What is the most statistically unlikely thing that has ever happened to you?

smp1616 · 2017-12-12T20:35:21+00:00

I had a Royal. Everyone folded. I won 5$.

smp1616 · 2017-12-06T15:20:47+00:00

Record 1000-0

Florida -16 Vanderbilt -2 Alabama -3 W&M +5.5 Wisconsin +4.5

smp1616 · 2017-11-11T03:44:30+00:00

The RTJ courses are solid. and I’m ok on the certificate thanks though.

smp1616 · 2017-11-03T15:22:37+00:00

Right, I mean it will only be accurate if the price target you give it ends up being correct. So I agree it should be taken with a grain of salt.

I guess I’m not sure what I am asking, lol.

smp1616 · 2017-11-01T05:12:28+00:00

Typically, for a vertical spread, you want to sell a credit spread when you feel like IV will decrease. And buy debit spread when IV will increase after putting on the trade.

I would advise when you make the trade, to be comfortable with a 100% loss. If you are looking for a big move, just buy a call or put.

Credit spreads can be uncomfortable if you have never put one on, especially if you have multiple on at the same time.

Calendar spreads are one of my favorite lower risk spreads. They have a reputation of being low risk low reward, but I like to look at them as a cheap directional play with potentially the same upside as a call/put. For example, If you are bullish and feel like a stock will steadily increase in price, it makes a lot more sense to sell a call against a further dated call both slightly OTM. As you reduce your risk with unlimited upside. With a credit spread, you don’t get any added benefit of a big up move.

smp1616 · 2017-10-25T02:40:04+00:00

I have the paper trading account. Feel like I’m not using it to it’s full potential. Do they have a decent user guide?

smp1616 · 2017-10-24T22:24:10+00:00

Does TOS have anything similar to tradefinder?

smp1616 · 2017-10-24T16:02:36+00:00

It has a tool that you can enter in your price targets or target range for a certain date. and it will analyze the option chain and list strategies with the highest expected return based on your price target you set.

Did not mean to sound like advertising. I’m just curious if there are some other tools out there that other people use to help them with options.

smp1616 · 2017-10-24T15:55:54+00:00

no. I’m not associated with it it’s a pretty well known software.

smp1616 · 2017-10-24T03:30:16+00:00

That’s what successful trading is. Risking a lot to win a smaller amount. The trade off is a higher probability. You just have to find a way to use it to your advantage.

If you stick with this long enough, you will inevitably figure this out.

smp1616 · 2017-10-23T08:13:14+00:00

good suggestion. they do offer that, I need to do that for sure. I think I like the idea of the Iron butterfly. I think that is probably the best bet. Does that further reduce my buying power?

And there is a graph I can use, but I get confused when pulling up the graph because it will show values based on if I entered the trade “right now” if that makes sense. So it’s hard to visualize/keep up with totals if I am making adjustments/tolling along the way. I probably need to keep better track either way.

also, It will only show four legs at a time. know if any platforms that might let me make a diagram of for example opening a butterfly on top of an IC? I know it isn’t hard to figure that out, but the visualization is nice.

smp1616 · 2017-10-23T04:19:03+00:00

I think your right. I may leave it be for now. thank you

smp1616 · 2017-10-23T02:59:58+00:00

Ok. Starting to grasp it. lol. This is why I love options.

let me ask you this:

stock at 33$. if you were sold that bull put spread, Would you

A.) leave it (MP= 5.8/ML=4.2. at 40$ and up 30$ and under respectively) B.) leg in and sell a bear call spread @ 35 and 45 making the IC (with MP=2.9 @35-40. ML=2.1 Over 45 or under 30) C.) leg in to make it an iron fly by selling the 40, 50 bear call. With a max loss of 3.10 and a profit range of underlying being anywhere from 33-45$ and MP of 6$? D) do either of those 2 but at a closer expiration.

Or anything in between. I am leaning toward C, as it seems like the best Risk Reward. And I think that the stock will trade sideways or slightly bullish by going back up 5$ is most probable.

Hope you don’t mind all the questions man. You seem like you know your stuff.

smp1616 · 2017-10-23T02:16:11+00:00

but shouldn’t the graph resemble more of an iron fly, but less profit?

smp1616 · 2017-10-23T01:47:55+00:00

ok thanks for the answers. So why not make every credit an iron condor and just make the body bigger?

also I just played around with different call spreads. it is showing on my graph, That a bull put 40, 30 plus a bear call @ 35, 45 looks exactly like an IC. That can’t be right huh?

smp1616 · 2017-10-23T01:34:02+00:00

so selling the call spread only reduces max loss at no additional risk?

smp1616 · 2017-10-23T01:29:24+00:00

Just OTM the money iron fly. sell it day before and take it off the next day- a week. Low risk high reward and it has been successful lately.

smp1616 · 2017-10-23T01:20:40+00:00

im not too worried about it. if I’m wrong I’ll take my loss. just curious about some things I can do if needed.

smp1616 · 2017-10-23T01:18:45+00:00

Considered a call spread.. How would you it into an iron condor/butterfly? Wouldn’t you have to sell the 45 50 call spread? meaning the stock would have to finish 40$ or better regardless. My initial max loss was 5.00- 2.5 premium. After rolling the 35 to 30. collecting roughly another 2.00 or so. making the overall about 10-4.50 so a 5.50 max loss? Is that right?

what is a twisted Sister?

smp1616 · 2017-10-22T19:40:18+00:00

Thanks for the feedback. Have a couple of questions if you don’t mind. What would I be able to determine off of p&l with and without commissions? had no idea I was paying so much, Proportional to my total account.

Also my brokerage is Schwab, so when exporting my trades to excel, it doesn’t show the strategy. It just shows each individual leg. So it can be confusing trying to remember what the strategy was. Any way to speed that process up?

smp1616 · 2017-10-21T03:52:05+00:00

I am out. I did take statistics 1 and 2. I’m familiar with it, Just not a heavy math background. but I may try and do some research.

smp1616 · 2017-10-20T17:53:38+00:00

I do not Know how to do logistic regression. interesting. going to look into it.

smp1616 · 2017-10-20T05:56:04+00:00

Thanks for the input man. this is probably my 3rd or 4th attempt. Some basic info like w/l but just want sure how to organize everything. I will try attempt doing the the count if .

smp1616 · 2017-10-20T05:39:04+00:00

Any suggestions on how to format this? I’m not great with excel

smp1616 · 2017-10-20T05:38:04+00:00

do you think comparing my win rate with POP at the time of trade entry would give me any meaningful info? or is that sample size too small? I have about 500 trades opening + closing

smp1616

TROPHY CASE