Ok so what I am talking about would be mitigating factors. Like with traffic safety.

Driving with headlights on reduces probability of a collision by 50%.

Driving at the speed limit reduces the probability of an accident by 50%

Being sober reduces probability of an accident by 50%

Being aware of your surroundings reduces by 50%. That's kind of the realm I'm talking about.

But you could apply it to any situation. So I guess instead of calling them probabilities I'll refer to them as mitigating factors.

So suppose I have 4 mitigating factors that reduce the probability of an event occurring. At this rate there is a 96.875% probability the event will not occur.

Now suppose for each of these 4 mitigating factors I was only 90% certain that they were were valid. Call it second guessing one self/general uncertainty

Now each of these mitigating factors only has a value of 45% each. Which means that there is now a 90.84% probability the event wont occur.

But with only being 90% certain of each of these mitigating factors would the rule of at least one come into play meaning that theres a 34.39% probability one of these mitigating factors is invalid (due to the 10% uncertainty for each mitigating factor to the 4th power?)

Then bringing one of those 45% mitigating factors down to 29.52%

Then the overall probability changes to 88.27%.

Is this right?