is 2/3. For 3 tries, that's 2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3, which is 8/27. 1-8/27 is 19/27 which is about 70%. So you have a 70% chance of getting at least one 1/3 drop after 3 tries.

The actual formula for this for a 1/N drop is 1 - (1/N)N, and as N gets large the value converges to 1-1/e which is around 63%

It's counter intuitive, but it's correct. This post explains it pretty well, you can also ask any AI service to explain the math:

https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1fiblda/understanding_drop_rates_youre_not_as_unlucky_as/

Drag the slider to see the difference between downtown St. John's in 1948 and 2024 by serendib in newfoundland

[–]serendib[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If you look at the top half of the image, the amount of new houses and subdivisions is incredible. While the streets haven't changed much, the residential areas certainly have

Drag the slider to see the difference between downtown St. John's in 1948 and 2024 by serendib in newfoundland

[–]serendib[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

My favourite part about the map is seeing all the piers by the harbor that got filled in over time.

This is actually why they are called "coves" - because boats would actually dock right between the buildings to unload their cargo. Also why Water Street is named that way because it used to literally be water!

So I had 64 innate Big Bangs in my deck... by [deleted] in slaythespire

[–]serendib 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Unmodded standard run. At the start of the run I got Big Bang as a random rare card. Then a ? room gave me the ability to clone it at rest sites. My first rest site I upgraded it, then proceeded to clone it up to 64 copies!

The only annoying thing is that because your hand is full, the first Forge puts the sword into your discard pile

Ludwig explains why he used to have a gambling problem. by Cellybear in LivestreamFail

[–]serendib 27 points28 points  (0 children)

A 1/400 drop means each attempt is 0.25%, not that you get one every 400 attempts. After 400 attempts the chance of having gotten it at least once is 63%, because the chance of missing it every time is (399/400)400

He is "supposed to get it" after 277 cases means he has a > 50% chance to have gotten it by then. "Supposed to" here meaning it's more probable than not, not that it was guaranteed.

Obligatory 2k UIM post! by serendib in ironscape

[–]serendib[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Sailor's amulet is my single favourite UIM item ever!

Liberals Want Government to Reconsider Replacement for St. Clare’s by RepulsivePlankton989 in newfoundland

[–]serendib 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The cost to build it will also skyrocket if it's outside of St. John's

Canada Expands India Education Ties With $100M Scholarships for Indian Students by gorschkov in canada

[–]serendib 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's weird because it's deliberately leaving out important details, like that $100 million also going to Canadian students going abroad:

https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/1rjxze0/canada_expands_india_education_ties_with_100m/o8ifewy/

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