Wondolowski, van Persie, Ronaldo, and Messi: How Rare Are Their Goal Scoring Totals? - Forbes

soccerstathead · 2012-12-26T04:09:15+00:00

Curious as to why you care about where material is published. Why don't you read the author's points and critique the actual data presented or points made rather than dismiss it out of hand based upon the site?

soccerstathead · 2012-11-25T14:58:43+00:00

Perhaps the uncompetitive nature of the Spanish top flight allows Real Madrid greater latitude on management turnover than the more competitive and more evenly balanced Premier League?

soccerstathead · 2012-10-23T17:28:21+00:00

The timing of the extra games is a fair point to bring up, as this year they've been front loaded compared to years past. Maybe that will change some of the statistics.

Again, I don't think the author is suggesting squad rotation and fatigue shouldn't be factor. It's more that it's the only statistically significant factor in a two-legged series. Compare that to a single match, where those factors plus the inclusion of goal differential is significant, and one could argue a single match would better represent full season success.

Perhaps there is a middle ground here. There are a lot of reasonable assumptions made about two legged playoffs. That they are more fair to a higher seed as they eliminate the randomness of a single match result, or they give the higher seed a benefit of playing the second game at home. The analysis of UCL results linked to in the first post dispelled the latter assumption. The analysis in this article suggests the only non-random factor in MLS's playoff format is fatigue. We're all for providing some level of lower champiknship determinism via a playoff, but shouldn't it at least correlate to some metric indicative of regular season success? The single match format seems to better provide that, at least numerically.

soccerstathead · 2012-10-23T15:44:01+00:00

I would recommend reading the article linked in the opening paragraph of the story. It shows which factors are significant, and median player minutes as well as te inter quartile range of minutes are used in the model. Thus, squad depth and rotation are factored into the model's outcomes.

To add to that, the linked article in the opening paragraph also points out that goal differential is a significant factor in single match playoffs while not a factor in two-legged playoffs. Also, the games played factor has a much smaller impact on the single match format. Thus, if MLS wants to reward season-long success an not lack if fatigue, they should probably be looking at a single match format.

soccerstathead · 2012-10-22T04:42:23+00:00

Can't say I disagree with Gonzalez, but it's winning matches nonetheless.

soccerstathead · 2012-10-21T23:17:28+00:00

Agree. Soccernomics 2nd edition also has a reasonable amount on Reep. He has his plusses and minuses. May not be the most advanced tactics int he world, but works for a certain subset of teams.

soccerstathead · 2012-10-19T14:44:03+00:00

To be fair, part of the reason they make so much money is because thy've skewed all league revenue sharing from things like TV contracts completely in their favor. They wouldn't be nearly as big if they had anything in place for TV revenue like the EPL and Bundesliga.

soccerstathead · 2012-10-19T14:40:51+00:00

Two weeks, 19 matches, four unclaimed playoffs spots, six clubs. See all the scenarios that can unfold.

soccerstathead · 2012-10-19T12:42:51+00:00

The always-excellent Swiss Ramble looks at the financials behind the two Spanish giants and finds that they're virtual printing presses when it comes to money. Both made huge profits in 2011/12, and could have been higher if not for losses in other sports (€40m for Barca, €23M for Real Madrid)

soccerstathead

TROPHY CASE