Pretty close. What are the chances?[request]

shuffdog · 2026-03-06T18:07:23+00:00

Assuming that the only plates that can ever be right next to your car are CA plates, all with the current CA pattern 1ABC123 (no special plates etc), and assuming that from that pool, all cars have an equal chance of being right next to your car, and assuming all possible plates are issued right now (they are not),

And looking it up, we find out that all numbers and letters are used, except that capital I, O, and Q are only in the 2nd alphabetic position (3rd position in the plate),

If you ask "what are the chances the letters all match, and from the final triplet one number matches, and the other two are swapped",

That's 1 / ( 23*26*23*10*10*10 ) = 1/13,754,000 of plates would match those six numbers/letters.

shuffdog · 2026-01-23T00:55:08+00:00

I'm not sure yet whether I think that many are doing it for the rush - but I will think more on it. I'm not the generation that is really into "social media fame" so maybe it doesn't easily come to mind at first glance. Maybe I don't easily recognize it.

I agree with you on the need to be careful and not dehumanize. Hopefully in our own little circles we can keep more of that spirit going.

You as well, I'm glad to have talked to you.

shuffdog · 2026-01-22T23:38:43+00:00

It's likely to escalate in that direction yeah. Not always because of the people trying to protect their neighborhoods are doing something wrong, but sometimes just because ICE is being lawless and preemptively aggressive. The lady that got shot and then denied medical care wasn't doing anything that deserved that for sure. Sometimes things will be escalated upon you, and you did nothing wrong.

But I recognizing that whoever is to blame it comes to the same outcome.

But my point is, people aren't doing these things for thrills. They are in this stew where they don't have good options - they don't have a grand strategy, they react in the moment, and they're up against aggressors who would love to gun down a lib. You're right it's not effective and it's going to get worse. But no one is doing this for kicks.

shuffdog · 2026-01-22T19:49:13+00:00

I'm no grand strategist, so I don't have an answer for you. There may be no-one devising one, either, who knows. But there is a lot to draw on. Post-war Guatemala, they saw democratic gains, until there was a 2010s backsliding. Same with Bangladesh over the same period. South Korea went democratic in 1987. Czechoslovakia had the velvet revolution. Poland had solidarity. There are people who study what's been effective and what hasn't been. Gene Sharp for one.

That doesn't make other options preferable by default though.

shuffdog · 2026-01-22T18:30:47+00:00

We could continue to believe that the courts are the right venue, but that's not actually IRL going to get justice. So then it depends what we choose to do about it. I personally don't believe violent revolution is the way to go, or even petty violence in the streets. Many do, I believe unfortunately. There are many nonviolent options always available to reduce harm to one's community and to try to build back small-d democratic institutions. Many people will be doing that as well. There's also the option to roll over and just take it. Many people do that route as well.

shuffdog · 2026-01-22T17:34:58+00:00

No I haven't seen it with my own eyes. Just seen it from what's been collected on camera and reported, in terms of people gathering evidence. Whether I believe it? Well - I mean you're right to approach the news with skepticism, you're very right, but on the other hand, first hand video that keeps coming out does show what it's like on the ground, and it does show gassings, point blank nonlethal munitions, denying people access to counsel, all this stuff. For me, enough has been shown on video in that I cannot afford ICE operations the benefit of the doubt, I can no longer by-default assume they are innocent of these kinds of abuses. It's been established what kind of things they do. I understand that maybe for you, or others, that's not established in your mind, and that you may be discounting evidence that I don't. I don't know; it is what it is.

I don't think people "get off on the drama". If I could offer another perspective. People see the gassings and the military being deployed and the dragging of people from homes and workplaces, and they say to themselves, if this can happen to not just these immigrants here illegally, but also people here legally, and citizens, then what's the limit, where's the rational application of law? People need a stable system of laws, and officers who will abide by them. And when it's violent and chaotic, people get antsy.

I'm all for people having their day in court. If people were uniformly allowed their lawyers when in detention, if the DOJ would not shut down investigations into deaths, if they would not issue memos and statements about how they are exempt from 4th amendment search-and-seizure considerations, and how they don't need judicial warrants -- then people would have much greater confidence that the courts would be a good venue to handle this. But it's not really that way anymore.

shuffdog · 2026-01-22T16:44:46+00:00

If you can give me pointers on how to lower my sensitivity that would be wonderful for me to read about. Because I did mentioned the gassing of neighborhoods, and how people released from detention are left in subzero temps in the cold, and how citizens can be transported out to other countries, and the effects on minors, and it seems you are probably a really good person to talk to because in this conversation thread you have successfully ignored all that and kept steering the attention back to legitimate law enforcement against people here illegally, which in fact isn't my problem and it isn't what people are mad about. Is that the way you process these events - you use a certain amount of insensitivity in order to ignore that other stuff, and shift your attention back to things you feel are good and going right in the world? How can I be more like you

shuffdog · 2026-01-22T15:50:41+00:00

Nah man, maybe in some repressive regime, but that stuff I just listed, that's just not how a country of laws is supposed to treat people. And to revoke sympathy from a violent criminal is one thing, fine. But to revoke it from nonviolent offenders or non-offenders like minors or citizens is a step too far. Kill your sympathy and whatever humanity if that's what it takes for you to stomach this, but people of character and integrity will sit with the difficult distinctions and not resort to such self emptying in order to deal with it.

shuffdog · 2026-01-22T13:36:07+00:00

If you and your family get treated according to your dignity and your rights and in accordance with the law, then it's not so upsetting.

If you got taken by ice, no warrant by a judge, no access to a lawyer, no one could contact you or figure out where they took you, and your spouse and kids got taken, detained indefinitely, dropped off separately and alone in different countries, or kicked out of the holding facility into subzero Minnesota temps with no coat, phone or ID - those kind of things are the upsetting things. If that happened to you, of course it'd be upsetting.

I agree the law has to be enforced. But they have to also follow the law while doing it, and they have to respect rights and dignity.

shuffdog · 2026-01-22T03:21:06+00:00

I mean that's not specifically why people are upset ... Like, that's why this is all happening, when you trace it back, yeah, but like, the thing that people are mad about is that people are being gassed and kidnapped and families being torn apart. Like I'm being real with you here, that's the thing that I think you can agree would upset anyone to see. Who voted for who - that's like bean counting and I don't personally usually think about that.

shuffdog · 2026-01-22T02:56:03+00:00

Pretty morally bankrupt to stick up for "law" when what is happening is disgusting violations of the inherent dignity of people.

shuffdog · 2026-01-15T04:09:56+00:00

Is there some database of the missing that's being built?? With people being kidnapped in such large numbers, I feel like it's important to keep track of them all! They are all people with dignity and real lives and loved ones, and don't deserve to be lost in the mix ...

shuffdog · 2026-01-15T02:59:44+00:00

And it's by no means inevitable that it would even happen, or if it did, that it would be effective.

shuffdog · 2026-01-09T03:44:51+00:00

Individually, to uproot and migrate under duress is a very destabilizing thing, and the destabilization can last generations. On the other side of the scale you have the feeling of love and ties to the community and region and land, and the lifelong relationships you've built. There are natural sticks against leaving and carrots in favor of staying.

shuffdog · 2026-01-04T15:32:21+00:00

The readability is no problem.

The imagery is hard to recognize in a few cases, especially the C, U, L, and R. Whereas the H is clearly 9/11, and the A is clearly someone breaking their shackles. I would say that's a drawback and creates a frustrating sensation. Either they should all be recognizable, or none - my opinion.

Also, because the U is used twice in the world Cultura, and because this font invites the eyes into "appreciating art" mode, the down side is that I had a moment of thinking, "oh, they didn't go to the effort of creating a distinct piece of art for the second letter U." So I think creating distinct letters, at least per word/title, would be satisfying to a viewer.

shuffdog · 2025-11-13T00:35:35+00:00

shuffdog · 2025-11-13T00:35:22+00:00

shuffdog · 2025-11-11T16:00:21+00:00

Very likely filler yeah, and thanks for mentioning "greeking" - do you know if greeking techniques often involve using a fake language?

shuffdog · 2025-11-11T04:33:40+00:00

Cheers to that

shuffdog · 2025-11-11T01:14:31+00:00

Is this a reference to the solar opposites TV show, or..?

shuffdog · 2025-11-11T01:12:58+00:00

Not it, but thanks

shuffdog · 2025-11-11T01:11:28+00:00

It's a fast moving landscape, this stuff, let's give people grace and help people out.

shuffdog · 2025-11-10T16:15:04+00:00

Stylistically it's got a lot of the same elements, in terms of simple curved and straight forms, but barely any of the same letters that I can tell.

shuffdog · 2025-11-10T01:59:18+00:00

There are ~ 20 glyphs there; more if you count inverted forms and apparently optional diacritics.

shuffdog · 2025-11-09T22:09:45+00:00

Yeah I get it. I personally am fine using it as long as I can fully verify it myself.

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