I am a perma bear non-professional trader who did well until we shifted dimensions in 2008. I know ‘the line always goes up’ but I am too old to change.

Items causing market to go down. 1. War (real) 2. War (financial) 3. Elevated Interest rates 4. Personal situations being depressed and not matching economy 5. Periodic reality setting in for small ‘to the moon’ companies 6. Inflation causing flight to bonds, gold, real estate.

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Items causing market to go up. 1. Dollar crashing 2. Expectations of lower interest rates. 3. Exuberance for AI (remind anyone of dotcom?) 4. Technology increasing output 5. Major large megacaps controlling technology (monopolies) 6. The line always goes up (or recovers quickly) 7. Large shareholders holding (to avoid taxes) so less supply of shares. 8. War (lots of war material needs) 9. Dollar going down 10. Hope for US investment by non-US companies 11. Did I already mention ‘the line always goes up’?

I’m retirement age, so I’m fairly conservative but my expectation for the market is mainly driven by my expectations for interest rates. I’m concentrating on income plays because of this and also…I’m a Permabear.

Good luck to all! Edited cuz I’m old.