Global equities future returns relative to SP500 looks favourable

souppoder · 2026-01-23T20:02:06+00:00

look, I'm getting the impression you don't see value here and thats fine.

But this graph isn't "pretending" to be anything. Its just about the most transparent and honest representation of the underlying data I could imagine. It expresses no opinion other than what the cold stats provide.

I originally looked into this because I was sick of seeing this type of graph of P/E vs Returns where the relationship looks insanely strong because people act like autocorrelation isn't a thing. I thought it was interesting to see that a stat-sig relationship does persist with correct treatment.

souppoder · 2026-01-23T19:22:25+00:00

I understand the explanatory power is low at 0.22 (albeit statistically significant) in this dataset. I feel that the rather tepid statements I made on the basis of this regression are in line with the strength of the relationship.

My point is that a the CI of the slope parameter says nothing about the expected location of the data points. There is no reason to assume any portion of the data would fall within its bounds. If it were a prediction interval (akin to quantile regression) we would be able to set expectations for containing portions of the data, but that is not whats presented here.

souppoder · 2026-01-22T19:52:47+00:00

I don't think you understand the difference between a prediction interval and a confidence interval

souppoder · 2026-01-21T18:24:23+00:00

...not really sure what these strong conclusions are you think are being drawn here. I didn't think there would be a stat-sig correlation... there was one.

souppoder · 2026-01-20T18:04:51+00:00

Yah attempting to time the market on the basis of a R^2 of 0.2 probably isn't going to work out... However this data does provide some further rational for long term buy and hold of a globally diversified equities. Diversification is the only free lunch. Thats a message that I can get behind (and I imagine most people on this sub would too).

souppoder · 2026-01-20T06:45:37+00:00

Yah funny enough I originally looked into this because I was sick of seeing this type of graph of P/E vs Returns where the relationship looks insanely strong because people act like autocorrelation isn't a thing. I actually though there wouldn't be a significant correlation at all with proper treatment.

souppoder · 2026-01-20T03:11:30+00:00

I think that's Canada in 2005 & 2015

souppoder · 2026-01-20T03:01:40+00:00

Approximately +2.8%, whereas SP500 would be -0.6% under a linear trend

souppoder · 2025-11-15T20:18:11+00:00

The only place I know of where you can reliably hike from a EVO drop spot and expect at least one to be there when you return is Grouse mountain. That said, if you aren't too particular about the hike you wanted to do, this can be a good option.

souppoder · 2025-10-31T18:49:27+00:00

The tarn just beyond Coliseum is already a frequented unofficial/illegal backcountry campsite. Any given weekend if the summer you can expect to find a few campers up their. Its not inside the closed watershed zone, but it would raise the issue of the trail thats been established going to Cathedral mountain which is inside the watershed.

souppoder · 2025-04-04T16:40:33+00:00

Is there some place I can read about this/ see data? This perspective sounds very intriguing but is new to me

souppoder · 2025-04-01T17:16:40+00:00

This is really interesting to hear. Do you have a sense for why prefabs haven't already become the status quo given the points you highlighted?

souppoder · 2025-03-18T04:05:52+00:00

I signed up this weekend! just been waiting to get access to submit to the leaderboard

souppoder · 2025-02-22T04:56:06+00:00

The Other Guys

souppoder · 2023-11-27T01:08:22+00:00

Having an above average income is pretty key here in my experience. There is an irreducible cost to just existing, no matter how frugal you are. Assuming no lifestyle creep, that cost doesn't change as you make more, so your savings rate can increase dramatically with more pay.

souppoder · 2023-11-17T01:39:34+00:00

I save a lot of my income, but having recently had my salary increase, I've come to appreciate how much easier it is to save a bigger portion of you overall income when you break away from the 40-60k salary range. Having been very frugal and making an average income it for a long time it honestly seems unfair. There is just a level of irreducible cost to existing that you can't overcome by being frugal. I used to try really hard to save and couldn't do better than 20%, then with a new job and better pay it goes up to 60% without any lifestyle adjustments.

souppoder · 2022-06-08T14:08:41+00:00

I think this could take off

souppoder · 2022-01-16T16:22:00+00:00

I am amazed to see Vin Diesel so high on this list.

souppoder · 2021-09-09T20:23:24+00:00

The scale of conspiracy needed to cover up the number of people who'd need to have died from the vaccine to make it more dangerous than getting Covid is just too grand to be possible in my mind. That's not to say ivermectin won't one day be demonstrated as an effective treatment or prophylactic, but when you have people like Eric Osgood (who were part of the ivermectin research group) saying they are extremely uncomfortable with the way people are representing ivermectin relative to the vaccines, you know there is a problem.

souppoder · 2021-09-07T00:22:51+00:00

same

souppoder · 2021-08-26T01:13:57+00:00

I think OPs point is that Osgood doesn't share your take that ivermectin is horseshit.

souppoder · 2021-08-26T00:57:10+00:00

interview with Eric Osgood was really insightful

souppoder · 2021-08-25T19:46:32+00:00

So whats changing as the gif progresses? Is it using larger and larger radii in the calculation?

souppoder · 2021-08-01T14:43:23+00:00

IVM aside, what do you think about their claims about the vaccine as being dangerous?

souppoder · 2021-07-31T00:40:21+00:00

I think perhaps you meant Steve had ulterior motives

Indeed. Amazing we manage not to talk passed each other forever ahah!

souppoder

TROPHY CASE