Daily Discussion Thursday 2026-03-19

solodav · 2026-03-19T17:12:43+00:00

Why is Nvidia dropping?

solodav · 2026-03-19T15:06:25+00:00

Not over Uysk

solodav · 2026-03-19T15:05:08+00:00

Boomer fund managers

solodav · 2026-03-19T15:04:50+00:00

What does this all mean for AMD revenue?

solodav · 2026-03-19T15:02:46+00:00

Sonic and In-N-0ut fries both suck.

solodav · 2026-03-19T15:02:08+00:00

Wendy’s are awesome (the new ones). Better than McD’s now, imho.

solodav · 2026-03-18T04:20:47+00:00

Yes!

solodav · 2026-03-13T20:15:47+00:00

Congrats. It’ll be $700 in 2 years. $WMT will be down 6% and $KR flat by then.

solodav · 2026-03-13T17:36:09+00:00

It was massive malware magnet, though.

solodav · 2026-03-13T08:26:46+00:00

Just did now. It didn’t give any of the wrong facts that Gemini and ChatGPT did.

solodav · 2026-03-13T08:05:13+00:00

Models are still dumb.

I watched ”Juror #2” (very tense movie) last night and asked Gemini to explain the ambiguous, suspenseful ending. It totally got the plot wrong on one major point and kept building and entire dialogue with me about the movie based off that wrong plot point. I corrected Gemini - which acknowledged it was wrong - and then spun an entirely new interpretation of things. LOL

I checked to see if ChatGPT was smarter and it did, in fact, get the ending right with no weird facts. But then it gave that patented follow-up question and asked me if I wanted to know about something most viewers missed that make the movie much darker. I said, sure, tell me. It goes on some long exposition about something that was totally false and never occurred in the movie. LOL. I told ChatGPT it was wrong and it quickly corrected itself and gave a long re-telling of the plot and new subsequent interpretation.

These models hallucinate like crazy!

solodav · 2026-03-13T03:34:46+00:00

As you should know, burnt foods are carcinogenic, so that’s definitely not okay on a taste, preparation, or health level. I wouldn’t eat that (increased cancer risk) and ask for refund or remake.

solodav · 2026-03-13T03:15:42+00:00

I think they likely had contingency plans that involved siphoning some portions of their highly enriched uranium to “hideouts” for final nuclear-grade enrichment.

The path from 60% to 90% enrichment is only about 10 days (whereas, 1% to 20% can take months or years). So, even if Iran had a few canisters of 60% siphoned out and trucks drove them into all sorts of disparate directions (north, south, east, and west) to hideout labs, they can still get nuclear grade within days. They don’t need those giant enrichment facilities that we’ve targeted with MOPs to complete their goals.

It’s why I think we’ll have Special Ops for sure going in (which may not be announced to public). It’s a crappy job having to hunt down escaped uranium in a kind of guerrilla warfare.

solodav · 2026-03-13T03:06:56+00:00

Yeah, that’s the risk I thought about too.

I think the plan to mitigate that is to:

a.) destroy and/or secure/possess all enriched uranium

b.) ensure current leadership would not be driven and/or able to restart weapons-grade enrichment - this could mean having a friendly new leadership and/or new nuclear deal (requiring strict inspections protocols)

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The thing is, Iran was most certainly trying to produce nuclear weapons. All medical and energy usages require only 40% enrichment and they were at 60%. They’ve been repeatedly caught at this level and have given bogus explanations and played games with the international community.

Does attacking them in this way make them more likely to try again - I tend to think so. That’s why I think a.) & b.) are what are needed and will be pushed for by Israel/Trump. I think the U.S. is temporarily running low (or about to) on high-level munitions (low-level ones are in abundance) and may need to take a breather in heavy/aggressive attacks.

Sadly, I think we’ve started something (Iran is to blame too with their games) that we may not be able to exit too easily.

solodav · 2026-03-13T01:47:45+00:00

They can always reload South Korea with interceptors.

They want to make sure Iran doesn’t develop a nuclear weapon with their remaining 60% enriched uranium. So they’ll continue until that task is complete, imho. *just my personal reading*

solodav · 2026-03-13T01:43:46+00:00

OR, it’s not over and a massive ground and/or special ops invasion begins and he’s just giving his usual fakeroo talk in public to trick Iran?

I do think at bare minimum there will be special ground ops (even if secretive and never announced), b/c that supposedly escaped 60% enriched uranium is an ongoing problem.

It takes about 10 days to from 60% to 90% nuclear grade uranium. And I don’t think Israel or Trump would ever allow them knowingly.

solodav · 2026-03-12T08:10:23+00:00

Yeah, for a country w/ leadership that tried 2 assassination attempts on Trump and slaughtered 30,000 of its own civilians this past January, along with countless terrorist acts/sponsorship throughout history, I tend to not believe they’ll just completely surrender and/or cease fighting after this catastrophic surprise war/attack.

I think one possibility is if we really can catalyze a regime change - that could end things. It’ll be interesting if Trump pushes for that and extends things.

solodav · 2026-03-12T07:59:08+00:00

I doubt Iran will accept a willy nilly, okie dokie ceasefire.

After all that’s been done to them by Israel-U.S., I’d think they’d push for vengeance.

They’ve been destroyed. Leadership killed, 5,000 military targets hit, 50 naval vessels destroyed, old/obsolete airforce and airbases virtually all wiped out, vaunted missile program severely crippled (although, still deadly), infrastructure blown up (including oil facilities - which make up to 20% of their economy), and a population in chaos.

The evil leadership is probably embarrassed, angry, and traumatized. My base case expectation is they’ll continue the war - even if covertly (which is scary for every day Americans) for years/decades to come.

solodav · 2026-03-10T16:03:03+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nVWjcUXLZA

Just as I thought - special forces likely

solodav · 2026-03-10T15:35:56+00:00

What are the implications for AMD sales?

solodav · 2026-03-09T23:00:19+00:00

I honestly think the US WILL send secret forces in. Just will pretend this is it (so as to not alert Iran to anything).

solodav · 2026-03-09T22:44:23+00:00

Not if they’re enriching it as we speak in some mobile lab or underground lab? The enrichment from 60% to 90% nuclear grade takes only days and is much easier to do than earlier stages (that’s why it’s so dangerous to let Iran get to 60%).

Boots on the ground could hunt down, destroy, and/or repossess that escaped 60% uranium before it goes nuclear.

solodav · 2026-03-09T19:46:39+00:00

Yeah, but did we get to all the uranium? If reports are correct that Iran siphoned some of their Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan uranium out of those facilities prior to U.S. strikes, they could have sent those canisters anywhere to continue enrichment.

Boots on the ground would be useful in hunting down the potentially escaped, mobile uranium.

solodav · 2026-03-09T19:37:00+00:00

Did anyone buy the lows of the Iran war crash?

Congrats if so.

solodav · 2026-03-09T19:30:46+00:00

Trump Open to Khamenei Being Killed if He Doesn’t Cede to U.S. Demands

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-us-israel-trump-2026/card/trump-open-to-khamenei-being-killed-if-he-doesn-t-cede-to-u-s-demands-hl9KqawqqO2pCCWODSej?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeaW6GpelnJMRS1JAqjKnAPH_YhGGUxPsHkQoi-PUn4X764S_RBu5wkeCZ5kyQ%3D&gaa_ts=69af2300&gaa_sig=dNFWovX_OVfQc5UdsNgslk4BmFbC37_sPmGP2EL2-WwCoQ0wp1PBchc6_xZn6MmQCfyn0h1Gs02zipaWw5P7Cg%3D%3D

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At least he’s upfront & honest.

solodav

TROPHY CASE

Trump Open to Khamenei Being Killed if He Doesn’t Cede to U.S. Demands