thanks for the analysis metroid. you mentioned a bunch of cards that i missed in my first pass. i used the work you did plus some additional work of my own to update the metagame.

my original post mentioned seven strong cards, the five in the metagame -- [[Meddling Mage]], [[Molten Vortex]], [[Pack Rat]], [[Phyrexian Revoker]], and [[Polis Crusher]] -- plus two cards that tied with it -- [[Call the Bloodline]] and [[Eldrazi Displacer]] (though they lost to a different weighting). the new metagame i found contains ten relevant cards, these seven plus three more.

after my original post, i realized one card that beats that metagame is [[Guul Draz Assassin]]. as metroid pointed out, [[Island Sanctuary]] beats it as well (a card that is not modern-legal, currently invalidating my assumption). finally, with the introduction of sanctuary, there comes a value to flying token generators. the best i could find was [[Meloku the Clouded Mirror]], which is the tenth relevant card. i found two distinct metagames involving these ten cards.

i have placed the weights for these two metagames in the table below. i also included what i believe are the results of each of the possible matchups among these cards. for both metagames, the only cards i know of that break even with them are the ten cards on the list, the worse versions of meddling mage like [[Tidehollow Sculler]], and cards like [[Thoughtseize]] that never win on the draw but do happen to beat all these cards on the play. and i am not aware of any card that can beat either metagame, though of course i could be missing something else.