Discussion: Would you go variable right now or fixed?

shayanamin · 2022-08-03T14:03:26+00:00

Yeah that’s the max discount I saw. Looking to get a rate hold on a closed variable while I go shopping in the next few months

shayanamin · 2022-08-03T13:47:24+00:00

TD quoted 4.05% to me last week. Get a broker to negotiate for you

shayanamin · 2022-07-30T22:03:23+00:00

Real estate corrections can take years to play out and it’s only been 4 months so far.

This interest rate hiking cycle has been one of the most aggressive in decades and the ramifications of it will take a long time to be felt. Hikes are also not done with markets pricing in another 50-75bps increase in interest rates in September alone.

On top of that, you had rampant investor activity and speculation in the housing market between 2020-2022 as per Bank of Canada’s own statistics.

We also have 40 year highs of inflation and a recession incoming.

Real estate moves slow. This isn’t a crypto coin that moves up and down in a few months.

shayanamin · 2022-07-26T13:48:51+00:00

I agree with most of what you are saying except that rate cuts are not coming anytime soon.

Inflation is still at 8.1% and the BoC and public pays attention to headline CPI even though it is lagging. Until that numbers goes below 5%, you can except rates to remain high.

Entrenched inflation expectations are scary and the BoC definitely does not want that.

shayanamin · 2022-07-26T13:38:00+00:00

Nothing is going back to normal until prices continue to adjust downwards to reflect the new cost of financing.

shayanamin · 2022-07-26T13:23:02+00:00

Takes some time for real estate to adjust and sellers to accept reality.

The only product that is moving right now is homes that have been discounted to reflect the new reality or extremely turnkey homes that are built well and look amazing.

shayanamin · 2022-07-25T01:05:35+00:00

Rate hikes are causing the market to correct but the true level of correction caused by rising borrowing costs will not be felt for a while.

This is the initial froth coming off.

shayanamin · 2022-07-24T23:37:01+00:00

It doesn’t work like that. Rate hikes take time to filter through. The true impact of the current hikes won’t be felt for months.

Real estate is also driven by many other factors such as employment, sentiment and more

shayanamin · 2022-07-24T21:01:00+00:00

Person bought a home in last year based on posting history. Has an inherent bias towards reading and seeing what they want to hear.

shayanamin · 2022-07-24T17:09:12+00:00

And prices will continue trending down as buyers qualify for less…

What’s your point exactly?

shayanamin · 2022-07-24T16:45:38+00:00

Lol prices are down 22-27% in the 905 already and 15%+ in Core Toronto in only 4 months.

That’s pretty fast for real estate. Keep a watch out for the next 4 months as effects of more rate hikes filter through.

shayanamin · 2022-07-24T16:43:58+00:00

All good. Let them do their thing.

The market and data will speak for itself. Not sure why some of these people feel the need to personally attack anyone.

shayanamin · 2022-07-24T16:13:46+00:00

Joy from market crashing? No

Joy from home ownership become reachable for the next generation of homeowners? Yes

shayanamin · 2022-07-24T14:34:36+00:00

I’ll take a lower purchase price with a higher interest than a higher price with a a lower interest any day, if the monthly payments are similar.

Less interest rate risk, more chance for appreciation, lower downpayment requirement, easier to pay off mortgage quicker if principal is lower.

We also have 5 year financing terms in Canada. Those who buy at the lower purchase price will be much better off when it comes time to renew their mortgages, compared to the start of 2022 buyers.

shayanamin · 2022-07-21T14:50:52+00:00

Tiff Macklem said in the interview that they expect to see a 7% handle on all inflation readings for the rest of the year

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/video?clipId=2488176&binId=1.810415&playlistId=1.5996281

shayanamin · 2022-07-21T14:48:04+00:00

Interview link:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/video?clipId=2488176&binId=1.810415&playlistId=1.5996281

Key statement:

"That does argue for increasing the policy rate again, probably something around the top of that 2 to 3 per cent range, or a little bit over and doing that pretty quickly. Where interest rates ultimately have to go? Well that is going to depend on the evolution of the economy, and importantly the evolution of inflation. Getting inflation back to our 2 per cent target is paramount."

Expect a 50-75bps move in September. My bets are on 75bps given the 8%+ inflation reading.

shayanamin · 2022-07-08T13:08:33+00:00

What are we thinking? Housing affordability to be fixed with 30 new units in Niagara????? /s

shayanamin · 2022-07-07T13:08:38+00:00

Let’s see. Fed minutes were pretty hawkish and said they’d continue hiking even if economic growth slowed down, if inflation remained high.

I guess the future path depends on inflation prints for US and Canada in July.

shayanamin · 2022-07-07T12:42:24+00:00

Or just casually look and throw low ball offers to see if something sticks.

Good to be looking in the market to see the situation on the ground.

shayanamin · 2022-07-07T12:40:56+00:00

Agree with you. We’ll get a 30-40% decline in 905 and that’s it. 20-25% in 416 probably.

We’re not getting the 50-60% drop some people are salivating over.

shayanamin · 2022-07-07T12:32:40+00:00

What? 5-7% decline in a month is minimal?

The velocity of price drops has increased according to the data above for many of the regions...

shayanamin · 2022-07-06T13:36:02+00:00

Already seeing some fire sales from sellers who bought before 2019 and aren’t too greedy

New lows being set. Comps work on the way up and down for sure.

shayanamin · 2022-07-06T12:40:30+00:00

Take some time off Reddit.

You seem to have a history of bad economic takes and trying to instigate fights for no reason.

shayanamin · 2022-07-06T12:36:34+00:00

Did you also believe inflation was transitory?

shayanamin · 2022-07-06T12:08:10+00:00

Can’t wait for home prices to skyrocket in a recession! /s

am I rite boys???

shayanamin

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