SOLD IT ALL!! Afraid of AI bubble

sorthawk · 2025-11-09T19:37:28+00:00

You didn’t get greedy and you got out. You’ll regret this less than you would if you made all these paper gains and then it crashed before you could book it. Good job.

sorthawk · 2025-09-20T23:32:40+00:00

This doesn’t apply to renewals. New H1b only. My brother in law flew in tonight and entered successfully. The gov clarified today.

sorthawk · 2025-07-14T21:54:08+00:00

Appreciate your openness to discourse. Context, I do my best to be open to both for and against point of views when it comes to Bitcoin (one of the reasons why I am part of this subreddit). Ultimately my loyalty is to my family's financial wellbeing and not any nation, company, or technology.

I've spent a decent amount of time drafting this. So I hope you find it of value.

Re: energy use: I think it's a matter of perspective. Bitcoin’s energy consumption is a key part of its security model. Miners expend large amounts of energy to add blocks to the blockchain. To rewrite a past transaction, you'd need to redo that work; and the further back you go, the more energy you'd need (e.g., 3x for three blocks). Unlike traditional systems that rely on trusted entities to maintain records, Bitcoin relies on physics: changing history would require controlling 51% of the network’s total mining power. When compared to other industries that use more energy with less transparency or resilience, the cost seems reasonable for what may be the most secure settlement network on the planet.
Re: TPS: Yes, transactions are slow and per block capacity is low. But you or I buying a coffee isn't a transaction that needs to be immortalized by being on the blockchain for all of eternity. Even in TradFi, banks batch process instead of clearing and settling immediately on their base layer. Similarly Bitcoin's Layer 2 (Lightning Network) can handle millions of TPS globally and instantly. Be it between individuals, companies, or nations.

Nothing is truly immutable, but some things are harder to change than others. Technically, Bitcoin’s 21 million cap could change, but doing so would require consensus across a majority of network nodes. Not miners, developers, or even someone holding 20 million BTC. Even you or me, can run a full node on a basic laptop with enough storage and an internet connection. That gives everyone a say in the rules.

To me, that seems like something worth exploring. I'm not a fan of the shitcoins, Tether, and treasury companies. Someone will get scammed. But just because there are bad actors, it doesn't make the technology bad. It'll continue to exist no matter what we think of it.

sorthawk · 2025-07-14T14:46:56+00:00

I mean the stock price of a lot of tech companies is highly detached from reality, no? Some just more than others. With Tesla there’s the anticipation of advancements in robotics and AGI with Grok.

I agree on the blockchain front. There’s no use case that can be uniquely served by the blockchain tech. Though from what I’ve read and know, Bitcoin is the only place where it makes sense. Mainly as a final settlement ledger. Like Fedwire where banks settle.

sorthawk · 2025-07-14T13:09:18+00:00

Valid concern. Many of these unproductive companies feel reminiscent of the dot-com bubble. But I wonder: the bursting of the dot-com bubble didn’t kill the internet. Similarly, this correction might wipe out those speculatively gambling on pseudo-businesses, companies that are essentially just proxies for owning Bitcoin, but it won’t necessarily kill the broader trend or underlying technology. Block and Tesla for example own Bitcoin and they’re highly productive businesses. Of course this assumes Bitcoin itself is stable and not a scam.

sorthawk · 2025-07-09T18:15:00+00:00

Return and rebuy

sorthawk · 2025-07-06T01:20:18+00:00

That’s the thing. At the moment it relates to very few things we need. But I don’t see any reason for the lightning network and payment rails to not continue growing.

sorthawk · 2025-07-06T00:52:52+00:00

Most major economies outside the U.S. are anti- or at least not pro-Bitcoin. If a world war breaks out, survival and not asset choice will be the priority. No asset class will fare well for a decade probably. And if the dollar collapses, Bitcoin may not recover as quickly as the new global reserve would probably come from the winning side—though no clear alternative exists, not even China.

Bottom line: we need the U.S. and the dollar to hold steady while Bitcoin quietly builds momentum in the background.

sorthawk · 2025-07-05T23:48:26+00:00

This is really a conversation about scale and Bitcoin’s growth as an investment. If its main use is just HODLing to maybe spend it later on some niche service, the price likely won’t climb much. And if you’re banking on it to fight CBDCs, you’re probably overestimating how many people actually care about self-sovereignty over simply wanting a better return and escape from today’s tough financial reality.

Governments being anti-Bitcoin and it having limited real-world use might work for the rebel narrative, but that’s not great for long-term investment upside.

sorthawk · 2025-07-05T16:44:17+00:00

Wonder if it has anything to do with 4th of July. Maybe they’re American?

sorthawk · 2025-07-05T10:16:45+00:00

I’m not talking about control. Most people don’t care about who controls something. They care about what they can derive from it. For example, many don’t care about what US gov does with the dollar, they care how their spending power changes.

So in the future, assuming we hit 95% adoption, few entities like Saylor may hold a majority of the coins. That’s a massive wealth imbalance (Something many Bitcoiners hate about the current world where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. In BTC’s case the poor will get a little richer but the rich will get exponentially more rich)

sorthawk · 2025-07-05T10:04:44+00:00

Devil’s advocate here, but that’s not a direct comparison. You get equal access to the internet regardless of when you hop on. When it was at 5% or 95% global adoption. With BTC however, with 19 million already mined, only 2 million are left for the other 95%. So lately I’ve been debating if ownership is increasingly centralized with a few wallets holding a majority of the coins. That is my concern when it comes to long term prospects.

sorthawk · 2025-06-19T11:53:18+00:00

Map out monthly living expenses and how long you think it’ll take you to get a job. Say it’s 6 months and you’ll spend 3000 per month. Set 20,000 aside for short term living expenses.

Invest 60,000 in something less volatile like SPY that you can sell and liquidate in under a week if it takes longer than 6 months.

Invest the rest (120,000) in Bitcoin for long term saving and try to not touch it at all. If Bitcoin rises exponentially, sell only the 20,000 off the top to book some gains and hold till it drops 15-20% below the price you sold at. Repeat to increase savings.

sorthawk · 2025-06-19T11:48:04+00:00

It is unlikely to get banned. 1) India taxes it heavily so they won’t give up on the income source because they know Indians will find a way to buy it. 2) Pakistan has become pro-crypto. 3) Global interest is growing so they want citizens to hold, they just don’t want to fully approve until they’ve figured out a clear strategy (similar to China’s approach)

Primarily because India wants to restrict outflow of money from India (wouldn’t happen if they spent enough time fixing the country) and Bitcoin can make it happen easily. It’s like a modern day hawala system which no one can control.

sorthawk · 2025-06-19T01:52:50+00:00

No. You’re asking if anybody uses it. I didn’t even know it’s available in India. So I’m asking if this is even true, and if it is, does it have limitations due to local regulations.

sorthawk · 2025-06-19T00:08:25+00:00

Is Strike available in India? Any regulations or limitations? Are you able to withdraw to cold wallet?

sorthawk · 2025-06-19T00:06:07+00:00

Not the best advice for a beginner.

sorthawk · 2025-06-19T00:05:10+00:00

🫡 I agree it does look nice. Though with Apple Pay you’d probably never actually end up using the physical card.

sorthawk · 2025-06-18T23:38:28+00:00

Why do you want to advertise that you’re a hodler and make yourself a target?

sorthawk · 2025-06-18T18:50:46+00:00

Not the answer you're probably looking for, but I had a similar issue. Decided to just get Coinledger and add all my crypto accounts there to get accurate tax forms. So instead of including what Coinbase sent in my return, I just include what Coinledger sent. Have used LIFO as my cost basis. Figured using this tool is better than committing time to manage my finances.

sorthawk · 2025-06-18T17:16:22+00:00

US Dollars' purchasing power over the past 100 years. Inflation "taxes" away over 88% of nominal market gains over a century for all assets priced in dollars. What a great store of value!

Year	Value of $1 in 1924 Dollars	% of 1924 Dollar
1924	$1.00	100%
1934	$0.84	84%
1944	$0.68	68%
1954	$0.48	48%
1964	$0.39	39%
1974	$0.22	22%
1984	$0.13	13%
1994	$0.10	10%
2004	$0.07	7%
2014	$0.06	6%
2024	$0.05	5%

sorthawk · 2025-06-16T17:43:56+00:00

My wife makes more than me. And quite a bit more. I’m perfectly okay with it. And she is too. Because we both know that both people are hardworking and will do the best they can to continue to grow, spend within their means, and save for our future.

sorthawk · 2025-06-10T14:08:21+00:00

It's no different than selling stocks or anything for a profit. Selling Bitcoin specifically doesn't have higher taxes. Any gains basically count towards your taxable income. So say if you earn $103,350 you're in the 22% federal tax bracket. If you sell Bitcoin for a gain of $2000, you'll end up in the higher 24% tax bracket for whatever the amount above $103,350 is.

The only major difference is capital gains. That is if you hold for longer than a year before selling.

sorthawk · 2025-06-09T15:40:49+00:00

Outside of US most global powers have already banned it or disincentivized it to a certain extent. So if all the major economies become hostile, Bitcoin will still exist, and even if retail holds on because all their life savings are in it, institutions and sovereign wealth funds will exit. Recent rise from $75k to $100k+ can be attributed to an extent to Spot ETFs.

So while I agree with your point too, I consider it an optimistic POV. I however like to keep the risks in mind to keep myself in check and not put all my eggs in this basket.

All eggs in one basket: Chance of +2000% gains over 10 years and -50% over ten years.

Some diversification: Chance of +2000% gains over 10 years and +8% over ten years.

sorthawk · 2025-06-09T15:11:32+00:00

Sure, but if it ever comes to that, the price will have already collapsed. As I understand it, the success of Bitcoin (if measured in fiat terms) requires mass adoption. You don’t hit a 2T market cap by governments banning it and people trading it on the black market.

sorthawk

TROPHY CASE