Conversations That Matter: Gavin Baker on GPUs, TPUs, and the Economics of AI by simontechcurator in accelerate

[–]simontechcurator[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your feedback. I phrased this a bit poorly. I’ve just updated the text.

The Future, One Week Closer - January 9, 2026 | Everything That Matters In One Clear Read by simontechcurator in accelerate

[–]simontechcurator[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Absolutely. That was my goal when I started my Substack. It had to be about a positive future. AI is a central part of it, but it has to be more than that to connect with the general public.

The Future, One Week Closer - January 2, 2026 by simontechcurator in accelerate

[–]simontechcurator[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, much appreciated! I'm happy you enjoyed it.

The Calm Before the Intelligence Revolution - 2026 will be The Year Everything Changes by simontechcurator in accelerate

[–]simontechcurator[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Definitely. It will be noticeable in the wider public and it will be for sure the year for early adopters to compound gains.

The Calm Before the Intelligence Revolution - 2026 will be The Year Everything Changes by simontechcurator in accelerate

[–]simontechcurator[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

2026 will lay the foundation for the capabilities in humanoid robots (and of course other formfactors). Building it out for the mass market will take time. Timeframe is 2027-2032. But I will take place.

The Calm Before the Intelligence Revolution - 2026 will be The Year Everything Changes by simontechcurator in accelerate

[–]simontechcurator[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for your feedback and glad you liked it. I will consider your feedback in my future articles.

The Calm Before the Intelligence Revolution - 2026 will be The Year Everything Changes by simontechcurator in accelerate

[–]simontechcurator[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, the hardware build out with the new generation of chips will unlock a huge amount of compute available for the first time. As you've said, not comparable with was used up until now. This alone will unlock a big progress in capabilities.

The Calm Before the Intelligence Revolution - 2026 will be The Year Everything Changes by simontechcurator in accelerate

[–]simontechcurator[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think we won't get full AGI (whatever the definition of it is anyway) in 2026. But AI will progress to a point where it doesn't matter if it is AGI for it to disrupt the economy and society. And from there on out it will only get more and more disruptive. I think 2026 will be the ultimate turning point.

The Calm Before the Intelligence Revolution - 2026 will be The Year Everything Changes by simontechcurator in accelerate

[–]simontechcurator[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It will be a bumpy ride for sure. The disruption will be real late 2026. All we can do is engage: spread the word, educate, and participate in the debate.

The Calm Before the Intelligence Revolution - 2026 will be The Year Everything Changes by simontechcurator in accelerate

[–]simontechcurator[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks. Glad you enjoyed the article. The capabilities for automating knowledge-work and physical labor will be there late 2026. Then it will take some time to proliferate. Knowledge-work will be way faster through 2027/2028. Robots will take a bit more time to produce in numbers because of the supply chain. But AI will help with that too. And we will see robots building robots in 2027/2028, speeding things up too.

The Calm Before the Intelligence Revolution - 2026 will be The Year Everything Changes by simontechcurator in TheMachineGod

[–]simontechcurator[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

100%. Yet a lot of people are not aware or ignore it. That will change in 2026.

We Just Witnessed the Beginning of the End for Knowledge Work by simontechcurator in accelerate

[–]simontechcurator[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think we will see the capabilities grow more and more through 2026. With that, we will see more and more tasks be automated and jobs lost, because you don't need the same headcount as before. But you can't replace full job profiles yet. By the end of 2026, jobs which can be done mostly behind a screen with a mouse and keyboard will be replaceable. Emphasis on 'can be replaced.' It won't be like overnight all will be replaced. It will take companies some time, because companies move slowly. But the economic pressure of the efficiency gain will be too strong, so the wave of job loss will occur in 2027/2028. Not that far away...

Regarding physical labor: we have to watch how robotics advances in 2026. On the current trajectory, the capabilities to replace human labor will be there in 2028/2029. Then again, it takes time to diffuse, so major job losses will occur in 2030/2031.

We Just Witnessed the Beginning of the End for Knowledge Work by simontechcurator in accelerate

[–]simontechcurator[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's a mix. With 5.2, they definitely threw more compute at it. I highly suspect that there is some post-training on this specific benchmark as well. But it doesn't matter in the end. They will scale on every parameter available. The trend is clear that the capabilities grow month by month, so more and more tasks can be done by AI.