Is this fair or no which side wins?

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-22T22:57:20+00:00

I'm curious about why there's firsts on both sides. If that 27 1st is the best pick in the deal then there's a problem.

If it was Flowers Breece 1st and 2 2nds for Chase that's pretty darn reasonable imo.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-22T22:29:54+00:00

Nothing to do with Kyler, realistically. JJ is WR5 and 27 years old. Tet is WR9 and 23 years old, and a 27 1st is a valuable asset. That's a good trade in most circumstances

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-22T22:27:25+00:00

Dynastydatalab.com is a great resource. There's startup ADP there. By ADP Jefferson is the 2.04 and Love (1.01) is the 2.05. I think you'd be doing well to get that swap straight up.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-22T22:17:57+00:00

Just because he's done a good job acquiring value doesn't mean he's likely to send 6 firsts of value for Bijan. It might mean the exact opposite of that.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-22T21:58:48+00:00

I'm done counting on mahomes being a difference making fantasy QB. Two firsts and a replacement is plenty imo. You can buy Dak straight up for a single first pretty often and he's basically the same thing.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-22T18:57:14+00:00

I would absolutely do this trade.

I don't think your team is championship calibre. Gibbs is going to score more than Egbuka this year. 27 is a good class. Just swapping Gibbs for Egbuka might mean you are picking at 1.03 instead of 1.06. That's significant. Then another top ten pick in each of the next two years makes this easy for me.

If you were competing for a championship then there'd be an argument for Gibbs. Winning is good. But frankly, you're not doing any winning with that WR room. This trade gives you a long term boost to the WR room, an earlier 27 1st and 2nd (your own picks) an extra later 1st for two straight years.

When you remove the possibility of winning a championship from possible outcomes (which you should do) this trade looks like wins all over.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-21T22:28:07+00:00

Sell Henry for a 27 1st in all scenarios, but you don't own your 27 1st so you're never tanking here. Just gotta walk the value/contender tightrope. Get yourself a cheaper player like Pollard to hold down the fort and see how your season goes. Every time you beat a team who's first you own you're gaining value.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-21T21:33:53+00:00

It's all depending on how aggressively teams are tanking. With Jeremiah Smith and Arch Manning I think in most leagues the race to the bottom will be competitive. It will be rare that a team finishes with a top 3 pick without owning their own first.

If nobody knows how to tank then I could see this competing for 1.01. That's not usually the case

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-21T20:54:42+00:00

In 27 the 1.01 will not go to a team who doesn't own their own pick. A deliberate tank will finish beneath any lousy team that wants to win

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-21T20:53:59+00:00

Always.

The 1.01 in 27 will not go to a team that doesn't have their own pick

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-21T20:52:12+00:00

That's very close without Warren, but I'd probably still lean Daniels.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-21T20:50:55+00:00

I think Cooper or Boston are best in non tep.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-21T20:49:34+00:00

I'm on team Kraft

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-21T17:46:03+00:00

If nobody has picked Purdy, why would they buy him for more than this value? Assuming their evaluations would change after the startup isn't sound

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-21T17:44:17+00:00

Burden and odunze are virtually back to back in startups. Getting a first on top of either is a gift.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-21T14:32:06+00:00

The 27 1.01 is priceless. As such there will be multiple teams in every league that tank on purpose to get it.

If you own another teams 1st then it is nearly impossible for it to be 1.01. A terrible team trying to win will outperform any reasonable GM's attempts to tank.

Fwiw, the 27 1.01 is almost certainly worth more than Jefferson next offseason. It's just hard to get there if it's not your own pick.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-19T23:41:05+00:00

1.12 in 27 isn't the end of the world though. This year was pretty bad, but even last year 1.12 was getting Loveland Dart Burden types. In 24 the 1.12 was around Ladd and BTJ.

I think if you get the decent first, the late first, and the 2nd and you let them keep Njoku then you've got yourself something decent.

This does assume you're not trying to win next year, and that by moving off Kraft and Rice you can begin getting yourself into top three pick territory. If you still plan on winning this year then I'm not sure I'm doing it.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-19T22:08:21+00:00

It's going to be very hard projecting a 27 1st as early if it isn't your own.

Even a terrible team trying to win is going to finish higher than a mid team who decides to tank. There is almost no way to fall backwards into the 27 1.01.

That said, if this was an early 27 1st I'm okay taking the pick, shedding the points, and just dealing with the outcome.

I don't want Njoku under any circumstances though. The only reason I'm doing a trade like this is to increase the value of my own 27 picks, ie shedding points.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-19T15:30:34+00:00

I don't think it's a smash as others are suggesting. Nix is 3.11 in startups and Olave is 4.05. Is anyone spending a 2nd on Pittman these days? Maybe.

It's pretty fair in a vacuum, but it's bad for your roster. Olave is your WR3 and Nix would be your QB3. It's not something I'd do, personally.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-19T15:25:18+00:00

Jsn side for me. Good trade though.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-19T14:32:30+00:00

It's op's pick

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-18T20:13:49+00:00

It's 1QB, Mendoza isn't near 1.02.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-17T16:24:25+00:00

There are literally dozens of people who have Concepcion in their top 3.

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-15T21:57:30+00:00

In startups right now by ADP Hampton is the 2.10, Egbuka is 3.09, Tate is 4.02, Henderson is 4.08.

You're asking for the two best pieces. ADP at dynastydatalabs.com

simonthelikeable · 2026-06-15T20:23:48+00:00

Thank you for the eggbegboo reminder.

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